Long-term assessment of relationships between changing environmental conditions and the physiology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus).

Climate change is influencing polar bear (Ursus maritimus) habitat, diet, and behavior but the effects of these changes on their physiology is not well understood. Blood-based biomarkers are used to assess the physiologic health of individuals but their usefulness for evaluating population health, especially as it relates to changing environmental conditions, has rarely been explored. We describe links between environmental conditions and physiologic functions of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears using data from blood samples collected from 1984 to 2018, a period marked by extensive environmental change. We evaluated associations between 13 physiologic biomarkers and circumpolar (Arctic oscillation index) and regional (wind patterns and ice-free days) environmental metrics and seasonal and demographic co-variates (age, sex, season, and year) known to affect polar bear ecology. We observed signs of dysregulation of water balance in polar bears following years with a lower annual Arctic oscillation index. In addition, liver enzyme values increased over time, which is suggestive of potential hepatocyte damage as the Arctic has warmed. Biomarkers of immune function increased with regional-scale wind patterns and the number of ice-free days over the Beaufort Sea continental shelf and were lower in years with a lower winter Arctic oscillation index, suggesting an increased allocation of energetic resources for immune processes under these conditions. We propose that the variation in polar bear immune and metabolic function is likely indicative of physiologic plasticity, a response that allows polar bears to remain in homeostasis even as they experience changes in nutrition and habitat in response to changing environments.

Diet energy density estimated from isotopes in predator hair associated with survival, habitat, and population dynamics.

Sea ice loss is fundamentally altering the Arctic marine environment. Yet there is a paucity of data on the adaptability of food webs to ecosystem change, including predator-prey interactions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are an important subsistence resource for Indigenous people and an apex predator that relies entirely on the under-ice food web to meet its energy needs. In this study, we assessed whether polar bears maintained dietary energy density by prey switching in response to spatiotemporal variation in prey availability. We compared the macronutrient composition of diets inferred from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in polar bear guard hair (primarily representing summer/fall diet) during periods when bears had low and high survival (2004-2016), between bears that summered on land versus pack ice, and between bears occupying different regions of the Alaskan and Canadian Beaufort Sea. Polar bears consumed diets with lower energy density during periods of low survival, suggesting that concurrent increased dietary proportions of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) did not offset reduced proportions of ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Diets with the lowest energy density and proportions from ringed seal blubber were consumed by bears in the western Beaufort Sea (Alaska) during a period when polar bear abundance declined. Intake required to meet energy requirements of an average free-ranging adult female polar bear was 2.1 kg/day on diets consumed during years with high survival but rose to 3.0 kg/day when survival was low. Although bears that summered onshore in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea had higher-fat diets than bears that summered on the pack ice, access to the remains of subsistence-harvested bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) contributed little to improving diet energy density. Because most bears in this region remain with the sea ice year round, prey switching and consumption of whale carcasses onshore appear insufficient to augment diets when availability of their primary prey, ringed seals, is reduced. Our results show that a strong predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals continues in the Beaufort Sea. The method of estimating dietary blubber using predator hair, demonstrated here, provides a new metric to monitor predator-prey relationships that affect individual health and population demographics.

The use of infrared thermography to noninvasively measure the surface temperature of polar bears during bouts of social play.

Infrared thermography or thermal imagery is a noninvasive tool that can be used to measure the temperature of surfaces. Typically, thermal imagery is used for construction or military purposes but is increasingly used as a noninvasive tool in wildlife studies. We investigated the use of thermal imagery to measure surface temperature changes as a proxy for energetic expenditure. We measured the surface temperature of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) eyes, while immobilized, to determine whether the eye is a thermal window that can accurately indicate internal temperature. We found a significant difference (2.68 ± 0.41°C) between the surface temperature of the eye measured with thermal imagery and the internal rectal temperature. Additionally, we measured surface temperature changes in polar bears after bouts of social play as a proxy for energy expenditure. Mean temperature of the eye increased by 1.34 ± 0.43°C after social play, indicating that this activity increased energy expenditure. During the fasting season, polar bears rely on fat stores, and any energy expenditure beyond what is required to travel may be costly to their survival, particularly in years of low resource availability. We conclude that thermal imagery is a useful tool to noninvasively investigate the energetics of social play.

Sea ice reduction drives genetic differentiation among Barents Sea polar bears.

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is predicted to reduce both genetic diversity and gene flow in ice-dependent species, with potentially negative consequences for their long-term viability. Here, we tested for the population-genetic impacts of reduced sea ice cover on the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sampled across two decades (1995-2016) from the Svalbard Archipelago, Norway, an area that is affected by rapid sea ice loss in the Arctic Barents Sea. We analysed genetic variation at 22 microsatellite loci for 626 polar bears from four sampling areas within the archipelago. Our results revealed a 3-10% loss of genetic diversity across the study period, accompanied by a near 200% increase in genetic differentiation across regions. These effects may best be explained by a decrease in gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation owing to the loss of sea ice coverage, resulting in increased inbreeding of local polar bears within the focal sampling areas in the Svalbard Archipelago. This study illustrates the importance of genetic monitoring for developing adaptive management strategies for polar bears and other ice-dependent species.

Polar bear-adapted Ursidibacter maritimus are remarkably conserved after generations in captivity.

Most species in the bacterial family of Pasteurellaceae colonize one specific host species. Vertebrates of very different evolutionary descent including fish, turtles, marsupials, eutherians and birds are colonized by different members of Pasteurellaceae. This one-to-one microbial-host species partnership makes Pasteurellaceae species valuable candidates to study biodiversity, bacterial-host co-evolution and host adaptation, and their widespread distribution across vertebrates provide the possibility to collect a wide array of data, where wildlife species are essential. However, obtaining samples from wild animals comes with logistic, technical and ethical challenges, and previous microbiota studies have led to the presumption that captive animals are poor models for microbial studies in wildlife. Here, we show that colonization of polar bears by Ursidibacter maritimus is unaffected by factors related to captivity, reflecting a deep symbiotic bond to the host. We argue that the study of ecological and evolutionary principles in captive wildlife is possible for host-adapted taxa such as those in the Pasteurellaceae family. Moreover, studying captive, often trained animals protects wild populations from the stress associated with obtaining samples.

Long-term increases in pathogen seroprevalence in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) influenced by climate change.

The influence of climate change on wildlife disease dynamics is a burgeoning conservation and human health issue, but few long-term studies empirically link climate to pathogen prevalence. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are vulnerable to the negative impacts of sea ice loss as a result of accelerated Arctic warming. While studies have associated changes in polar bear body condition, reproductive output, survival, and abundance to reductions in sea ice, no long-term studies have documented the impact of climate change on pathogen exposure. We examined 425 serum samples from 381 adult polar bears, collected in western Hudson Bay (WH), Canada, for antibodies to selected pathogens across three time periods: 1986-1989 (n = 157), 1995-1998 (n = 159) and 2015-2017 (n = 109). We ran serological assays for antibodies to seven pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii, Neospora caninum, Trichinella spp., Francisella tularensis, Bordetella bronchiseptica, canine morbillivirus (CDV) and canine parvovirus (CPV). Seroprevalence of zoonotic parasites (T. gondii, Trichinella spp.) and bacterial pathogens (F. tularensis, B. bronchiseptica) increased significantly between 1986-1989 and 1995-1998, ranging from +6.2% to +20.8%, with T. gondii continuing to increase into 2015-2017 (+25.8% overall). Seroprevalence of viral pathogens (CDV, CPV) and N. caninum did not change with time. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence was higher following wetter summers, while seroprevalences of Trichinella spp. and B. bronchiseptica were positively correlated with hotter summers. Seroprevalence of antibodies to F. tularensis increased following years polar bears spent more days on land, and polar bears previously captured in human settlements were more likely to be seropositive for Trichinella spp. As the Arctic has warmed due to climate change, zoonotic pathogen exposure in WH polar bears has increased, driven by numerous altered ecosystem pathways.

Seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns influence polar bear body condition, recruitment, and feeding ecology in the Chukchi Sea.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are experiencing loss of sea ice habitats used to access their marine mammal prey. Simultaneously, ocean warming is changing ecosystems that support marine mammal populations. The interactive effects of sea ice and prey are not well understood yet may explain spatial-temporal variation in the response of polar bears to sea ice loss. Here, we examined the potential combined effects of sea ice, seal body condition, and atmospheric circulation patterns on the body condition, recruitment, diet, and feeding probability of 469 polar bears captured in the Chukchi Sea, 2008-2017. The body condition of ringed seals (Pusa hispida), the primary prey of females and subadults, was related to dietary proportions of ringed seal, feeding probability, and the body condition of females and cubs. In contrast, adult males consumed more bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) and exhibited better condition when bearded seal body condition was higher. The litter size, number of yearlings per adult female, and the condition of dependent young were higher following winters characterized by low Arctic Oscillation conditions, consistent with a growing number of studies. Body condition, recruitment, and feeding probability were either not associated or negatively associated with sea ice conditions, suggesting that, unlike some subpopulations, Chukchi Sea bears are not currently limited by sea ice availability. However, spring sea ice cover declined 2% per year during our study reaching levels not previously observed in the satellite record and resulting in the loss of polar bear hunting and seal pupping habitat. Our study suggests that the status of ice seal populations is likely an important factor that can either compound or mitigate the response of polar bears to sea ice loss over the short term. In the long term, neither polar bears nor their prey are likely robust to limitless loss of their sea ice habitat.

Physiological consequences of Arctic sea ice loss on large marine carnivores: unique responses by polar bears and narwhals.

Rapid environmental changes in the Arctic are threatening the survival of marine species that rely on the predictable presence of the sea ice. Two Arctic marine mammal specialists, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and narwhal (Monodon monoceros), appear especially vulnerable to the speed and capriciousness of sea ice deterioration as a consequence of their unique hunting behaviors and diet, as well as their physiological adaptations for slow-aerobic exercise. These intrinsic characteristics limit the ability of these species to respond to extrinsic threats associated with environmental change and increased industrial activity in a warming Arctic. In assessing how sea ice loss may differentially affect polar bears that hunt on the ice surface and narwhals that hunt at extreme depths below, we found that major ice loss translated into elevated locomotor costs that range from 3- to 4-fold greater than expected for both species. For polar bears this instigates an energy imbalance from the combined effects of reduced caloric intake and increased energy expenditure. For narwhals, high locomotor costs during diving increase the risk of ice entrapment due to the unreliability of breathing holes. These species-specific physiological constraints and extreme reliance on the polar sea ice conspire to make these two marine mammal specialists sentinels of climate change within the Arctic marine ecosystem that may foreshadow rapid changes to the marine ecosystem.

Demographic risk assessment for a harvested species threatened by climate change: polar bears in the Chukchi Sea.

Climate change threatens global biodiversity. Many species vulnerable to climate change are important to humans for nutritional, cultural, and economic reasons. Polar bears Ursus maritimus are threatened by sea-ice loss and represent a subsistence resource for Indigenous people. We applied a novel population modeling-management framework that is based on species life history and accounts for habitat loss to evaluate subsistence harvest for the Chukchi Sea (CS) polar bear subpopulation. Harvest strategies followed a state-dependent approach under which new data were used to update the harvest on a predetermined management interval. We found that a harvest strategy with a starting total harvest rate of 2.7% (˜85 bears/yr at current abundance), a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, and a 10-yr management interval would likely maintain subpopulation abundance above maximum net productivity level for the next 35 yr (approximately three polar bear generations), our primary criterion for sustainability. Plausible bounds on starting total harvest rate were 1.7-3.9%, where the range reflects uncertainty due to sampling variation, environmental variation, model selection, and differing levels of risk tolerance. The risk of undesired demographic outcomes (e.g., overharvest) was positively related to harvest rate, management interval, and projected declines in environmental carrying capacity; and negatively related to precision in population data. Results reflect several lines of evidence that the CS subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will last as sea-ice loss continues. Our methods provide a template for balancing trade-offs among protection, use, research investment, and other factors. Demographic risk assessment and state-dependent management will become increasingly important for harvested species, like polar bears, that exhibit spatiotemporal variation in their response to climate change.

Analysis of hair steroid hormones in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) via liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry: comparison with two immunoassays and application for longitudinal monitoring in zoos.

Analysis of hair cortisol concentrations (HCCs) is a promising method for monitoring long-term stress in mammals. However, previous measurements of HCCs in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have yielded highly variable results, which are likely due to different methodological approaches. In this study, hair samples of zoo-housed polar bears were analyzed for cortisol with two independent immunoassays [an enzyme-linked immunoassay (EIA) and a chemiluminescence assay (CLIA)] and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). HCC measurements depended significantly on assay type applied, sample processing (cutting vs. powdering hair) and their interaction. Best agreement was observed between LC-MS/MS and CLIA (R2 = 0.81 for powdered hair) and sample processing had a minor, albeit significant, effect on obtained HCC measurements in these assays (R2 > 0.9). EIA measurements were consistently higher than with the other assays. HCC measurement was validated biologically for CLIA and LC-MS/MS in one male polar bear that experienced considerable stress for a prolonged period of time (> 18 weeks). Subsequently, by using the validated LC-MS/MS the measurement of cortisol could be complemented by the analysis of other steroids including cortisone, testosterone and progesterone levels from hair samples collected over a 9-month period (5-13 months) from six zoo-housed polar bears (five males, one female). No seasonal steroid variation was observed except in male progesterone levels. For all steroids except cortisone, a strong body region effect (neck or paw) was observed. Cortisol and cortisone, as well as progesterone and testosterone, concentrations were positively correlated. We show that hair steroid concentrations can be used to longitudinally measure stress and reproductive hormone axes in polar bears. The data established herein provide important basic information regarding methodology and study design for assessing hair steroid hormones.

Modeling optimal responses and fitness consequences in a changing Arctic.

Animals must balance a series of costs and benefits while trying to maximize their fitness. For example, an individual may need to choose how much energy to allocate to reproduction versus growth, or how much time to spend on vigilance versus foraging. Their decisions depend on complex interactions between environmental conditions, behavioral plasticity, reproductive biology, and energetic demands. As animals respond to novel environmental conditions caused by climate change, the optimal decisions may shift. Stochastic dynamic programming provides a flexible modeling framework with which to explore these trade-offs, but this method has not yet been used to study possible changes in optimal trade-offs caused by climate change. We created a stochastic dynamic programming model capturing trade-off decisions required by an individual adult female polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as well as the fitness consequences of her decisions. We predicted optimal foraging decisions throughout her lifetime as well as the energetic thresholds below which it is optimal for her to abandon a reproductive attempt. To explore the effects of climate change, we shortened the spring feeding period by up to 3 weeks, which led to predictions of riskier foraging behavior and higher reproductive thresholds. The resulting changes in fitness may be interpreted as a best-case scenario, where bears adapt instantaneously and optimally to new environmental conditions. If the spring feeding period was reduced by 1 week, her expected fitness declined by 15%, and if reduced by 3 weeks, expected fitness declined by 68%. This demonstrates an effective way to explore a species' optimal response to a changing landscape of costs and benefits and highlights the fact that small annual effects can result in large cumulative changes in expected lifetime fitness.

Accounting for phenology in the analysis of animal movement.

The analysis of animal tracking data provides important scientific understanding and discovery in ecology. Observations of animal trajectories using telemetry devices provide researchers with information about the way animals interact with their environment and each other. For many species, specific geographical features in the landscape can have a strong effect on behavior. Such features may correspond to a single point (eg, dens or kill sites), or to higher dimensional subspaces (eg, rivers or lakes). Features may be relatively static in time (eg, coastlines or home-range centers), or may be dynamic (eg, sea ice extent or areas of high-quality forage for herbivores). We introduce a novel model for animal movement that incorporates active selection for dynamic features in a landscape. Our approach is motivated by the study of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) movement. During the sea ice melt season, polar bears spend much of their time on sea ice above shallow, biologically productive water where they hunt seals. The changing distribution and characteristics of sea ice throughout the year mean that the location of valuable habitat is constantly shifting. We develop a model for the movement of polar bears that accounts for the effect of this important landscape feature. We introduce a two-stage procedure for approximate Bayesian inference that allows us to analyze over 300 000 observed locations of 186 polar bears from 2012 to 2016. We use our model to estimate a spatial boundary of interest to wildlife managers that separates two subpopulations of polar bears from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.

Clostridium (Clostridioides) difficile shedding by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic.

Clostridium (Clostridioides) difficile has been identified in humans and a wide range of animal species, but there has been little study of remote animal populations with limited human contact. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and types of C. difficile in wild and captive polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Fecal samples were collected from two populations of wild polar bears in Nunavut Canada; M'Clintock Channel and Hudson Strait (Davis Strait or Foxe Basin), as well as from a facility (PBJ) in Churchill, Manitoba that temporarily houses nuisance polar bears and from captive bears in a zoological park. Enrichment culture was performed and isolates were characterized by ribotyping and toxinotyping. Clostridium difficile was isolated from 24/143 (16.8%) of samples; 18/120 (15%) wild bear samples, 4/7 (57%) from the PBJ and 2/16 (13%) samples from three zoo bears. The prevalence of C. difficile was significantly higher in bears that were housed at the PBJ vs wild bears (P = 0.0042), but there was no difference between wild bears from M'Clintock Channel (14/100, 14%) and those from Hudson Strait (4/20, 20%) (P = 0.50). Fourteen of the 24 (58%) isolates were toxigenic; 13/18 (72%) wild bear isolates, 0/4 PBJ isolate and 1/2 zoo isolates. Four toxigenic ribotypes were identified, with one that possessed tcdB and cdtA predominating. None of the toxigenic isolates were ribotypes that have been identified previously by the authors. There was no overlap in toxigenic ribotypes between the different populations. Clostridium difficile was not uncommonly identified in polar bears, with differences in type distribution amongst the different regions. The presence of strains that have not been identified in humans or domestic animals suggests that polar bears may be a natural reservoir of unique strains of this important bacterium.

Energetic costs of locomotion in bears: is plantigrade locomotion energetically economical?

Ursids are the largest mammals to retain a plantigrade posture. This primitive posture has been proposed to result in reduced locomotor speed and economy relative to digitigrade and unguligrade species, particularly at high speeds. Previous energetics research on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) found locomotor costs were more than double predictions for similarly sized quadrupedal mammals, which could be a result of their plantigrade posture or due to adaptations to their Arctic marine existence. To evaluate whether polar bears are representative of terrestrial ursids or distinctly uneconomical walkers, this study measured the mass-specific metabolism, overall dynamic body acceleration, and gait kinematics of polar bears and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) trained to rest and walk on a treadmill. At routine walking speeds, we found polar bears and grizzly bears exhibited similar costs of locomotion and gait kinematics, but differing measures of overall dynamic body acceleration. Minimum cost of transport while walking in the two species (2.21 J kg-1 m-1) was comparable to predictions for similarly sized quadrupedal mammals, but these costs doubled (4.42 J kg-1 m-1) at speeds ≥5.4 km h-1 Similar to humans, another large plantigrade mammal, bears appear to exhibit a greater economy while moving at slow speeds.

SURVEY FOR EQUINE HERPESVIRUSES IN POLAR BEARS ( URSUS MARITIMUS) AND EXOTIC EQUIDS HOUSED IN US AZA INSTITUTIONS.

Infection by equine herpesvirus (EHV) strains (EHV-1, EHV-9) in ursid species, including polar bears ( Ursus maritimus), has been associated with neurological disease and death. A serosurvey of captive exotic equid and polar bear populations in US Association of Zoos and Aquaria institutions was performed to determine the prevalence of EHV strains using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests. Equid species surveyed included zebra ( Equus spp.), Przewalski's wild horse ( Equus ferus przewalskii), Persian onager ( Equus hemionus), and Somali wild ass ( Equus africanus somaliensis). A questionnaire regarding husbandry and medical variables was distributed to institutions housing polar bears. No polar bears tested positive for EHVs on qPCR of blood or nasal swabs. No exotic equids tested positive for EHVs on qPCR of blood, but two exotic equids ( n = 2/22; 9%) tested positive for EHVs on qPCR of nasal swabs. On ELISA, polar bears infrequently were positive for EHV-1 ( n = 5/38; 13%). Exotic equids were positive for EHV-4 on ELISA more frequently ( n = 30/43; 70%) than for EHV-1 ( n = 8/43; 19%). Nine institutions submitted samples from both exotic equids and polar bears, two of which had both exotic equids and polar bears positive for EHVs by ELISA. Each of these institutions reported that the polar bear and exotic equid exhibits were within 80 m of each other and that risk factors for fomite transmission between exhibits based on husbandry practices were present. One institution that did not house exotic equids had a polar bear test positive for EHV-1 on ELISA, with no history of exposure to exotic equids. Further testing of captive polar bears and exotic equids is recommended, as is modification of husbandry practices to limit exposure of polar bears to exotic equids.

Increased Arctic sea ice drift alters adult female polar bear movements and energetics.

Recent reductions in thickness and extent have increased drift rates of Arctic sea ice. Increased ice drift could significantly affect the movements and the energy balance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) which forage, nearly exclusively, on this substrate. We used radio-tracking and ice drift data to quantify the influence of increased drift on bear movements, and we modeled the consequences for energy demands of adult females in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas during two periods with different sea ice characteristics. Westward and northward drift of the sea ice used by polar bears in both regions increased between 1987-1998 and 1999-2013. To remain within their home ranges, polar bears responded to the higher westward ice drift with greater eastward movements, while their movements north in the spring and south in fall were frequently aided by ice motion. To compensate for more rapid westward ice drift in recent years, polar bears covered greater daily distances either by increasing their time spent active (7.6%-9.6%) or by increasing their travel speed (8.5%-8.9%). This increased their calculated annual energy expenditure by 1.8%-3.6% (depending on region and reproductive status), a cost that could be met by capturing an additional 1-3 seals/year. Polar bears selected similar habitats in both periods, indicating that faster drift did not alter habitat preferences. Compounding reduced foraging opportunities that result from habitat loss; changes in ice drift, and associated activity increases, likely exacerbate the physiological stress experienced by polar bears in a warming Arctic.

An Arctic predator-prey system in flux: climate change impacts on coastal space use by polar bears and ringed seals.

Climate change is impacting different species at different rates, leading to alterations in biological interactions with ramifications for wider ecosystem functioning. Understanding these alterations can help improve predictive capacity and inform management efforts designed to mitigate against negative impacts. We investigated how the movement and space use patterns of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in coastal areas in Svalbard, Norway, have been altered by a sudden decline in sea ice that occurred in 2006. We also investigated whether the spatial overlap between polar bears and their traditionally most important prey, ringed seals (Pusa hispida), has been affected by the sea-ice decline, as polar bears are dependent on a sea-ice platform for hunting seals. We attached biotelemetry devices to ringed seals (n = 60, both sexes) and polar bears (n = 67, all females) before (2002-2004) and after (2010-2013) a sudden decline in sea ice in Svalbard. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate the association of these species to environmental features and an approach based on Time Spent in Area to investigate changes in spatial overlap between the two species. Following the sea-ice reduction, polar bears spent the same amount of time close to tidal glacier fronts in the spring but less time in these areas during the summer and autumn. However, ringed seals did not alter their association with glacier fronts during summer, leading to a major decrease in spatial overlap values between these species in Svalbard's coastal areas. Polar bears now move greater distances daily and spend more time close to ground-nesting bird colonies, where bear predation can have substantial local effects. Our results indicate that sea-ice declines have impacted the degree of spatial overlap and hence the strength of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals, with consequences for the wider Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Shifts in ecological interactions are likely to become more widespread in many ecosystems as both predators and prey respond to changing environmental conditions induced by global warming, highlighting the importance of multi-species studies.

Habitat degradation affects the summer activity of polar bears.

Understanding behavioral responses of species to environmental change is critical to forecasting population-level effects. Although climate change is significantly impacting species' distributions, few studies have examined associated changes in behavior. Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations have varied in their near-term responses to sea ice decline. We examined behavioral responses of two adjacent subpopulations to changes in habitat availability during the annual sea ice minimum using activity data. Location and activity sensor data collected from 1989 to 2014 for 202 adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) subpopulations were used to compare activity in three habitat types varying in prey availability: (1) land; (2) ice over shallow, biologically productive waters; and (3) ice over deeper, less productive waters. Bears varied activity across and within habitats with the highest activity at 50-75% sea ice concentration over shallow waters. On land, SB bears exhibited variable but relatively high activity associated with the use of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale carcasses, whereas CS bears exhibited low activity consistent with minimal feeding. Both subpopulations had fewer observations in their preferred shallow-water sea ice habitats in recent years, corresponding with declines in availability of this substrate. The substantially higher use of marginal habitats by SB bears is an additional mechanism potentially explaining why this subpopulation has experienced negative effects of sea ice loss compared to the still-productive CS subpopulation. Variability in activity among, and within, habitats suggests that bears alter their behavior in response to habitat conditions, presumably in an attempt to balance prey availability with energy costs.

Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay.

Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993-1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653-984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001-2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98-1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00-1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92-1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations.

Circumpolar contaminant concentrations in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and potential population-level effects.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) currently receive much attention in the context of global climate change. However, there are other stressors that might threaten the viability of polar bear populations as well, such as exposure to anthropogenic pollutants. Lipophilic organic compounds bio-accumulate and bio-magnify in the food chain, leading to high concentrations at the level of top-predators. In Arctic wildlife, including the polar bear, various adverse health effects have been related to internal concentrations of commercially used anthropogenic chemicals like PCB and DDT. The extent to which these individual health effects are associated to population-level effects is, however, unknown. In this study we assembled data on adipose tissue concentrations of ∑PCB, ∑DDT, dieldrin and ∑PBDE in individual polar bears from peer-reviewed scientific literature. Data were available for 14 out of the 19 subpopulations. We found that internal concentrations of these contaminants exceed threshold values for adverse individual health effects in several subpopulations. In an exploratory regression analysis we identified a clear negative correlation between polar bear population density and sub-population specific contaminant concentrations in adipose tissue. The results suggest that adverse health effects of contaminants in individual polar bears may scale up to population-level consequences. Our study highlights the need to consider contaminant exposure along with other threats in polar bear population viability analyses.