Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.

Shifts in mycorrhizal types of fungi and plants in response to fertilisation, warming and herbivory in a tundra grassland.

Climate warming is severely affecting high-latitude regions. In the Arctic tundra, it may lead to enhanced soil nutrient availability and interact with simultaneous changes in grazing pressure. It is presently unknown how these concurrently occurring global change drivers affect the root-associated fungal communities, particularly mycorrhizal fungi, and whether changes coincide with shifts in plant mycorrhizal types. We investigated changes in root-associated fungal communities and mycorrhizal types of the plant community in a 10-yr factorial experiment with warming, fertilisation and grazing exclusion in a Finnish tundra grassland. The strongest determinant of the root-associated fungal community was fertilisation, which consistently increased potential plant pathogen abundance and had contrasting effects on the different mycorrhizal fungal types, contingent on other treatments. Plant mycorrhizal types went through pronounced shifts, with warming favouring ecto- and ericoid mycorrhiza but not under fertilisation and grazing exclusion. Combination of all treatments resulted in dominance by arbuscular mycorrhizal plants. However, shifts in plant mycorrhizal types vs fungi were mostly but not always aligned in their magnitude and direction. Our results show that our ability to predict shifts in symbiotic and antagonistic fungal communities depend on simultaneous consideration of multiple global change factors that jointly alter plant and fungal communities.

Root-associated fungi and acquisitive root traits facilitate permafrost nitrogen uptake from long-term experimentally warmed tundra.

Root-associated fungi (RAF) and root traits regulate plant acquisition of nitrogen (N), which is limiting to growth in Arctic ecosystems. With anthropogenic warming, a new N source from thawing permafrost has the potential to change vegetation composition and increase productivity, influencing climate feedbacks. Yet, the impact of warming on tundra plant root traits, RAF, and access to permafrost N is uncertain. We investigated the relationships between RAF, species-specific root traits, and uptake of N from the permafrost boundary by tundra plants experimentally warmed for nearly three decades at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Warming increased acquisitive root traits of nonmycorrhizal and mycorrhizal plants. RAF community composition of ericoid (ERM) but not ectomycorrhizal (ECM) shrubs was impacted by warming and correlated with root traits. RAF taxa in the dark septate endophyte, ERM, and ECM guilds strongly correlated with permafrost N uptake for ECM and ERM shrubs. Overall, a greater proportion of variation in permafrost N uptake was related to root traits than RAF. Our findings suggest that warming Arctic ecosystems will result in interactions between roots, RAF, and newly thawed permafrost that may strongly impact feedbacks to the climate system through mechanisms of carbon and N cycling.

Carboxylation capacity is the main limitation of carbon assimilation in High Arctic shrubs.

Increases in shrub height, biomass and canopy cover are key whole-plant features of warming-induced vegetation change in tundra. We investigated leaf functional traits underlying photosynthetic capacity of Arctic shrub species, particularly its main limiting processes such as mesophyll conductance. In this nutrient-limited ecosystem, we expect leaf nitrogen concentration to be the main limiting factor for photosynthesis. We measured the net photosynthetic rate at saturated light (Asat) in three Salix species throughout a glacial valley in High-Arctic tundra and used a causal approach to test relationships between leaf stomatal and mesophyll conductances (gsc, gm), carboxylation capacity (Vcmax), nitrogen and phosphorus concentration (Narea, Parea) and leaf mass ratio (LMA). Arctic Salix species showed no difference in Asat compared to a global data set, while being characterized by higher Narea, Parea and LMA. Vcmax, gsc and gm independently increased Asat, with Vcmax as its main limitation. We highlighted a nitrogen-influenced pathway for increasing photosynthesis in the two prostrate mesic habitat species. In contrast, the erect wetland habitat Salix richardsonii mainly increased Asat with increasing gsc. Overall, our study revealed high photosynthetic capacities of Arctic Salix species but contrasting regulatory pathways that may influence shrub ability to respond to environmental changes in High Arctic tundra.

Pixel walking along the boreal forest-Arctic tundra ecotone: Large scale ground-truthing of satellite-derived greenness (NDVI).

In this Technical Advance, we describe a novel method to improve ecological interpretation of remotely sensed vegetation greenness measurements that involved sampling 24,395 Landsat pixels (30 m) across 639 km of Alaska's central Brooks Range. The method goes well beyond the spatial scale of traditional plot-based sampling and thereby more thoroughly relates ground-based observations to satellite measurements. Our example dataset illustrates that, along the boreal-Arctic boundary, vegetation with the greatest Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is taller than 1 m, woody, and deciduous; whereas vegetation with lower NDVI tends to be shorter, evergreen, or non-woody. The field methods and associated analyses advance efforts to inform satellite data with ground-based vegetation observations using field samples collected at spatial scales that closely match the resolution of remotely sensed imagery.

Drivers of contemporary and future changes in Arctic seasonal transition dates for a tundra site in coastal Greenland.

Climate change has had a significant impact on the seasonal transition dates of Arctic tundra ecosystems, causing diverse variations between distinct land surface classes. However, the combined effect of multiple controls as well as their individual effects on these dates remains unclear at various scales and across diverse land surface classes. Here we quantified spatiotemporal variations of three seasonal transition dates (start of spring, maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVImax ) day, end of fall) for five dominating land surface classes in the ice-free Greenland. Using a distributed snow model, structural equation modeling, and a random forest model, based on ground observations and remote sensing data, we assessed the indirect and direct effects of climate, snow, and terrain on seasonal transition dates. We then presented new projections of likely changes in seasonal transition dates under six future climate scenarios. The coupled climate, snow cover, and terrain conditions explained up to 61% of seasonal transition dates across different land surface classes. Snow ending day played a crucial role in the start of spring and timing of NDVImax . A warmer June and a decline in wind could advance the NDVImax day. Increased precipitation and temperature during July-August are the most important for delaying the end of fall. We projected that a 1-4.5°C increase in temperature and a 5%-20% increase in precipitation would lengthen the spring-to-fall period for all five land surface classes by 2050, thus the current order of spring-to-fall lengths for the five land surface classes could undergo notable changes. Tall shrubs and fens would have a longer spring-to-fall period under the warmest and wettest scenario, suggesting a competitive advantage for these vegetation communities. This study's results illustrate controls on seasonal transition dates and portend potential changes in vegetation composition in the Arctic under climate change.

Arctic Tundra Plant Dieback Can Alter Surface N2O Fluxes and Interact With Summer Warming to Increase Soil Nitrogen Retention.

In recent years, the arctic tundra has been subject to more frequent stochastic biotic or extreme weather events (causing plant dieback) and warmer summer air temperatures. However, the combined effects of these perturbations on the tundra ecosystem remain uninvestigated. We experimentally simulated plant dieback by cutting vegetation and increased summer air temperatures (ca. +2°C) by using open-top chambers (OTCs) in an arctic heath tundra, West Greenland. We quantified surface greenhouse gas fluxes, measured soil gross N transformation rates, and investigated all ecosystem compartments (plants, soils, microbial biomass) to utilize or retain nitrogen (N) upon application of stable N-15 isotope tracer. Measurements from three growing seasons showed an immediate increase in surface CH4 and N2O uptake after the plant dieback. With time, surface N2O fluxes alternated between emission and uptake, and rates in both directions were occasionally affected, which was primarily driven by soil temperatures and soil moisture conditions. Four years after plant dieback, deciduous shrubs recovered their biomass but retained significantly lower amounts of 15N, suggesting the reduced capacity of deciduous shrubs to utilize and retain N. Among four plant functional groups, summer warming only increased the biomass of deciduous shrubs and their 15N retention, while following plant dieback deciduous shrubs showed no response to warming. This suggests that deciduous shrubs may not always benefit from climate warming over other functional groups when considering plant dieback events. Soil gross N mineralization (~ -50%) and nitrification rates (~ -70%) significantly decreased under both ambient and warmed conditions, while only under warmed conditions immobilization of NO3 - significantly increased (~ +1900%). This explains that plant dieback enhanced N retention in microbial biomass and thus bulk soils under warmed conditions. This study underscores the need to consider plant dieback events alongside summer warming to better predict future ecosystem-climate feedback.

Impact of three decades of warming, increased nutrient availability, and increased cloudiness on the fluxes of greenhouse gases and biogenic volatile organic compounds in a subarctic tundra heath.

Climate change is exposing subarctic ecosystems to higher temperatures, increased nutrient availability, and increasing cloud cover. In this study, we assessed how these factors affect the fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (i.e., methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2)), and biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) in a subarctic mesic heath subjected to 34 years of climate change related manipulations of temperature, nutrient availability, and light. GHGs were sampled from static chambers and gases analyzed with gas chromatograph. BVOCs were measured using the push-pull method and gases analyzed with chromatography-mass spectrometry. The soil temperature and moisture content in the warmed and shaded plots did not differ significantly from that in the controls during GHG and BVOC measurements. Also, the enclosure temperatures during BVOC measurements in the warmed and shaded plots did not differ significantly from temperatures in the controls. Hence, this allowed for assessment of long-term effects of the climate treatment manipulations without interference of temperature and moisture differences at the time of measurements. Warming enhanced CH4 uptake and the emissions of CO2, N2O, and isoprene. Increased nutrient availability increased the emissions of CO2 and N2O but caused no significant changes in the fluxes of CH4 and BVOCs. Shading (simulating increased cloudiness) enhanced CH4 uptake but caused no significant changes in the fluxes of other gases compared to the controls. The results show that climate warming and increased cloudiness will enhance CH4 sink strength of subarctic mesic heath ecosystems, providing negative climate feedback, while climate warming and enhanced nutrient availability will provide positive climate feedback through increased emissions of CO2 and N2O. Climate warming will also indirectly, through vegetation changes, increase the amount of carbon lost as isoprene from subarctic ecosystems.

Plant-soil interactions alter nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in an advancing subarctic treeline.

Treelines advance due to climate warming. The impacts of this vegetation shift on plant-soil nutrient cycling are still uncertain, yet highly relevant as nutrient availability stimulates tree growth. Here, we investigated nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in plant and soil pools along two tundra-forest transects on Kola Peninsula, Russia, with a documented elevation shift of birch-dominated treeline by 70 m during the last 50 years. Results show that although total N and P stocks in the soil-plant system did not change with elevation, their distribution was significantly altered. With the transition from high-elevation tundra to low-elevation forest, P stocks in stones decreased, possibly reflecting enhanced weathering. In contrast, N and P stocks in plant biomass approximately tripled and available P and N in the soil increased fivefold toward the forest. This was paralleled by decreasing carbon (C)-to-nutrient ratios in foliage and litter, smaller C:N:P ratios in microbial biomass, and lower enzymatic activities related to N and P acquisition in forest soils. An incubation experiment further demonstrated manifold higher N and P net mineralization rates in litter and soil in forest compared to tundra, likely due to smaller C:N:P ratios in decomposing organic matter. Overall, our results show that forest expansion increases the mobilization of available nutrients through enhanced weathering and positive plant-soil feedback, with nutrient-rich forest litter releasing greater amounts of N and P upon decomposition. While the low N and P availability in tundra may retard treeline advances, its improvement toward the forest likely promotes tree growth and forest development.

Flowering time responses to warming drive reproductive fitness in a changing Arctic.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, leading to earlier spring conditions and plant phenology. It is often unclear to what degree changes in reproductive fitness (flower, fruit, seed production) are a direct response to warming versus an indirect response through shifting phenology. This study aims to quantify the relative importance of these direct and indirect pathways and project the net effects of warming on plant phenology and reproductive fitness under current and future climate scenarios. METHODS: We used two long-term datasets on twelve tundra species in the Canadian Arctic as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Phenology and reproductive fitness were recorded annually on tagged individual plants at both Daring Lake, Northwest Territories (64.87, -111.58) and Alexandra Fiord, Nunavut (78.83, -75.80). Plant species encompass a wide taxonomic diversity across a range of plant functional types with circumpolar/boreal distributions. We use Hierarchical Bayesian Structural Equation models to compare the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on phenology and reproductive fitness across species, sites and years. KEY RESULTS: We find that warming, both experimental and ambient, drives earlier flowering across species, which leads to higher numbers of flowers and fruits produced, reflecting directional phenotypic selection for earlier flowering phenology. Furthermore, this indirect effect of climate warming mediated through phenology was generally ~2-3x stronger than the direct effect of climate on reproductive fitness. Under future climate predictions, individual plants showed a ~2 to 4.5-fold increase in their reproductive fitness (flower counts) with advanced flowering phenology. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that, on average, the benefits of early flowering, such as increased development time and subsequent enhanced reproductive fitness, may outweigh its risks. Overall, this work provides important insights into population-level consequences of phenological shifts in a warming Arctic over multi-decadal time scales.

Diversity of lichen mycobionts and photobionts and their relationships in the Ny-Ålesund region (Svalbard, High Arctic).

Lichens are dual organisms, with one major mycobiont and one major photobiont in each lichen symbiosis, which can survive extreme environmental conditions in the Arctic. However, the diversity and distribution of lichen photobionts in the Arctic remain poorly understood compared to their mycobiont partners. This study explored the diversity of lichen mycobionts and photobionts in 197 lichen samples collected from the Ny-Ålesund region (Svalbard, High Arctic). The nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) regions were sequenced and phylogenetic analyses were performed. The relationships between mycobionts and photobionts, as well as the association patterns, were also investigated. A total of 48 species of lichen mycobionts (16 families, nine orders) and 31 species/lineages of photobionts were identified. These 31 photobiont species belonged to one class (Trebouxiophyceae) and five genera, including 22 species of Trebouxia, five species of Asterochloris, two species of Chloroidium, one species of Symbiochloris, and one species of Coccomyxa. The results indicated that most analyzed lichen mycobionts could associate with multiple photobiont species, and the photobionts also exhibited a similar pattern. The results provided an important reference dataset for characterizing the diversity of lichen mycobionts and photobionts in the High Arctic region.

Phosphorus Interactions with Iron in Undisturbed and Disturbed Arctic Tundra Ecosystems.

Phosphorus (P) limitation often constrains biological processes in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Although adsorption to soil minerals may limit P bioavailability and export from soils into aquatic systems, the contribution of mineral phases to P retention in Arctic tundra is poorly understood. Our objective was to use X-ray absorption spectroscopy to characterize P speciation and associations with soil minerals along hillslope toposequences and in undisturbed and disturbed low-lying wet sedge tundra on the North Slope, AK. Biogenic mats comprised of short-range ordered iron (Fe) oxyhydroxides were prevalent in undisturbed wet sedge meadows. Upland soils and pond sediments impacted by gravel mining or thermokarst lacked biogenic Fe mats and were comparatively iron poor. Phosphorus was primarily contained in organic compounds in hillslope soils but associated with Fe(III) oxyhydroxides in undisturbed wet sedge meadows and calcium (Ca) in disturbed pond sediments. We infer that phosphate mobilized through organic decomposition binds to Fe(III) oxyhydroxides in wet sedge, but these associations are disrupted by physical disturbance that removes Fe mats. Increasing disturbances of the Arctic tundra may continue to alter the mineralogical composition of soils at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces and binding mechanisms that could inhibit or promote transport of bioavailable P from soils to aquatic ecosystems.

Vegetation biomass and topography are associated with seasonal habitat selection and fall translocation behavior in Arctic hares.

Habitat selection theory suggests that environmental features selected at coarse scales reveal fundamental factors affecting animal fitness. When these factors vary across seasons, they may lead to large-scale movements, including long-distance seasonal migrations. We analyzed the seasonal habitat selection of 25 satellite-tracked Arctic hares from a population on Ellesmere Island (Nunavut, Canada) that relocated over 100 km in the fall. Since no other lagomorph is known to perform such extensive movements, this population offered an ideal setting to test animal movement and habitat selection theory. On summer grounds hares selected low elevation areas, while on winter grounds they selected high vegetation biomass, high elevation, and steep slopes. During fall relocation, they alternated between stopover and traveling behavioral states (ratio 2:1). Stopover locations were characterized by higher vegetation heterogeneity and lower rugosity than traveling locations, while vegetation biomass and elevation interacted to explain stopover locations in a more complex way. The selected combination of environmental features thus varied across seasons and behavioral states, in a way broadly consistent with predictions based on the changing food and safety needs of hares. Although causality was not demonstrated, our results improve our understanding of long-distance movements and habitat selection in Arctic hares, as well as herbivore ecology in the polar desert. Results also provide strong support to animal movement and habitat selection theory, by showing how some important hypotheses hold when tested in a species phylogenetically distinct from most animal models used in this research field.

Late Pleistocene shrub expansion preceded megafauna turnover and extinctions in eastern Beringia.

The collapse of the steppe-tundra biome (mammoth steppe) at the end of the Pleistocene is used as an important example of top-down ecosystem cascades, where human hunting of keystone species led to profound changes in vegetation across high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Alternatively, it is argued that this biome transformation occurred through a bottom-up process, where climate-driven expansion of shrub tundra (Betula, Salix spp.) replaced the steppe-tundra vegetation that grazing megafauna taxa relied on. In eastern Beringia, these differing hypotheses remain largely untested, in part because the precise timing and spatial pattern of Late Pleistocene shrub expansion remains poorly resolved. This uncertainty is caused by chronological ambiguity in many lake sediment records, which typically rely on radiocarbon (14C) dates from bulk sediment or aquatic macrofossils-materials that are known to overestimate the age of sediment layers. Here, we reexamine Late Pleistocene pollen records for which 14C dating of terrestrial macrofossils is available and augment these data with 14C dates from arctic ground-squirrel middens and plant macrofossils. Comparing these paleovegetation data with a database of published 14C dates from megafauna remains, we find the postglacial expansion of shrub tundra preceded the regional extinctions of horse (Equus spp.) and mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) and began during a period when the frequency of 14C dates indicates large grazers were abundant. These results are not consistent with a model of top-down ecosystem cascades and support the hypothesis that climate-driven habitat loss preceded and contributed to turnover in mammal communities.

Climate variability and density-dependent population dynamics: Lessons from a simple High Arctic ecosystem.

Ecologists are still puzzled by the diverse population dynamics of herbivorous small mammals that range from high-amplitude, multiannual cycles to stable dynamics. Theory predicts that this diversity results from combinations of climatic seasonality, weather stochasticity, and density-dependent food web interactions. The almost ubiquitous 3- to 5-y cycles in boreal and arctic climates may theoretically result from bottom-up (plant-herbivore) and top-down (predator-prey) interactions. Assessing, empirically, the roles of such interactions and how they are influenced by environmental stochasticity has been hampered by food web complexity. Here, we take advantage of a uniquely simple High Arctic food web, which allowed us to analyze the dynamics of a graminivorous vole population not subjected to top-down regulation. This population exhibited high-amplitude, noncyclic fluctuations-partly driven by weather stochasticity. However, the predominant driver of the dynamics was overcompensatory density dependence in winter that caused the population to frequently crash. Model simulations showed that the seasonal pattern of density dependence would yield regular 2-y cycles in the absence of stochasticity. While such short cycles have not yet been observed in mammals, they are theoretically plausible if graminivorous vole populations are deterministically bottom-up regulated. When incorporating weather stochasticity in the model simulations, cyclicity became disrupted and the amplitude was increased-akin to the observed dynamics. Our findings contrast with the 3- to 5-y population cycles that are typical of graminivorous small mammals in more complex food webs, suggesting that top-down regulation is normally an important component of such dynamics.

Analysis of taiga and tundra lake browning trends from 2002 to 2021 using MODIS data.

Lakes in taiga and tundra regions may be silently undergoing changes due to global warming. One of those changes is browning in lake color. The browning interacts with the carbon cycle, ecosystem dynamics, and water quality in freshwater systems. However, spatiotemporal variabilities of browning in these regions have not been well documented. Using MODIS remote sensing reflectance at near ultraviolet wavelengths from 2002 to 2021 on the Google Earth Engine platform, we quantified long-term browning trends across 7616 lakes (larger than 10 km2) in taiga and tundra biomes. These lakes showed an overall decreased trend in browning (Theil-Sen Slope = 0.00015), with ∼36% of these lakes showing browning trends, and ∼1% of these lakes showing statistically significant (p-value <0.05) browning trends. The browning trends more likely occurred in small lakes in high latitude, low ground ice content regions, where air temperature increased and precipitation decreased. While temperature is projected to increase in response to climate change, our results provide one means to understand how biogeochemical cycles and ecological dynamics respond to climate change.

Seed limitation interacts with biotic and abiotic factors to constrain novel species' impact on community biomass and richness.

Seed limitation can narrow down the number of coexisting plant species, limit plant community productivity, and also constrain community responses to changing environmental and biotic conditions. In a 10-year full-factorial experiment of seed addition, fertilisation, warming and herbivore exclusion, we tested how seed addition alters community richness and biomass, and how its effects depend on seed origin and biotic and abiotic context. We found that seed addition increased species richness in all treatments, and increased plant community biomass depending on nutrient addition and warming. Novel species, originally absent from the communities, increased biomass the most, especially in fertilised plots and in the absence of herbivores, while adding seeds of local species did not affect biomass. Our results show that seed limitation constrains both community richness and biomass, and highlight the importance of considering trophic interactions and soil nutrients when assessing novel species immigrations and their effects on community biomass.

Predator-mediated interactions through changes in predator home range size can lead to local prey exclusion.

The strength of indirect biotic interactions is difficult to quantify in the wild and can alter community composition. To investigate whether the presence of a prey species affects the population growth rate of another prey species, we quantified predator-mediated interaction strength using a multi-prey mechanistic model of predation and a population matrix model. Models were parametrized using behavioural, demographic and experimental data from a vertebrate community that includes the arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), a predator feeding on lemmings and eggs of various species such as sandpipers and geese. We show that the positive effects of the goose colony on sandpiper nesting success (due to reduction of search time for sandpiper nests) were outweighed by the negative effect of an increase in fox density. The fox numerical response was driven by changes in home range size. As a result, the net interaction from the presence of geese was negative and could lead to local exclusion of sandpipers. Our study provides a rare empirically based model that integrates mechanistic multi-species functional responses and behavioural processes underlying the predator numerical response. This is an important step forward in our ability to quantify the consequences of predation for community structure and dynamics.

Distinct Growth Responses of Tundra Soil Bacteria to Short-Term and Long-Term Warming.

Increases in Arctic temperatures have thawed permafrost and accelerated tundra soil microbial activity, releasing greenhouse gases that amplify climate warming. Warming over time has also accelerated shrub encroachment in the tundra, altering plant input abundance and quality, and causing further changes to soil microbial processes. To better understand the effects of increased temperature and the accumulated effects of climate change on soil bacterial activity, we quantified the growth responses of individual bacterial taxa to short-term warming (3 months) and long-term warming (29 years) in moist acidic tussock tundra. Intact soil was assayed in the field for 30 days using 18O-labeled water, from which taxon-specific rates of 18O incorporation into DNA were estimated as a proxy for growth. Experimental treatments warmed the soil by approximately 1.5°C. Short-term warming increased average relative growth rates across the assemblage by 36%, and this increase was attributable to emergent growing taxa not detected in other treatments that doubled the diversity of growing bacteria. However, long-term warming increased average relative growth rates by 151%, and this was largely attributable to taxa that co-occurred in the ambient temperature controls. There was also coherence in relative growth rates within broad taxonomic levels with orders tending to have similar growth rates in all treatments. Growth responses tended to be neutral in short-term warming and positive in long-term warming for most taxa and phylogenetic groups co-occurring across treatments regardless of phylogeny. Taken together, growing bacteria responded distinctly to short-term and long-term warming, and taxa growing in each treatment exhibited deep phylogenetic organization. IMPORTANCE Soil carbon stocks in the tundra and underlying permafrost have become increasingly vulnerable to microbial decomposition due to climate change. The microbial responses to Arctic warming must be understood in order to predict the effects of future microbial activity on carbon balance in a warming Arctic. In response to our warming treatments, tundra soil bacteria grew faster, consistent with increased rates of decomposition and carbon flux to the atmosphere. Our findings suggest that bacterial growth rates may continue to increase in the coming decades as faster growth is driven by the accumulated effects of long-term warming. Observed phylogenetic organization of bacterial growth rates may also permit taxonomy-based predictions of bacterial responses to climate change and inclusion into ecosystem models.

Insights into the tussock growth form with model-data fusion.

Some rhizomatous grass and sedge species form tussocks that impact ecosystem structure and function. Despite their importance, tussock development and size controls are poorly understood due to the decadal to centennial timescales over which tussocks form. We explored mechanisms regulating tussock development and size in a ubiquitous arctic tussock sedge (Eriophorum vaginatum) using field observations and a mass balance model coupled with a tiller population model. Model-data fusion was used to quantify parameter and prediction uncertainty, determine model sensitivity, and test hypotheses on the factors regulating tussock size. The model accurately captured the dynamics of tussock development, characteristics, and size observed in the field. Tussock growth approached maximal size within several decades, which was determined by feedbacks between the mass balance of tussock root necromass and density-dependent tillering. The model also predicted that maximal tussock size was primarily regulated by tiller root productivity and necromass bulk density and less so by tiller demography. These predictions were corroborated by field observations of tussock biomass and root characteristics. The study highlights the importance of belowground processes in regulating tussock development and size and enhances our understanding of the influence of tussocks on arctic ecosystem structure and function.