Combining environmental DNA and visual surveys can inform conservation planning for coral reefs.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding has the potential to revolutionize conservation planning by providing spatially and taxonomically comprehensive data on biodiversity and ecosystem conditions, but its utility to inform the design of protected areas remains untested. Here, we quantify whether and how identifying conservation priority areas within coral reef ecosystems differs when biodiversity information is collected via eDNA analyses or traditional visual census records. We focus on 147 coral reefs in Indonesia's hyper-diverse Wallacea region and show large discrepancies in the allocation and spatial design of conservation priority areas when coral reef species were surveyed with underwater visual techniques (fishes, corals, and algae) or eDNA metabarcoding (eukaryotes and metazoans). Specifically, incidental protection occurred for 55% of eDNA species when targets were set for species detected by visual surveys and 71% vice versa. This finding is supported by generally low overlap in detection between visual census and eDNA methods at species level, with more overlap at higher taxonomic ranks. Incomplete taxonomic reference databases for the highly diverse Wallacea reefs, and the complementary detection of species by the two methods, underscore the current need to combine different biodiversity data sources to maximize species representation in conservation planning.

Testing for concordance between predicted species richness, past prioritization, and marine protected area designations in the western Indian Ocean.

Scientific advances in environmental data coverage and machine learning algorithms have improved the ability to make large-scale predictions where data are missing. These advances allowed us to develop a spatially resolved proxy for predicting numbers of tropical nearshore marine taxa. A diverse marine environmental spatial database was used to model numbers of taxa from ∼1000 field sites, and the predictions were applied to all 7039 6.25-km2 reef cells in 9 ecoregions and 11 nations of the western Indian Ocean. Our proxy for total numbers of taxa was based on the positive correlation (r2 = 0.24) of numbers of taxa of hard corals and 5 highly diverse reef fish families. Environmental relationships indicated that the number of fish species was largely influenced by biomass, nearness to people, governance, connectivity, and productivity and that coral taxa were influenced mostly by physicochemical environmental variability. At spatial delineations of province, ecoregion, nation, and strength of spatial clustering, we compared areas of conservation priority based on our total species proxy with those identified in 3 previous priority-setting reports and with the protected area database. Our method identified 119 locations that fit 3 numbers of taxa (hard coral, fish, and their combination) and 4 spatial delineations (nation, ecoregion, province, and reef clustering) criteria. Previous publications on priority setting identified 91 priority locations of which 6 were identified by all reports. We identified 12 locations that fit our 12 criteria and corresponded with 3 previously identified locations, 65 that aligned with at least 1 past report, and 28 that were new locations. Only 34% of the 208 marine protected areas in this province overlapped with identified locations with high numbers of predicted taxa. Differences occurred because past priorities were frequently based on unquantified perceptions of remoteness and preselected priority taxa. Our environment-species proxy and modeling approach can be considered among other important criteria for making conservation decisions.

Evaluación de la concordancia entre la riqueza de especies pronosticada, priorizaciones pasadas y la designación de áreas marinas protegidas en el oeste del Océano Índico Resumen Los avances científicos en la cobertura de datos ambientales y los algoritmos de aprendizaje automatizado han mejorado la capacidad de predecir a gran escala cuando hacen falta datos. Estos avances nos permiten desarrollar un representante con resolución espacial para predecir la cantidad de taxones marinos en las costas tropicales. Usamos una base de datos espaciales de diversos ambientes marinos para modelar la cantidad de taxones a partir de ∼1000 sitios de campo y aplicamos las predicciones a las 7039 celdas arrecifales de 6.25­km2 en nueve ecorregiones y once países del oeste del Océano Índico. Nuestro representante para la cantidad total de taxones se basó en la correlación positiva (r2=0.24) de la cantidad de taxones de corales duros y cinco familias de peces arrecifales con diversidad alta. Las relaciones ambientales indicaron que el número de especies de peces estuvo influenciado principalmente por la biomasa, la cercanía a las personas, la gestión, la conectividad y la productividad y que los taxones de coral estuvieron influenciados principalmente por la variabilidad ambiental fisicoquímica. Comparamos la prioridad de las áreas de conservación a nivel de las delimitaciones espaciales de provincia, ecorregión, nación y fuerza del agrupamiento espacial basado en nuestro total de especies representantes con aquellas especies identificadas en tres reportes previos de establecimiento de prioridades y con la base de datos de áreas protegidas. Con nuestro método identificamos 119 localidades aptas para tres cantidades de taxones (corales duros, peces y su combinación) y cuatro criterios de delimitación espacial (nación, ecorregión, provincia y grupo de arrecifes). Las publicaciones previas sobre el establecimiento de prioridades identificaron 91 localidades prioritarias de las cuales seis fueron identificadas por todos los reportes. Identificamos doce localidades que se ajustan a nuestros doce criterios y se correspondieron con tres localidades identificadas previamente, 65 que se alinearon con al menos un reporte anterior y 28 que eran nuevas localidades. Sólo 34% de las 208 áreas marinas protegidas en esta provincia se traslaparon con localidades identificadas con un gran número de taxones pronosticados. Hubo diferencias porque en el pasado se priorizaba frecuentemente con base en las percepciones no cuantificadas de lo remoto y prioritario de los taxones preseleccionados. Nuestra especie representante del ambiente y nuestra estrategia de modelo pueden considerarse entre otros criterios importantes para tomar decisiones de conservación.

A spatially explicit assessment of factors shaping attitudes toward African elephant conservation.

Conservation plans that explicitly account for the social landscape where people and wildlife co-occur can yield more effective and equitable conservation practices and outcomes. Yet, social data remain underutilized, often because social data are treated as aspatial or are analyzed with approaches that do not quantify uncertainty or address bias in self-reported data. We conducted a survey (questionnaires) of 177 households in a multiuse landscape in the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands. In a mixed-methods approach, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify and map local attitudes toward African elephant (Loxodonta africana) conservation while accounting for response bias and then combined inference from attitude models with thematic analysis of open-ended responses and cointerpretation of results with local communities to gain deeper understanding of what explains attitudes of people living with wildlife. Model estimates showed that believing elephants have sociocultural value increased the probability of respondents holding positive attitudes toward elephant conservation in general (mean increase = 0.31 [95% credible interval, CrI, 0.02-0.67]), but experiencing negative impacts from any wildlife species lowered the probability of respondents holding a positive attitude toward local elephant conservation (mean decrease = -0.20 [95% CrI -0.42 to 0.03]). Qualitative data revealed that safety and well-being concerns related to the perceived threats that elephants pose to human lives and livelihoods, and limited incentives to support conservation on community and private lands lowered positive local attitude probabilities and contributed to negative perceptions of human-elephant coexistence. Our spatially explicit modeling approach revealed fine-scale variation in drivers of conservation attitudes that can inform targeted conservation planning. Our results suggest that approaches focused on sustaining existing sociocultural values and relationships with wildlife, investing in well-being, and implementing species-agnostic approaches to wildlife impact mitigation could improve conservation outcomes in shared landscapes.

Un análisis espacialmente explícito de los factores que influyen sobre la actitud hacia la conservación del elefante africano Resumen Los planes de conservación que consideran de forma explícita el paisaje social en el que pueden convivir las personas y la fauna pueden generar prácticas y resultados de conservación más equitativos y efectivos. Aun así, los datos sociales todavía están subutilizados con frecuencia porque se manejan como si no tuvieran espacialidad o se analizan con enfoques que no cuantifican la incertidumbre o no abordan el sesgo de los datos auto reportados. Encuestamos a 177 hogares en un paisaje multiusos en la frontera entre Kenia y Tanzania. Usamos modelos jerárquicos bayesianos en un enfoque de métodos mixtos para cuantificar y mapear la actitud local hacia la conservación del elefante africano (Loxodonta africana). A la vez consideramos el sesgo de respuesta y después combinamos la interferencia de los modelos de actitud con el análisis temático de las respuestas abiertas y la cointerpretación de los resultados con las comunidades locales para obtener un entendimiento más profundo de lo que explica la actitud de las personas que conviven con la fauna. Las estimaciones de los modelos mostraron que la creencia de que los elefantes tienen un valor sociocultural incrementó la probabilidad de que los respondientes tuvieran actitudes positivas hacia su conservación en general (incremento promedio = 0.31 [95% intervalo creíble [ICr] 0.02−0.67]), pero experimentar los impactos negativos de cualquier especie de fauna disminuyó la probabilidad de que los respondientes tuvieran una actitud positiva hacia la conservación local del elefante (disminución promedio = ­0.20 [95% ICr ­0.42−0.03]). Los datos cualitativos revelaron que la inquietud por la seguridad y el bienestar relacionada con las amenazas percibidas que representan los elefantes para las personas y su sustento, así como los incentivos limitados para apoyar la conservación en tierras comunitarias y privadas, disminuyó la probabilidad de una actitud local positiva y contribuyó a la percepción negativa de la coexistencia entre humanos y elefantes. Nuestro enfoque de modelo espacialmente explícito reveló una variación a pequeña escala de los factores de la actitud de conservación que pueden informar a la planeación de la conservación focalizada. Nuestros resultados sugieren que las estrategias enfocadas en mantener los valores socioculturales existentes y las relaciones con la fauna, invertir en el bienestar e implementar estrategias agnósticas de las especies a la mitigación del impacto de la fauna podría mejorar los resultados de conservación en los paisajes compartidos.

Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change.

Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.

Diversificación de los tipos de refugio necesarios para asegurar el futuro de los arrecifes de coral sujetos al cambio climático Resumen Una de las principales recomendaciones para la adaptación al cambio climático es identificar los refugios de los arrecifes de coral frente al estrés térmico del cambio climático y mejorar su gestión. Revisamos y resumimos ∼30 años de investigación aplicada centrada en la identificación de refugios climáticos para priorizar las acciones de conservación de los arrecifes de coral bajo un rápido cambio climático. Descubrimos que los refugios climáticos propuestos actualmente y las ubicaciones que pueden evitarlos dependen en gran medida de métricas de exceso de calor, como las semanas de calentamiento en grados (SCG). Sin embargo, existen muchas variables alternativas de historia vital, ambientales y ecológicas que podrían utilizarse para identificar otros tipos de refugios que resulten en el acervo diversificado que se desea para la conservación de los arrecifes de coral. Para mejorar las prioridades de conservación de los arrecifes de coral, es necesario evaluar y validar las predicciones sobre refugios climáticos con datos de campo a largo plazo sobre abundancia, diversidad y funcionamiento de los corales. También es necesario identificar y salvaguardar lugares que muestren resistencia a la exposición climática prolongada a olas de calor y la capacidad de recuperarse rápidamente tras la exposición térmica. Recomendamos utilizar más métricas para identificar un acervo de posibles lugares de refugio para los arrecifes de coral que puedan evitar, resistir y recuperarse de la exposición a las altas temperaturas oceánicas y las consecuencias del cambio climático, para así desplazar los esfuerzos pasados centrados en la evitación hacia un acervo diversificado de riesgos que pueda utilizarse para mejorar la conservación estratégica de los arrecifes de coral en un clima que se calienta rápidamente.

Strengths and complementarity of systematic conservation planning and key biodiversity area approaches for spatial planning.

Developing biodiversity-inclusive spatial plans at a national level is the focus of Target 1 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF). There are 2 general approaches to identifying areas of value for biodiversity plans: criteria-based, such as the Key Biodiversity Areas (KBA) process, and systematic conservation planning (SCP) approaches, which apply complementarity to efficiently achieve specific quantitative targets. We examined the benefits of both approaches and considered how the KBA approach can best complement SCP. We reviewed 200 papers articles that applied SCP to real-world data with the Marxan conservation design software. Our review showed that targets for biodiversity elements are poorly selected in many SCP publications, with more than 75% of the studies applying uniform percentage target amounts to planning elements. Uniform targets favor more widespread species and ecosystems that are likely to be more common and less important for conservation. The strengths and complementarities of KBA and SCP approaches were reviewed and we identified the elements from both approaches that should be considered for spatial planning to achieve Target 1 in the KMGBF. In particular, the global approach of KBAs (i.e., identifying sites of global significance for species or ecosystems) better complements SCP, which often has a national or subnational focus. The KMGBF will fail if conservation of globally significant sites is not targeted and these sites are not incorporated in national spatial planning.

Fortalezas y complementariedad de la planeación sistemática de la conservación y el enfoque de áreas clave de biodiversidad para la planeación espacial Resumen El desarrollo de planes espaciales que incluyan la biodiversidad a escala nacional es el objetivo 1 del Marco Mundial de Biodiversidad Kunming­Montreal (KMGBF). Existen dos enfoques generales para identificar áreas de valor para los planes de biodiversidad: el basado en criterios, como el proceso de Áreas Clave para la Biodiversidad (ACB), y los enfoques de planificación sistemática de la conservación (PSC), que aplican la complementariedad para alcanzar eficazmente objetivos cuantitativos específicos. Analizamos las ventajas de ambos enfoques y estudiamos cómo el enfoque ACB puede complementar mejor la PSC. Revisamos 200 artículos que aplicaban el PSC a datos del mundo real con el software de diseño de conservación Marxan. Nuestra revisión mostró que las metas para los elementos de biodiversidad están mal seleccionadas en muchas publicaciones de PSC, con más del 75% de los estudios con cantidades porcentuales uniformes de metas a los elementos de planificación. Los objetivos uniformes favorecen a las especies y ecosistemas más extendidos que probablemente son más comunes y menos importantes para la conservación. Revisamos las fortalezas y las complementariedades de los enfoques ACB y PSC e identificamos los elementos de ambos enfoques que deben considerarse en la planificación espacial para alcanzar la meta 1 del KMGBF. En concreto, el enfoque global de las ACB (es decir, la identificación de lugares de importancia mundial para las especies o los ecosistemas) complementa mejor el PSC, que suele tener un enfoque nacional o subnacional. El KMGBF fracasará si no se tiene como objetivo la conservación de los lugares de importancia mundial y si estos lugares no se incorporan a la planificación espacial nacional.

Linking geodiversity and geosystem services to human well-being for the sustainable utilization of the subsurface and the urban environment.

Because the functions of the subsurface are hidden from view, its important role in society is often ignored or taken for granted. The subsurface is, however, an essential part of the global ecosystem with important contributions to human well-being. Geodiversity is an important characteristic in this respect. Material supply is the more obvious role of the subsurface with projections of a doubling of global material use in 2060 as compared to 2017. Moreover, creating underground spaces and infrastructure are gaining importance in the urban environment. The main reason for the inadequate protection of geodiversity is the lack of a comprehensive and integrative framework. Linking socio-economic activities to biophysical system characteristics of the subsurface is facilitated by the geosystem services approach. Sustainable urban development strategies require including geodiversity in decision-making on human well-being and setting conditions for land use change. Spatial plans and decisions on the use of natural endowments should look at processes over much longer timeframes. In this paper, we explore the links between human well-being and the subsurface with an emphasis on the role of geodiversity. We set out a methodological framework and describe possible long term three-dimensional land use planning consequences for sustainable utilization of the subsurface. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Geodiversity for science and society'.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and socio-ecological determinants of ecosystem service interplays in Shandong Province's coastal region (2000-2020): Implications for environmental protection and sustainable ecosystem management.

The sustainable management of multiple concurrent ecosystem services (ESs) requires a comprehensive understanding of the interconnections between various ESs. In this study, we develop spatial maps for six distinct ESs using a variety of models, and we quantify their trade-offs, synergies, and bundling patterns through spatial mapping and statistical methodologies. We further delve into the antagonistic and synergistic dynamics between different ESs within each Ecosystem Service Bundle (ESB), and employ GeoDetector to pinpoint the key drivers of each ES. Our findings reveal that: (1) The spatial distributions of ESs are heterogeneous, with most ESs exhibiting a downward trend except for GP and SC, which are on the rise. CS shows positive correlations with all other five ES indicators. HQ exhibits positive correlations with SC and RS, whereas negative correlations are observed between HQ-GP and WC-RS. Six ES pairs demonstrate a decline in synergistic relationships, but an increase in trade-off relationships. (2) We distinguish six types of ESBs, each differing in their combination and extent of ES provision. The trade-offs and synergies within these distinct ESBs display both commonalities and differences. In certain ESBs, supply services display synergistic relationships with other ESs. We leverage ES bundles as the foundation for studying spatial planning zoning, revealing a diversity in the interactions between different ES pairs and the driving factors of ES. Therefore, we establish the theoretical basis for formulating spatial planning on the interrelationships and drivers of ES under spatial and temporal changes. We anticipate that our findings will offer valuable scientific insight for the development of future ecological conservation and spatial planning strategies in the region.

Health impact assessment in two planning projects in England: reflections on normative effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: This article reports on research commissioned by (what was at the time) Public Health England (PHE). The objective is to reflect on the normative effectiveness of Health Impact Assessment (HIA) applied to two planning projects; (a) the new town at Cranbrook, Devon (HIA prepared in 2007), and (b) the regeneration of the Marsh farm area in Luton (HIA prepared in 2009). In this context, the focus is on the contribution of HIA to actions that are intended to lead to good or improved health and wellbeing. METHODS: Normative HIA effectiveness criteria derived from a literature review were used to guide the analysis. The two included HIA cases were previously identified as good practice examples with regards to procedure and report quality. Semi-structured interviews with public health, planning and other actors originally involved in the HIAs were conducted in 2021. This was followed up by web-searches for evidence on actual developments in 2023. RESULTS: Interviews indicated that normative effectiveness initially appeared to be high, but that the longer-term effects of the financial crash of 2008 reduced this. Delays in initially anticipated timelines and HIA actors moving elsewhere or retiring meant that HIAs were not followed-up and connections between developments and the HIAs were no longer made. However, web-based searches conducted in 2023 found that key HIA suggestions were eventually implemented, albeit with delay. There is also evidence for improved IMD (index of multiple deprivation) rankings in the Marsh farm regeneration case. CONCLUSION: A mismatch is observed with regards to HIA exercises appearing to be largely 'forgotten' after over a decade of their publication, but recommendations still being implemented, possibly as a result of 'institutional memory'. Making monitoring and follow-up of HIA binding rather than advisory would allow for direct linkages to be made.

Aquatic connectivity: challenges and solutions in a changing climate.

The challenge of managing aquatic connectivity in a changing climate is exacerbated in the presence of additional anthropogenic stressors, social factors, and economic drivers. Here we discuss these issues in the context of structural and functional connectivity for aquatic biodiversity, specifically fish, in both the freshwater and marine realms. We posit that adaptive management strategies that consider shifting baselines and the socio-ecological implications of climate change will be required to achieve management objectives. The role of renewable energy expansion, particularly hydropower, is critically examined for its impact on connectivity. We advocate for strategic spatial planning that incorporates nature-positive solutions, ensuring climate mitigation efforts are harmonized with biodiversity conservation. We underscore the urgency of integrating robust scientific modelling with stakeholder values to define clear, adaptive management objectives. Finally, we call for innovative monitoring and predictive decision-making tools to navigate the uncertainties inherent in a changing climate, with the goal of ensuring the resilience and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems.

Challenges and opportunities for implementing nature-based coastal protection in an urbanised coastal city based on public perceptions.

There has been an increase in recognition of the benefits of employing nature-based coastal protection strategies to adapt to the impacts of climate change (e.g., increased storminess, sea-level rise). To enable broader use of nature-based methods, coastal managers and policymakers need to consider the placement and social acceptance of any methods considered. Most published spatial planning models for nature-based coastal protection currently do not utilise social data during site selection. We conducted a public survey of 452 respondents from Singapore, a highly urbanised coastal city-state, to assess Singaporean's perceptions of climate change impacts on coastal areas and their support of nature-based coastal protection. We also assessed the respondents willingness to accept trade-offs for the prioritisation of nature-based coastal protection and subsequently spatially mapped them. The results showed a high awareness of the potential impacts of climate change on coastal areas. Nature-based coastal protection was highly supported as the associated benefits, such as protection of wildlife and their habitats and climate change reduction, were aligned with public values of coastal areas. However, nature-based coastal protection may not be prioritised over human-made structures due to the perception that they are less effective, and respondents may not be willing to undergo 1) replacement of their favourite coastal area, 2) increased taxes, and 3) relocation, for their prioritisation. Through spatially mapping the relevant trade-offs, we found that only 11.1% of coastal areas had moderate or high likelihood of social barriers to nature-based coastal protection, highlighting their potential in Singapore. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating social factors in government land use planning decisions.

A comparative analysis of methods and tools for low impact development (LID) site selection.

The site selection for Low Impact Development (LID) practices is a significant process. It affects the effectiveness of LID in controlling stormwater surface runoff, volume, flow rate, and infiltration. This research paper presents a comprehensive review of various methods used for LID site selection. It starts by introducing different methods and tools. Three main methods: index-based methods, GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), and multi-criteria models and tools, are discussed in detail. A comparative analysis of these methods is then conducted based on ten different criteria. These criteria include the number of variables, data properties, the scale of analysis, benefits maximization approach, multi-attribute decision analysis, user-friendliness, community and stakeholder participation, and the validation methods. This comparison reveals limitations in each method. These include inadequate data availability and quality, lack of evaluation methods, comprehensive assessment criteria and spatial explicitness. These challenges underscore the need for future research to prioritize spatial clarity, broaden criteria, improve data quality through standardization, incorporate field visits and remote sensing for robust results, integrate big data, and develop web-based, open-source tools for enhanced accessibility. These key strategies provide valuable insights for advancing LID site selection methods.

The impact of large-scale ecological restoration projects on trade-offs/synergies and clusters of ecosystem services.

Understanding the relationships between ecosystem services (ES) and the factors driving their changes over long periods and multiple scales is key for landscape managers in decision-making. However, the widespread implementation of restoration programs has led to significant ES changes, with trade-offs across space and time that have been little explored empirically, making it challenging to provide effective experience for managers. We quantified changes and interactions among five ES across various stages of the Grain-to-Green Program in the eastern Loess Plateau, examining these dynamics at threefold spatial scales. We observed notable increases in soil retention and Net Ecosystem Production but declines in habitat quality and Landscape aesthetics under afforestation. Over time, and with more integrated restoration strategies, synergies between ES pairs weakened, and non-correlations (even trade-offs) increased. To avoid unnecessary trade-offs, we recommend incorporating socio-ecological factors driving ES changes and ES bundles, informed by empirical experience, into proactive spatial planning and environmental management strategies for multi-ES objectives. The temporal lags and spatial trade-offs highlighted by this study offer crucial insights for large-scale restoration programs worldwide.

Operationalizing a fisheries social-ecological system through a Bayesian belief network reveals hotspots for its adaptive capacity in the southern North sea.

Fisheries social-ecological systems (SES) in the North Sea region confront multifaceted challenges stemming from environmental changes, offshore wind farm expansion, and marine protected area establishment. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of a Bayesian Belief Network (BN) approach in comprehensively capturing and assessing the intricate spatial dynamics within the German plaice-related fisheries SES. The BN integrates ecological, economic, and socio-cultural factors to generate high-resolution maps of profitability and adaptive capacity potential (ACP) as prospective management targets. Our analysis of future scenarios, delineating changes in spatial constraints, economics, and socio-cultural aspects, identifies factors that will exert significant influence on this fisheries SES in the near future. These include the loss of fishing grounds due to the installation of offshore wind farms and marine protected areas, as well as reduced plaice landings due to climate change. The identified ACP hotspots hold the potential to guide the development of localized management strategies and sustainable planning efforts by highlighting the consequences of management decisions. Our findings emphasize the need to consider detailed spatial dynamics of fisheries SES within marine spatial planning (MSP) and illustrate how this information may assist decision-makers and practitioners in area prioritization. We, therefore, propose adopting the concept of fisheries SES within broader integrated management approaches to foster sustainable development of inherently dynamic SES in a rapidly evolving marine environment.

Identifying resource-conscious and low-carbon agricultural development pathways through land use modelling.

Increasing agricultural production with current resources and technology may lead to increased GHG emissions. Additionally, large population countries like India face substantial challenges in terms of food demand, agro-ecological heterogeneity, carbon footprint and depleting natural resources, thus increasing the decision complexities for policymakers and planners. We aim to examine the potential of producing more food from available agricultural land with low-carbon (reduced GHG emissions) and resource-conscious (optimal resource use) options. The current study develops multiple calorie production and emission-centric land use using a land use optimization model wherein the calorie production and emission objective, resource and emissions constraints, and food production targets interact across multiple spatial levels. The capabilities of the developed model are demonstrated with a case study in India targeting ten crops (grown over two seasons) covering three food groups (cereals, legumes, and oilseeds). Three hypothetical scenarios for each objective of maximizing calories production (Calories-nation, Calories-group, Calories-crop) and minimizing GHG emissions (Emissions-nation, Emissions-group, Emissions-crop) are developed concerning targets of national crop production (Calories-nation, Emissions-nation), state food groups production (Calories-group, Emissions-group), and state crop production(Calories-crop, Emissions-crop), with different spatial levels of constraints. A maximum growth of 11% in calorie production is observed in Calories-nation while mitigating 2.5% emissions. Besides, the highest emission reduction of around 30% is observed in Emissions-group but with no change in calorie production. Emission scenarios can spare up to 14.8% land and 18.2% water, while calorie production-maximization scenarios can spare a maximum of 4.7% land and 6.5% water. The optimization-based methodology identifies the regions of altered land use by proposing appropriate crop substitution strategies, such as increasing oilseeds in Rajasthan and soybean in east Maharashtra. Many states show conservative production growth and emission reduction with state-level crop production targets (Calories-crop), suggesting crop redistribution within the state alone will not be sufficient unless improved technologies are introduced. The maximum growth and mitigation potential estimated in this study may be affected by climate shocks; therefore, introducing the improved technologies needs to be coupled with a crop redistribution mechanism to design climate-resilient and futuristic land use systems. The proposed land use model can be modified to incorporate climate change effects through consideration of scenarios of changed crop yields or through direct/indirect coupling with dynamic crop simulation models.

A connectivity portfolio effect stabilizes marine reserve performance.

Well-managed and enforced no-take marine reserves generate important larval subsidies to neighboring habitats and thereby contribute to the long-term sustainability of fisheries. However, larval dispersal patterns are variable, which leads to temporal fluctuations in the contribution of a single reserve to the replenishment of local populations. Identifying management strategies that mitigate the uncertainty in larval supply will help ensure the stability of recruitment dynamics and minimize the volatility in fishery catches. Here, we use genetic parentage analysis to show extreme variability in both the dispersal patterns and recruitment contribution of four individual marine reserves across six discrete recruitment cohorts for coral grouper (Plectropomus maculatus) on the Great Barrier Reef. Together, however, the asynchronous contributions from multiple reserves create temporal stability in recruitment via a connectivity portfolio effect. This dampening effect reduces the variability in larval supply from individual reserves by a factor of 1.8, which effectively halves the uncertainty in the recruitment contribution of individual reserves. Thus, not only does the network of four marine reserves generate valuable larval subsidies to neighboring habitats, the aggregate effect of individual reserves mitigates temporal fluctuations in dispersal patterns and the replenishment of local populations. Our results indicate that small networks of marine reserves yield previously unrecognized stabilizing benefits that ensure a consistent larval supply to replenish exploited fish stocks.

Marine spatial planning to solve increasing conflicts at sea: A framework for prioritizing offshore windfarms and marine protected areas.

Direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems are expected to lower the provided ecosystem services (ES) in the near future. To limit these impacts, protected areas will be implemented as part of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Simultaneously, as an answer to climate change, renewable energies are being rapidly developed on a worldwide scale, leading to a significant increase in space use in the coming decades. Sharing space is an increasingly complex task, especially because of the high rate of emergence of such competitors for space. In fisheries-dominated socio-ecosystems, acceptability of offshore windfarms (OWFs) and marine protected areas (MPAs) is usually very low, partly due to an underrepresentation of fisheries in spatial plans and poor attention to equity in the spatial distribution of restrictive areas. Here we developed a framework with a marine spatial planning case study in the Bay of Biscay represented by the socio-ecosystem of the Grande Vasière, a mid-shelf mud belt spanning over 21,000 km2. We collected biological, environmental, and anthropogenic data to model the distribution of 62 bentho-demersal species, 7 regulating ES layers related to nutrient cycling, life cycle maintenance and food web functioning, as well as provisioning ES of 18 commercial species and 82 fisheries subdivisions. We used these spatial layers and a prioritization algorithm to explore siting scenarios of OWFs and two types of MPAs (benthic and total protection), aimed at conserving species, regulating and provisioning ES, while also ensuring that fisheries are equitably impacted. We demonstrate that equitable scenarios are not necessarily costlier and provide alternative spatial prioritizations. We emphasize the importance of exploring multiple targets with a Shiny app to visualize results and stimulate dialogue among stakeholders and policymakers. Overall, we show how our flexible, inclusive framework with particular attention to equity could be an ideal discussion tool to improve management practices.

Spatially explicit modeling of disease surveillance in mixed oak-hardwood forests based on machine-learning algorithms.

Incidences of disease, dieback, decline or mortality, some of which induced or enhanced by climate change, threaten the sustainability of forest stands in many ecosystems. Spatially explicit prediction of disease onset remains challenging, however, due to the involvement of several causative agents. In this paper, we developed a generic framework based on machine-learning algorithms and spatial analyses for landscape-level prediction of oak disease outbreaks caused by the charcoal fungus Biscogniauxia mediterranea in a mixed-oak forest of Mediterranean climate. For prediction, we used a set of fifteen causative factors as a cross-function of soil, site and stand-related predictors. A total of 80 sample plots, including 1134 affected trees, were surveyed and used for the modeling process at the 5600-ha landscape level of the southern Zagros, Iran, where the disease occurs in roughly 25% of forest lands. Ten machine learning algorithms were explored and the performance of each algorithm to predict oak disease outbreak was evaluated. The modeling framework used maximum entropy to remove the least influential variables and build the status-quo management scenario to which the results of the prediction models were compared. Results showed that the random forests algorithm (AUC = 0.96: Precision = 0.71: Accuracy = 0.90: F-Measure = 0.70) achieved significantly better results than the status-quo management (Precision = 0.13: Accuracy = 0.67: F-Measure = 0.12) and any other algorithm. Soil chemical properties (NPK, organic carbon and EC) and landform predictors (slope, distance to roads, and TWI) were major forecasters of oak disease outbreak identified by the random forest algorithm. Geostatistical analysis enabled the creation of a map that identified sites at higher risk of infestation, allowing epidemiologists and forest managers to find sites likely to be infested. Consequently, financial resources can be allocated and management practices such as sanitation felling treatments applied across large forest landscapes to minimize the risk of spread and severity to uninfested high-value trees on nearby or adjacent land zones that are in the early stage of epidemics.

The challenge of setting restoration targets for macroalgal forests under climate changes.

The process of site selection and spatial planning has received scarce attention in the scientific literature dealing with marine restoration, suggesting the need to better address how spatial planning tools could guide restoration interventions. In this study, for the first time, the consequences of adopting different restoration targets and criteria on spatial restoration prioritization have been assessed at a regional scale, including the consideration of climate changes. We applied the decision-support tool Marxan, widely used in systematic conservation planning on Mediterranean macroalgal forests. The loss of this habitat has been largely documented, with limited evidences of natural recovery. Spatial priorities were identified under six planning scenarios, considering three main restoration targets to reflect the objectives of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. Results show that the number of suitable sites for restoration is very limited at basin scale, and targets are only achieved when the recovery of 10% of regressing and extinct macroalgal forests is planned. Increasing targets translates into including unsuitable areas for restoration in Marxan solutions, amplifying the risk of ineffective interventions. Our analysis supports macroalgal forests restoration and provides guiding principles and criteria to strengthen the effectiveness of restoration actions across habitats. The constraints in finding suitable areas for restoration are discussed, and recommendations to guide planning to support future restoration interventions are also included.

Cultivated land multifunctionality in undeveloped peri-urban agriculture areas in China: Implications for sustainable land management.

The spatial planning and sustainable management of peri-urban cultivated land are key aspects of national development in many countries because of the continuing expansion of urban areas and deterioration of agro-ecosystem services. Detailed geo-informational investigation of cultivated land multifunctionality and the spatial interactions and dependencies of these multiple functions is required to inform the currently weak theoretical framework of multifunctionality at the peri-urban scale. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to construct a comprehensive methodology to identify and evaluate cultivated land multifunctionality in a spatial context. Geochemical data were used to measure cultivated land multifunctionality. We evaluated two main functions-the productive function and the ecological function-of an undeveloped peri-urban agriculture (PUA) area in the northern fringe of Changchun City in the black-soil region of northeastern China. For the ecological utilization of PUA areas, tradeoff and synergy analyses of cultivated land multifunctionality and coordinated development under complex land-use patterns were measured using a bivariate local Moran's I method. Results reveal considerable spatial heterogeneity in the two functions, with hotspots or coldspots being found in the PUA area. The productive function presents a less pronounced decreasing trend along the rural-to-urban gradient compared with the ecological function. Tradeoffs and synergies between the productive function and the ecological function occur mainly in the northern (more rural) part of the PUA area, where the spatial spillover effect of urbanization is relatively low. Cultivated land functions are strongly affected by urbanization-induced land-use types, and the coordinated areas of the productive function are generally consistent with those of the ecological function. According to these results, we delineate nine zones of multifunctionality in the studied PUA area. Given the importance of harmonizing cultivated land multifunctionality to manage limited land resources in a sustainable way, application of the GIS- and geochemistry-based multifunctionality evaluation scheme proposed in this study should be used to guide peri-urban spatial planning and land-use management and inform the policy arena concerning the transition of land use in urban peripheries.

Behavioral responses to offshore windfarms during migration of a declining shorebird species revealed by GPS-telemetry.

EU member countries and the UK are currently installing numerous offshore windfarms (OWFs) in the Baltic and North Seas to achieve decarbonization of their energy systems. OWFs may have adverse effects on birds; however, estimates of collision risks and barrier effects for migratory species are notably lacking, but are essential to inform marine spatial planning. We therefore compiled an international dataset consisting of 259 migration tracks for 143 Global Positioning System-tagged Eurasian curlews (Numenius arquata arquata) from seven European countries recorded over 6 years, to assess individual response behaviors when approaching OWFs in the North and Baltic Seas at two different spatial scales (i.e. up to 3.5 km and up to 30 km distance). Generalized additive mixed models revealed a significant small-scale increase in flight altitudes, which was strongest at 0-500 m from the OWF and which was more pronounced during autumn than during spring, due to higher proportions of time spent migrating at rotor level. Furthermore, four different small-scale integrated step selection models consistently detected horizontal avoidance responses in about 70% of approaching curlews, which was strongest at approximately 450 m from the OWFs. No distinct, large-scale avoidance effects were observed on the horizontal plane, although they could possibly have been confounded by changes in flight altitudes close to land. Overall, 28.8% of the flight tracks crossed OWFs at least once during migration. Flight altitudes within the OWFs overlapped with the rotor level to a high degree in autumn (50%) but to a significantly lesser extent in spring (18.5%). Approximately 15.8% and 5.8% of the entire curlew population were estimated to be at increased risk during autumn and spring migration, respectively. Our data clearly show strong small-scale avoidance responses, which are likely to reduce collision risk, but simultaneously highlight the substantial barrier effect of OWFs for migrating species. Although alterations in flight paths of curlews due to OWFs seem to be moderate with respect to the overall migration route, there is an urgent need to quantify the respective energetic costs, given the massive ongoing construction of OWFs in both sea areas.