Temporal trends in population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia: a time-series study of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2004-2019).

BACKGROUND: Interest in modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for dementia is high, given the personal, social, and economic impact of the disorder, especially in ageing societies such as the United Kingdom. Exploring the population attributable fraction (PAF) of dementia attributable to MRFs and how this may have changed over time remains unclear. Unravelling the temporal dynamics of MRFs is crucial for informing the development of evidence-based and effective public health policies. This investigation examined the temporal trajectories of MRFs for dementia in England. METHODS: We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a panel study over eight waves collected between 2004 and 2019 (76,904 interviews in total). We calculated the PAFs for twelve MRFs (including six early- to mid-life factors and six late-life factors), as recommended by the Lancet Commission, and the individual weighted PAFs (IW-PAFs) for each risk factor. Temporal trends were analysed to understand the changes in the overall PAF and IW-PAF over the study period. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex and socioeconomic status (SES). RESULTS: The overall PAF for dementia MRFs changed from 46.73% in 2004/2005 to 36.79% in 2018/2019, though this trend was not statistically significant. During 2004-2019, hypertension, with an average IW-PAF of 8.21%, was the primary modifiable determinant of dementia, followed by obesity (6.16%), social isolation (5.61%), hearing loss (4.81%), depression (4.72%), low education (4.63%), physical inactivity (3.26%), diabetes mellitus (2.49%), smoking (2.0%), excessive alcohol consumption (1.16%), air pollution (0.42%), and traumatic brain injury (TBI) (0.26%). During 2004-2019, only IW-PAFs of low education, social isolation, and smoking showed significant decreasing trends, while IW-PAFs of other factors either did not change significantly or increased (including TBI, diabetes mellitus, and air pollution). Upon sex-specific disaggregation, a higher overall PAF for MRFs was found among women, predominantly associated with later-life risk factors, most notably social isolation, depression, and physical inactivity. Additionally, hearing loss, classified as an early- to mid-life factor, played a supplementary role in the identified sex disparity. A comparable discrepancy was evident upon PAF evaluation by SES, with lower income groups experiencing a higher dementia risk, largely tied to later-life factors such as social isolation, physical inactivity, depression, and smoking. Early- to mid-life factors, in particular, low education and obesity, were also observed to contribute to the SES-associated divergence in dementia risk. Temporal PAF and IW-PAF trends, stratified by sex and SES, revealed that MRF PAF gaps across sex or SES categories have persisted or increased. CONCLUSIONS: In England, there was little change over time in the proportion of dementia attributable to known modifiable risk factors. The observed trends underscore the continuing relevance of these risk factors and the need for targeted public health strategies to address them.

Sex-Specific Differences in the Progression of Huntington's Disease Symptoms - A National Study in China.

INTRODUCTION: Huntington's disease (HD) is a rare, inherited neurodegenerative disorder. Despite extensive research on symptom progression and sex differences in Western populations, little is known about these aspects within the Chinese context. The objective of this study was to investigate the temporal trends of symptoms in individuals with HD in China. METHODS: A nationwide cross-sectional study was conducted in Chinese individuals diagnosed with HD. Symptom progression over time, encompassing physical, psychiatric, and cognitive symptoms, was self-reported. We calculated the proportions of individuals who currently had each symptom by disease duration, and tested corresponding temporal trends by linear regression analyses. RESULTS: A total of 269 individuals diagnosed with HD were included. Specific symptoms were found to progress more significantly in males compared to females over time, including psychotic symptoms (p = 0.007), urinary incontinence (p = 0.013), reduced concentration (p = 0.005), font alteration (p = 0.029), atypical facial expression (p = 0.037), and suicidal ideation (p = 0.047). In terms of cognitive and psychiatric symptoms, no significant temporal trends were identified in females, while males demonstrated significant increasing trends, with reduced concentration (p = 0.005) and psychotic symptoms (p = 0.007) standing out. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasizes the existence of sex-specific symptom progression in HD within the Chinese population, underscoring the importance of considering sex in clinical practice. Further research should investigate the mechanisms behind these differences and explore tailored treatment options.

Prevalence and Temporal Trends of Epilepsy in Children: A Retrospective Birth Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Epilepsy is one of the most common chronic neurologic diseases in children; however, few recent studies examine the prevalence of epilepsy and its evolution over time according to birth or maternal characteristics. The aim of the study was to examine the prevalence of epilepsy in children born between 2002 and 2020 and the temporal trends by year of birth, in Ontario, Canada, overall, and according to maternal and birth characteristics. METHODS: We included all in-hospital deliveries between 2002 and 2020 (N = 2,343,482) in Ontario, Canada, using linked administrative health dataset. We estimated the overall prevalence of epilepsy diagnosed before the age of 18 years, by birth and maternal characteristics. For temporal trend analyses, we restricted our population to children born up to 2012 (N = 1,405,271) and examined the prevalence of epilepsy diagnosed by age 8 by their year of birth, using Poisson regression. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of epilepsy in our cohort was 8.1 per 1,000 live births (95% CI: 8.0-8.2). Prevalence was higher for boys, for children born preterm, with congenital malformations, from multiple pregnancies, from mothers born in Canada, and for children living in deprived areas. Epilepsy prevalence diagnosed by age 8 increased slightly between 2002 and 2012 cohorts (6.9 [95% CI: 6.2-7.6] to 7.3 [95% CI: 6.6-8.1] per 1,000 live births, respectively). Differences by gestational age as gradient and socioeconomic characteristics were persistent and stable over time, while those by pregnancy plurality and sex decreased. SIGNIFICANCE: In a large population-based birth cohort in Canada, we observed a slight increase in epilepsy prevalence over time among children born in 2002 and those born in 2012 and persistent disparities by gestational age, socioeconomic position, and maternal immigration status. This study highlights the need for continued surveillance of rates to see if this increasing trend is persistent, to understand the potential causes behind it, and to understand the persistence of these disparities.

Global Trends and Inequalities of Liver Complications Related to Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease: An Analysis From 1990 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease is a significant driver of the increasing global burden of chronic liver disease. This study aimed to describe the temporal trends and inequalities of liver complications related to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (LC-MASLD) by geographical region, age and sex during 1990-2021. METHODS: Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021 data were analysed to assess LC-MASLD incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Temporal trends during 1990-2021 were measured by 'estimated annual percentage change' (EAPC). Inequalities of LC-MASLD burden across countries were evaluated by the slope index of inequality (SII) and the relative concentration index (RCI). RESULTS: During 1990-2021, LC-MASLD rose annually by 0.73% in incidence and prevalence, 0.19% in mortality and 0.16% in DALYs. In 2021, the Middle East and North Africa had the highest incidence and prevalence and Andean and Central Latin America had the highest mortality and DALY rates. While LC-MASLD incidence was earliest in the 15-19 age group, both prevalence and DALY rates peaked at 75-79 years for both sexes. Inequalities in mortality and DALYs by countries' socioeconomic development index increased during 1990-2021, demonstrated by a decline in SII from -0.09 to -0.56 per 100 000 for mortality and from 1.41 to -7.74 per 100 000 for DALYs. RCI demonstrated similar findings. CONCLUSION: The LC-MASLD burden is increasing globally, especially in economically disadvantaged countries, with widening disease inequalities during 1990-2021. Effective prevention and subregional interventions are crucial, with a specific focus on resource optimisation for disadvantaged populations.

Global evolving patterns and cross-country inequalities of inflammatory bowel disease burden from 1990 to 2019: a worldwide report.

AIMS: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a global disease. We aim to summarize the latest epidemiological patterns of IBD at the national, regional and global levels to give well-deserved attention and outline facilitating measures to reduce the disease burden. METHODS: We collected the incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of IBD in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We further calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to qualify the temporal trends of IBD burden by sex, age and region over the past 30 years. RESULTS: Globally, a total of 404.55 thousand incident cases, 4898.56 thousand prevalent cases, 41.00 thousand deaths and 1622.50 thousand DALYs of IBD were estimated in 2019. The age-standardized DALYs decreased from 27.2 in 1990 to 20.15 per 100,000 people in 2019, with an EAPC of -1.04. The high socio-demographic index regions presented pronounced age-standardized rates (ASRs) consistently over the last 30 years. The high-income North America had the highest ASRs in 2019, followed by Western Europe and Australasia. No gender difference was observed after being stratified by sex. CONCLUSIONS: The accumulated IBD patients are expected to increase in the future due to the increased rate of IBD in developing countries, and social aging in developed countries. Understanding the changes in epidemiological patterns helps to provide evidence to mitigate the rising burden of IBD.

Tracking the Helicobacter pylori Epidemic in Adults and Children in China.

BACKGROUND: The Helicobacter pylori epidemic in China accounts for up to a third of gastric cancers worldwide. We aim to monitor the temporal and spatial dynamics of H. pylori infection in both adults and children across China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed a surveillance system consisting of a data collection component that harnessed survey reports in natural populations and an analysis component that accounted for the differences in survey time and location, population age structure, and H. pylori detection method. System outputs were estimates of the prevalence of H. pylori in adults and children (aged ≤ 14 years) presented at three hierarchical levels (regional, provincial, and prefectural). RESULTS: The overall prevalence of H. pylori infection declined sharply in adults (63.3%, 52.5%, 43.4%, and 38.7%) and less sharply in children (23.1%, 26.1%, 16.0%, and 15.7%) in 1983-1999, 2000-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2019, respectively. The changes were asynchronous across regions, with the most marked declines in the Northwest, the Hong Kong-Macao-Taiwan region, and the East. We estimated that 457.6 million adults and 44.5 million children have been infected with H. pylori, with cross-province disparities in prevalence ranging from 24.3% to 69.3% among adults and 2.9% to 46.3% among children. In general, the risk level of gastric cancer increased as the prevalence of H. pylori increased. The correlation was statistically significant for both adult men (Spearman coefficient of correlation: 0.393, p = 0.0146) and women (0.470, p = 0.0029). CONCLUSIONS: The tracking system would be important for the continuous and stratified tracking of the Helicobacter pylori epidemic across China and can be used to furnish an evidence base for the formulation of tailored prevention strategies.

Aggravating Pollution of Emerging Aryl Organophosphate Esters in Urban Estuarine Sediments of South China.

Emerging aryl organophosphate esters (aryl-OPEs) have been employed as substitutes for organohalogen flame retardants in recent years; however, their environmental occurrence and associated impacts in urban estuarine sediments have not been adequately investigated, impeding regulatory decision-making. Herein, field-based investigations and modeling based on surface sediment and sediment core analysis were employed to uncover the historical pollution and current environmental impacts of aryl-OPEs in the Pearl River Estuary, South China. Our results revealed a substantial increase in aryl-OPE emission, particularly emerging aryl-OPEs, through sediment transport to the estuary since the 2000s. The emerging aryl-OPEs comprised 83% of the total annual input in the past decade, with an average annual input of 155,000 g. Additionally, the emerging-to-traditional aryl-OPE concentration ratios increased with decreasing distance from the shore, peaking in the highly urbanized riverine outlets. These findings indicate that inventories of emerging aryl-OPEs are likely increasing in estuarine sediments and their emissions are surpassing those of traditional aryl-OPEs. Our risk-based priority screening approach indicates that some emerging aryl-OPEs, particularly bisphenol A bis(diphenyl phosphate), can pose a higher environmental risk than traditional aryl-OPEs in estuarine sediments. Overall, our study highlights the importance of recognizing the environmental impacts of emerging aryl-OPEs.

Temporal trend analysis of acute hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019.

China faces challenges in meeting the World Health Organization (WHO)'s target of reducing hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 95% using 2015 as the baseline. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the temporal trends in the crude incidence rates (CIRs) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of acute HBV (AHBV) infections in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on AHBV infection risk, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the annual number and ASIRs of AHBV infections in China through 2030. The joinpoint regression model revealed that CIRs and ASIRs decreased from 1990 to 2019, with a faster decline occurring among males and females younger than 20 years. According to the age-period-cohort model, age effects showed a steep increase followed by a gradual decline, whereas period effects showed a linear decline, and cohort effects showed a gradual rise followed by a rapid decline. The number of cases of AHBV infections in China was predicted to decline until 2030, but it is unlikely to meet the WHO's target. These findings provide scientific support and guidance for hepatitis B prevention and control.

Incidence distributions, risk factors and trends of vaginal cancer: A global population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the incidence, risk factors and trends for vaginal cancer. DESIGN: Retrospective observational design. SETTING: Data were collected from multiple sources, including the Global Cancer Observatory, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus, Global Burden of Disease, World Bank and the United Nations. POPULATION: Individuals diagnosed with vaginal cancer. METHODS: The study collected data on vaginal cancer from the specified sources. The age-standardised rate (ASR) of vaginal cancer was calculated for different regions and age groups. Multivariable and univariable linear regression analyses were performed to examine the associations between risk factors and the incidence of vaginal cancer. Trend analysis was conducted using joinpoint regression analysis, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trend. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures of the study were the incidence of vaginal cancer, risk factors associated with the disease and the trend of its incidence over time. RESULTS: There were 17 908 newly reported cases of vaginal cancer (ASR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.30-0.44) in 2020, with the highest ASRs reported in South-Central Asia and Southern Africa. Risk factors associated with a higher incidence of vaginal cancer included a higher prevalence of unsafe sex and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. The temporal trend showed an overall rising incidence globally, with Iceland (AAPC = 29.56, 95% CI 12.12-49.71), Chile (AAPC = 22.83, 95% CI 13.20-33.27), Bahrain (AAPC = 22.05, 95% CI 10.83-34.40) and the UK (AAPC = 1.40, 95% CI 0.41-2.39) demonstrating the most significant rising trends. CONCLUSIONS: The significant regional disparities and risk factors associated with vaginal cancer underscore the necessity for targeted interventions and education, particularly in regions with a lower human development index (HDI) and a higher prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The increasing incidence trend emphasises the need for enhanced HPV vaccination rates to prevent the development of vaginal cancer.

The global burden, trends and cross-country inequalities of female breast and gynaecologic cancers: A population based study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the global burden, trends and cross-country inequalities of female breast and gynaecologic cancers (FeBGCs). DESIGN: Population-Based Study. SETTING: Data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. POPULATION: Individuals diagnosed with FeBGCs. METHODS: Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), age-standardised Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rates (ASDRs) and their 95% uncertainty interval (UI) described the burden. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) and their confidence interval (CI) of age-standardised rates (ASRs) illustrated trends. Social inequalities were quantified using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Concentration Index. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were the burden of FeBGCs and the trends in its inequalities over time. RESULTS: In 2019, the ASDRs per 100 000 females were as follows: breast cancer: 473.83 (95% UI: 437.30-510.51), cervical cancer: 210.64 (95% UI: 177.67-234.85), ovarian cancer: 124.68 (95% UI: 109.13-138.67) and uterine cancer: 210.64 (95% UI: 177.67-234.85). The trends per year from 1990 to 2019 were expressed as EAPCs of ASDRs and these: for Breast cancer: -0.51 (95% CI: -0.57 to -0.45); Cervical cancer: -0.95 (95% CI: -0.99 to -0.89); Ovarian cancer: -0.08 (95% CI: -0.12 to -0.04); and Uterine cancer: -0.84 (95% CI: -0.93 to -0.75). In the Social Inequalities Analysis (1990-2019) the SII changed from 689.26 to 607.08 for Breast, from -226.66 to -239.92 for cervical, from 222.45 to 228.83 for ovarian and from 74.61 to 103.58 for uterine cancer. The concentration index values ranged from 0.2 to 0.4. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of FeBGCs worldwide showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Countries or regions with higher Socio-demographic Index (SDI) bear a higher DALYs burden of breast, ovarian and uterine cancers, while those with lower SDI bear a heavier burden of cervical cancer. These inequalities increased over time.

A global analysis of the burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to diet low in fiber between 1990 and 2019.

AIM: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) represents a major cardiovascular condition heavily influenced by dietary factors. This study endeavors to assess the global, regional, and temporal impact of low-fiber diets on the burden of IHD. METHOD: Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, we analyzed the worldwide burden of IHD resulting from diet low in fiber using indices including death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). This burden was further segmented based on variables including regions and countries. To track the evolution from 1990 to 2019, we utilized the Joinpoint regression model to estimate the temporal trend of IHD burden stemming from low-fiber diets. RESULTS: In 2019, a total of 348.85 thousand (95%UI: 147.57, 568.31) deaths and 7942.96 thousand (95%UI: 3373.58,12978.29) DALY (95% UI: 707.88, 1818) of IHD were attributed to diet low in fiber globally. These figures correspond to 3.82% of all IHD deaths and 4.36% of total IHD DALYs. The age-standardized death and DALY rates per 100,000 individuals were 4.48 (95% UI: 1.90,7.27) and 97.4(95%UI: 41.44, 158.88) respectively. However, significant regional disparities emerged in these age-standardized rates, with South Asia and Central Asia experiencing the highest rates. Between 1990 and 2019, we observed that most regions displayed a downward trend of the age-standardized DALY and death rate of IHD resulting from low-fiber diets, except for Central Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSION: Our analysis underscores the substantial toll of IHD associated with low-fiber diets, particularly considering the significant regional variations. Therefore, it is imperative to sustain efforts to implement effective measures aimed at enhancing fiber intake worldwide, particularly in countries with lower socio-demographic indices.

Trends in prevalence of obesity and its association with hypertension across socioeconomic gradients in rural Yunnan Province, China.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to uncover the changing prevalence of obesity and its association with hypertension across socioeconomic gradients in rural southwest China. METHODS: Data were collected from two cross-sectional health interviews and surveys from 2011 to 2021 among individuals aged ≥ 35 years in rural China. Each participant's height, weight, waist circumference, and blood pressure were measured. The overall prevalence of obesity, central obesity, and hypertension was directly standardized by age based on the total population of the two surveys. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the association between obesity and prevalence of hypertension and an individual socioeconomic position (SEP) index was constructed using principal component analysis. RESULTS: From 2011 to 2021, the prevalence of obesity, central obesity, and hypertension increased substantially, from 5.9%, 50.2%, and 26.1-12.1%, 58.0%, and 40.4% (P < 0.01), respectively. These increasing rates existed in all subcategories, including sex, age, ethnicity, education, annual household income, access to medical services, and SEP (P < 0.05). In both 2011 and 2021, lower education level and poor access to medical services correlated with higher prevalence of central obesity, while higher SEP correlated with higher prevalence of obesity and central obesity (P < 0.01). Prevalence of obesity was higher in the Han ethnicity participants and individuals with poor access to medical services than in their counterparts (P < 0.01). Whereas the prevalence of central obesity was lower in Han participants than in ethnic minority participants in 2011 (P < 0.01), this trend reversed in 2021 (P < 0.01). A positive relationship between annual household income and prevalence of obesity and central obesity was only found in 2021 (P < 0.01). Obese and centrally obese participants were more likely to be hypertensive in both survey years (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Future interventions to prevent and manage obesity in rural China should give increased attention to high income, less educated, poor access to medical services, and high SEP individuals. The implementation of these obesity interventions would also help reduce the prevalence of hypertension.

Groundwater nitrate contamination in China: Spatial distribution, temporal trend, and driver analysis.

China's groundwater is facing a significant threat from nitrate pollution. Here we analyzed 2348 regional surveys of groundwater nitrate levels in China from 1990 to 2020, examining distribution, trends, and drivers. This study uncovers a concerning rise in nitrate pollution, with estimated median nitrate levels climbing from 3.84 mg/L in 1990 to 6.94 mg/L in 2020. A stark contrast is observed between regions: the northern areas have a median nitrate concentration of 8.54 mg/L, significantly higher than the southern regions, where the median is just 7.15 mg/L. From 1990 to 2020, agricultural activity consistently emerges as the dominant driver of changes in groundwater nitrate concentrations, while groundwater exploitation, domestic pollution, and industrial production also contribute to varying degrees. This analysis highlights the urgency for region-specific policies and interventions to address the escalating nitrate pollution in China's groundwater.

Uncovering sociodemographic disparities in temporal trends of osteoarthritis incidence and age-at-diagnosis, 2006-2019.

AIM: To describe sociodemographic disparities in temporal trends of incidence and age distributions of first registered osteoarthritis (OA) diagnosis in southern Sweden. METHODS: We identified all Skåne residents aged 35+ who had lived in the region at any point during the period 2006-2019 with no previous OA diagnosis (ICD-10 codes M15-M19) for 8 years prior to inclusion in the study (n = 849,061). We calculated person-years from inclusion until OA diagnosis, death, emigration, or 31 December 2019, whichever occurred first. Combining sex (female, male), education (low, medium, high) and nativity (Swedish, immigrant), we created a variable with 12 strata. Average annual percent changes in age-standardized incidence rates were estimated using joinpoint regression. Changes in the median age-at-diagnosis (year of diagnosis minus birth year), weighted to the mid-2005 Swedish population, were explored. RESULTS: Cumulative age-standardized incidence rates ranged from 116 (95% CI: 111, 121) per 10,000 person-years for immigrant males with low education to 205 (95% CI: 200, 210) for immigrant females with medium education. The estimated average annual percent changes (ranging from 3.4% to 6.1%) were generally similar, with slightly greater variations among immigrants than Swedes. The weighted median age-at-diagnosis was higher for Swedes and low educated people. Immigrant females with low education were the only stratum with a reduction (3 years) in the weighted median age-at-diagnosis over time. Sociodemographic patterns in knee OA incidence were different from patterns for hip OA. CONCLUSIONS: There were few sociodemographic disparities in temporal trends of OA incidence and age-at-diagnosis, suggesting persistent sociodemographic disparities in OA burden in southern Sweden.

Global forecasting of chronic kidney disease mortality rates and numbers with the generalized additive model.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important public health problem worldwide; therefore, forecasting CKD mortality rates and death numbers globally is vital for planning CKD prevention programs. This study aimed to characterize the temporal trends in CKD mortality at the international level from 1990 to 2019 and predict CKD mortality rates and numbers until 2030. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. A joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change in CKD mortality rates and numbers. Finally, we used a generalized additive model to predict CKD mortality through 2030. RESULTS: The number of CKD-related deaths worldwide increased from 591.80 thousand in 1990 to 1425.67 thousand in 2019. The CKD age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 15.95 per 100,000 people to 18.35 per 100,000 people during the same period. Between 2020 and 2030, the number of CKD deaths is forecasted to increase further to 1812.85 thousand by 2030. The CKD age-adjusted mortality rate is expected to decrease slightly to 17.76 per 100,000 people (95% credible interval (CrI): 13.84 to 21.68). Globally, it is predicted that in the next decade, the CKD mortality rate will decrease in men, women, all subgroups of disease etiology except glomerulonephritis, people younger than 40 years old, and all groupings of countries based on the sociodemographic index (SDI) except high-middle-SDI countries. CONCLUSIONS: The CKD mortality rate is predicted to decrease in the next decade. However, more attention should be given to people with glomerulonephritis, people over 40 years old, and people in high- to middle-income countries because the mortality rate due to CKD in these subgroups is expected to increase until 2030.

Notable dysthymia: evolving trends of major depressive disorders and dysthymia in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030.

BACKGROUND: Depressive disorders have been identified as a significant contributor to non-fatal health loss in China. Among the various subtypes of depressive disorders, dysthymia is gaining attention due to its similarity in clinical severity and disability to major depressive disorders (MDD). However, national epidemiological data on the burden of disease and risk factors of MDD and dysthymia in China are scarce. METHODS: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by MDD and dysthymia in China between 1990 and 2019. The temporal trends of the depressive disorder burden were evaluated using the average annual percentage change. The comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of DALYs attributed to risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the burden of depressive disorders. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the overall age-standardized estimates of dysthymia in China remained stable, while MDD showed a decreasing trend. Since 2006, the raw prevalence of dysthymia exceeded that of MDD for the first time, and increased alternately with MDD in recent years. Moreover, while the prevalence and burden of MDD decreased in younger age groups, it increased in the aged population. In contrast, the prevalence and burden of dysthymia remained stable across different ages. In females, 11.34% of the DALYs attributable to depressive disorders in 2019 in China were caused by intimate partner violence, which has increasingly become prominent among older women. From 2020 to 2030, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of dysthymia in China are projected to remain stable, while MDD is expected to continue declining. CONCLUSIONS: To reduce the burden of depressive disorders in China, more attention and targeted strategies are needed for dysthymia. It's also urgent to control potential risk factors like intimate partner violence and develop intervention strategies for older women. These efforts are crucial for improving mental health outcomes in China.

Temporal trends and risk factors of perioperative cardiac events in patients over 80 years old with coronary artery disease undergoing noncardiac surgery: a high-volume single-center experience, 2014-2022.

BACKGROUND: Temporal trends and risk factors of perioperative cardiac events (PCEs) in patients over 80 years old with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing noncardiac surgery are still unclear. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 1478 patients over 80 years old, with known CAD undergoing selective noncardiac surgery in a single center (2014-2022). Patients were divided into three equal time groups based on the discharge date (2014-2016, 2017-2019, and 2020-2022), with 367, 473, and 638 patients in Groups 1-3, respectively. Perioperative clinical variables were extracted from the electronic medical records database. The primary outcome was the occurrence of PCEs intraoperatively or during hospitalization postoperatively, defined as any of the following events: myocardial infarction, heart failure, nonfatal cardiac arrest, and death. RESULTS: PCEs occurred in 180 (12.2%) patients. Eight independent risk factors were associated with PCEs, including four clinical factors (body mass index < 22 kg/m2, history of myocardial infarction, history of heart failure, and general anesthesia) and four preoperative laboratory results (hemoglobin < 110 g/L, albumin < 40 g/L, creatinine > 120 µmol/L, and potassium <3.6 mmol/L). Significant rising trends were seen over the 9-year study period in the incidence of PCEs and independent risk factors including history of myocardial infarction, history of heart failure, general anesthesia, preoperative hemoglobin < 110 g/L, preoperative albumin < 40 g/L, and preoperative creatinine > 120 µmol/L (P for trend <0.05). CONCLUSION: The incidence and independent risk factors of PCEs in patients over 80 years old with CAD undergoing noncardiac surgery showed significant rising trends over the last 9-year period.

Nonlinear trends in abundance and diversity and complex responses to climate change in Arctic arthropods.

Time series data on arthropod populations are critical for understanding the magnitude, direction, and drivers of change. However, most arthropod monitoring programs are short-lived and restricted in taxonomic resolution. Monitoring data from the Arctic are especially underrepresented, yet critical to uncovering and understanding some of the earliest biological responses to rapid environmental change. Clear imprints of climate on the behavior and life history of some Arctic arthropods have been demonstrated, but a synthesis of population-level abundance changes across taxa is lacking. We utilized 24 y of abundance data from Zackenberg in High-Arctic Greenland to assess trends in abundance and diversity and identify potential climatic drivers of abundance changes. Unlike findings from temperate systems, we found a nonlinear pattern, with total arthropod abundance gradually declining during 1996 to 2014, followed by a sharp increase. Family-level diversity showed the opposite pattern, suggesting increasing dominance of a small number of taxa. Total abundance masked more complicated trajectories of family-level abundance, which also frequently varied among habitats. Contrary to expectation in this extreme polar environment, winter and fall conditions and positive density-dependent feedbacks were more common determinants of arthropod dynamics than summer temperature. Together, these data highlight the complexity of characterizing climate change responses even in relatively simple Arctic food webs. Our results underscore the need for data reporting beyond overall trends in biomass or abundance and for including basic research on life history and ecology to achieve a more nuanced understanding of the sensitivity of Arctic and other arthropods to global changes.

Disease burden, risk factors, and temporal trends of eye cancer: A global analysis of cancer registries.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to investigate the global disease burden, risk factors, and temporal trends of eye cancer by sex and age group. METHODS: Databases including Cancer Incidence in Five Continents volumes I-XI, the Nordic Cancer Registries, the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and the WHO IARC mortality database were accessed to extract incidence and mortality data. Joinpoint regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the Average Annual Percentage Change of the incidence and mortality. RESULTS: The age-standardised rates of eye cancer incidence and mortality were 0.49 and 0.08 globally in 2020. Higher incidence rates were observed in Sub-Saharan Africa (ASR = 4.06), Western Europe (ASR = 0.89), and Northern Europe (ASR = 0.84), but higher mortality was observed only in Sub-Saharan Africa (ASR = 1.59). Lower HDI, higher prevalence of UV exposure and lower prevalence of several lifestyle habits and metabolic syndromes were associated with higher incidence and mortality. There was an overall stable incidence trend and a decreasing mortality trend. Notably, all countries reporting decreasing trend in mortality were in the Asian or European region. CONCLUSIONS: Although higher incidence was observed in both African and European regions, only the Sub-Saharan Africa region reported high mortality, indicating inequity in the access of healthcare and treatment resource. Higher prevalence of UV exposure was associated with both higher incidence and mortality. Education should be provided to increase the awareness of eye protection. An overall declining mortality trend was found, but it was limited to only Asian and European countries.

Increasing contamination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Chinese soils.

China is facing a serious threat PAHs contaminated soil. To better understand the current state of soil PAH pollution in China and contribute to the development of feasible prevention and control measures and policies in the future. This study examines the spatiotemporal distributions of soil Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) pollution in China since 2000, and investigates the key factors influencing changes in levels of soil PAHs. The results of the survey on soil PAHs concentration levels in 716 areas were analyzed by visualization of ArcGIS pro data, correlation analysis and linear regression analysis, it was found that the increase in soil PAH pollution in China is concerning. The analysis indicates significant regional disparities, with pollution levels in the north being higher than in the south. Over the 20-year period, the median level of PAHs in soil increased by 476.8 µg/kg. Construction land areas that heavily rely on fossil fuels and industrial activities exhibit significantly higher concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) compared to other land use types. The study identifies key socio-economic factors linked to rising PAH levels, including energy consumption (notably coal and oil), industrial and domestic waste production. Coal consumption is highlighted as the leading factor in PAH concentration changes in 18 provinces, followed by industrial waste in 6 provinces. Future projections up to 2030 suggest continued influence of these factors on soil PAH levels. The research emphasizes the urgent necessity for comprehensive soil management policies to address the growing PAH pollution, offering insights into its dynamics and contributing factors in China.