Measuring Human Immunodeficiency Virus Reservoirs: Do We Need to Choose Between Quantity and Quality?

The persistence of latent viral genomes in people receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the main obstacle to a cure for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Viral reservoirs can be defined as cells harboring HIV genomes that have the ability to produce infectious virions. Precise quantification of the cellular reservoirs of HIV is challenging because these cells are rare, heterogeneous, and outnumbered by a larger number of cells carrying defective genomes. In addition, measuring the inducibility of these proviruses requires functional assays and remains technically difficult. The recent development of single-cell and single-viral genome approaches revealed additional layers of complexity: the cell subsets that harbor proviruses are heterogeneous and their ability to be induced is variable. A substantial fraction of intact HIV genomes may be permanently silenced after years of ART, revealing the underappreciated importance of induction assays. As such, a simple approach that would assess simultaneously the genetic intactness and the inducibility of the reservoir is still lacking. In this study, we review recent advances in the development of methods to quantify and characterize persistently infected cells, and we discuss how these findings can inform the design of future assays aimed at measuring the size of the intact and inducible HIV reservoir.

Viral rebound occurrence immediately after drug discontinuation involving neither drug resistance nor latent reservoir.

Some viruses exhibit "rebound" when the administration of antiviral drugs is discontinued. Viral rebound caused by resistance mutations or latent reservoirs has been studied mathematically. In this study, we investigated the viral rebound due to other causes. Since immunity is weaker during antiviral treatment than without the treatment, drug discontinuation may lead to an increase in the viral load. We analyzed the dynamics of the number of virus-infected cells, cytotoxic T lymphocytes, and memory cells and identified the conditions under which the viral load increased upon drug discontinuation. If drug is administered for an extended period, a viral rebound occurs when the ratio of viral growth rate in the absence to that in the presence of the antiviral drug exceeds the "rebound threshold." We analyzed how the rebound threshold depended on the patient's conditions and the type of treatment. Mathematical and numerical analyses revealed that rebound after discontinuation was more likely to occur when the drug effectively reduced viral proliferation, drug discontinuation was delayed, and the processes activating immune responses directly were stronger than those occurring indirectly through immune memory formation. We discussed additional reasons for drugs to cause viral rebound more likely.

HIV viral suppression and risk of viral rebound in patients on antiretroviral therapy: a two- year retrospective cohort study in Northern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The world is moving towards the third target of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS to ensure most people receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) are virologically suppressed. Little is known about viral suppression at an undetectable level and the risk of viral rebound phenomenon in sub-Saharan Africa which covers 67% of the global HIV burden.This study aimed to investigate the proportion of viral suppression at an undetectable level and the risk of viral rebound among people living with HIV receiving ART in northern Tanzania. METHODOLOGY: A hospital based-retrospective study recruited people living with HIV who were on ART for at least two years at Kibong'oto Infectious Disease Hospital and Mawenzi Regional Referral Hospital in Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania. Participants' two-year plasma HIV were captured at months 6, 12, and 24 of ART. Undetectable viral load was defined by plasma HIV of viral load (VL) less than 20copies/ml and viral rebound (VR) was considered to anyone having VL of more than 50 copies/ml after having history of undetectable level of the VL less than 20copies/ml. A multivariable log-binomial generalized linear model was used to determine factors for undetectable VL and viral VR. RESULTS: Among 416 PLHIV recruited, 226 (54.3%) were female. The mean (standard deviation) age was 43.7 (13.3) years. The overall proportion of undetectable VL was 68% (95% CI: 63.3-72.3) and 40.0% had viral rebound (95% CI: 34.7-45.6). Participants who had at least 3 clinic visits were 1.3 times more likely to have undetectable VL compared to those who had 1 to 2 clinic visits in a year (p = 0.029). Similarly, participants with many clinical visits ( > = 3 visits) per year were less likely to have VR compared to those with fewer visits ( = 2 visits) [adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.44-0.93]. CONCLUSION: Participants who had fewer clinic visits per year(ART refills) were less likely to achieve viral suppression and more likely to experience viral rebound. Enhanced health education and close follow-up of PLHIV on antiretroviral therapy are crucial to reinforce adherence and maintain an undetectable viral load.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 Rebound Study: A Prospective Cohort Study to Evaluate Viral and Symptom Rebound Differences in Participants Treated With Nirmatrelvir Plus Ritonavir Versus Untreated Controls.

BACKGROUND: The uptake of nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (NPR) in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been limited by concerns around the rebound phenomenon despite the scarcity of evidence around its epidemiology. The purpose of this study was to prospectively compare the epidemiology of rebound in NPR-treated and untreated participants with acute COVID-19 infection. METHODS: We designed a prospective, observational study in which participants who tested positive for COVID-19 and were clinically eligible for NPR were recruited to be evaluated for either viral or symptom clearance and rebound. Participants were assigned to the treatment or control group based on their decision to take NPR. Following initial diagnosis, both groups were provided 12 rapid antigen tests and asked to test on a regular schedule for 16 days and answer symptom surveys. Viral rebound based on test results and COVID-19 symptom rebound based on patient-reported symptoms were evaluated. RESULTS: Viral rebound incidence was 14.2% in the NPR treatment group (n = 127) and 9.3% in the control group (n = 43). Symptom rebound incidence was higher in the treatment group (18.9%) compared to controls (7.0%). There were no notable differences in viral rebound by age, gender, preexisting conditions, or major symptom groups during the acute phase or at the 1-month interval. CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary report suggests that rebound after clearance of test positivity or symptom resolution is higher than previously reported. However, notably we observed a similar rate of rebound in both the NPR treatment and control groups. Large studies with diverse participants and extended follow-up are needed to better understand the rebound phenomena.

Detecting Sources of Immune Activation and Viral Rebound in HIV Infection.

Anti-retroviral therapy (ART) generally suppresses HIV replication to undetectable levels in peripheral blood, but immune activation associated with increased morbidity and mortality is sustained during ART, and infection rebounds when treatment is interrupted. To identify drivers of immune activation and potential sources of viral rebound, we modified RNAscope in situ hybridization to visualize HIV-producing cells as a standard against which to compare the following assays of potential sources of immune activation and virus rebound following treatment interruption: (i) envelope detection by induced transcription-based sequencing (EDITS) assay; (ii) HIV-Flow; (iii) Flow-FISH assays that can scan tissues and cell suspensions to detect rare cells expressing env mRNA, gag mRNA/Gag protein and p24; and (iv) an ultrasensitive immunoassay that detects p24 in cell/tissue lysates at subfemtomolar levels. We show that the sensitivities of these assays are sufficient to detect one rare HIV-producing/env mRNA+/p24+ cell in one million uninfected cells. These high-throughput technologies provide contemporary tools to detect and characterize rare cells producing virus and viral antigens as potential sources of immune activation and viral rebound. IMPORTANCE Anti-retroviral therapy (ART) has greatly improved the quality and length of life for people living with HIV, but immune activation does not normalize during ART, and persistent immune activation has been linked to increased morbidity and mortality. We report a comparison of assays of two potential sources of immune activation during ART: rare cells producing HIV and the virus' major viral protein, p24, benchmarked on a cell model of active and latent infections and a method to visualize HIV-producing cells. We show that assays of HIV envelope mRNA (EDITS assay), gag mRNA, and p24 (Flow-FISH, HIV-Flow. and ultrasensitive p24 immunoassay) detect HIV-producing cells and p24 at sensitivities of one infected cell in a million uninfected cells, thereby providing validated tools to explore sources of immune activation during ART in the lymphoid and other tissue reservoirs.

HIV infection dynamics and viral rebound: Modeling results from humanized mice.

Despite years of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), HIV persists in infected individuals. The virus also rebounds after the cessation of cART. The sources contributing to viral persistence and rebound are not fully understood. When viral rebound occurs, what affects the time to rebound and how to delay the rebound remain unclear. In this paper, we started with the data fitting of an HIV infection model to the viral load data in treated and untreated humanized myeloid-only mice (MoM) in which macrophages serve as the target of HIV infection. By fixing the parameter values for macrophages from the MoM fitting, we fit a mathematical model including the infection of two target cell populations to the viral load data from humanized bone marrow/liver/thymus (BLT) mice, in which both CD4+ T cells and macrophages are the target of HIV infection. Data fitting suggests that the viral load decay in BLT mice under treatment has three phases. The loss of infected CD4+ T cells and macrophages is a major contributor to the first two phases of viral decay, and the last phase may be due to the latent infection of CD4+ T cells. Numerical simulations using parameter estimates from the data fitting show that the pre-ART viral load and the latent reservoir size at treatment cessation can affect viral growth rate and predict the time to viral rebound. Model simulations further reveal that early and prolonged cART can delay the viral rebound after cessation of treatment, which may have implications in the search for functional control of HIV infection.

Balancing Statistical Power and Risk in HIV Cure Clinical Trial Design.

BACKGROUND: Analytical treatment interruptions (ATI) are pauses of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cure trials. They are the gold standard in determining if interventions being tested can achieve sustained virological control in the absence of ART. However, withholding ART comes with risks and discomforts to trial participant. We used mathematical models to explore how ATI study design can be improved to maximize statistical power, while minimizing risks to participants. METHODS: Using previously observed dynamics of time to viral rebound (TVR) post-ATI, we modelled estimates for optimal sample size, frequency, and ATI duration required to detect a significant difference in the TVR between control and intervention groups. Groups were compared using a log-rank test, and analytical and stochastic techniques. RESULTS: In placebo-controlled TVR studies, 120 participants are required in each arm to detect 30% difference in frequency of viral reactivation at 80% power. There was little statistical advantage to measuring viral load more frequently than weekly, or interrupting ART beyond 5 weeks in a TVR study. CONCLUSIONS: Current TVR HIV cure studies are underpowered to detect statistically significant changes in frequency of viral reactivation. Alternate study designs can improve the statistical power of ATI trials.

Time to Viral Rebound After Interruption of Modern Antiretroviral Therapies.

BACKGROUND: Development of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remission strategies requires precise information on time to HIV rebound after treatment interruption, but there is uncertainty regarding whether modern antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens and timing of ART initiation may affect this outcome. METHODS: AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) A5345 enrolled individuals who initiated ART during chronic or early HIV infection and on suppressive ART for ≥2 years. Participants underwent carefully monitored antiretroviral interruption. ART was restarted upon 2 successive viral loads ≥1000 copies/mL. We compared participants of A5345 with participants of 6 historic ACTG treatment interruption studies. RESULTS: Thirty-three chronic-treated and 12 early-treated participants interrupted ART with evaluable time to viral rebound. Median time to viral rebound ≥1000 HIV RNA copies/mL was 22 days. Acute retroviral rebound syndrome was diagnosed in 9% of the chronic-treated and none of the early-treated individuals. All participants of the historic studies were on older protease inhibitor-based regimens, whereas 97% of A5345 participants were on integrase inhibitor-based ART. There were no differences in the timing of viral rebound comparing A5345 versus historic studies. In a combined analysis, a higher percentage of early-treated participants remained off ART at posttreatment interruption week 12 (chronic vs early: 2% vs 9%, P = .0496). One chronic-treated and one early-treated A5345 participant remained off ART for >24 weeks. All participants resuppressed after ART reinitiation. CONCLUSIONS: Early ART initiation, using either older or newer ART regimens, was associated with a significant delay in the time to HIV rebound after ART interruption, lowering the barrier for HIV remission.

Increased Proviral DNA in Circulating Cells Correlates with Plasma Viral Rebound in Simian Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Rhesus Macaques after Antiretroviral Therapy Interruption.

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reservoir is responsible for persistent viral infection, and a small number of mosaic latent cellular reservoirs promote viral rebound upon antiretroviral therapy interruption, which is the major obstacle to a cure. However, markers that determine effective therapy and viral rebound posttreatment interruption remain unclear. In this study, we comprehensively and longitudinally tracked dynamic decay of cell-associated viral RNA/DNA in systemic and lymphoid tissues in simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-infected rhesus macaques on prolonged combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) and evaluated predictors of viral rebound after treatment cessation. The results showed that suppressive ART substantially reduced plasma SIV RNA, cell-associated unspliced, and multiply spliced SIV RNA to undetectable levels, yet viral DNA remained detectable in systemic tissues and lymphoid compartments throughout cART. Intriguingly, a rapid increase of integrated proviral DNA in peripheral mononuclear cells was detected once treatment was withdrawn, accompanied by the emergence of detectable plasma viral load. Notably, the increase of peripheral proviral DNA after treatment interruption correlated with the emergence and degree of viral rebound. These findings suggest that measuring total viral DNA in SIV infection may be a relatively simple surrogate marker of reservoir size and may predict viral rebound after treatment interruption and inform treatment strategies.IMPORTANCE Viral reservoirs are involved in persistent HIV infection, and a small number of mosaic latent cellular reservoirs promote viral rebound upon analytical treatment interruption, which is the major obstacle to a cure. However, early indicators that can predict resurgence of viremia after treatment interruption may aid treatment decisions in people living with HIV. Utilizing the rhesus macaque model, we demonstrated that increased proviral DNA in peripheral cells after treatment interruption, rather than levels of proviral DNA, was a useful marker to predict the emergence and degree of viral rebound after treatment interruption, providing a rapid approach for monitoring HIV rebound and informing decisions.

Viral and Host Biomarkers of HIV Remission Post Treatment Interruption.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: HIV rebound/remission after antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruption is likely influenced by (a) the size of the inducible replication-competent HIV reservoir and (b) factors in the host environment that influence immunological pressures on this reservoir. Identifying viral and/or host biomarkers of HIV rebound after ART cessation may improve the safety of treatment interruptions and our understanding of how the viral-host interplay results in post-treatment control. Here we review the predictive and functional significance of recently suggested viral and host biomarkers of time to viral rebound and post-treatment control following ART interruption. RECENT FINDINGS: There are currently no validated viral or host biomarkers of viral rebound; however, several biomarkers have been recently suggested. A combination of viral and host factors will likely be needed to predict viral rebound and to better understand the mechanisms contributing to post-treatment control of HIV, critical steps to developing a cure for HIV infection.

HIV-1 Reservoir Persistence and Decay: Implications for Cure Strategies.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Despite suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART), a viral reservoir persists in individuals living with HIV that can reignite systemic replication should treatment be interrupted. Understanding how HIV-1 persists through effective ART is essential to develop cure strategies to induce ART-free virus remission. RECENT FINDINGS: The HIV-1 reservoir resides in a pool of CD4-expressing cells as a range of viral species, a subset of which is genetically intact. Recent studies suggest that the reservoir on ART is highly dynamic, with expansion and contraction of virus-infected cells over time. Overall, the intact proviral reservoir declines faster than defective viruses, suggesting enhanced immune clearance or cellular turnover. Upon treatment interruption, rebound viruses demonstrate escape from adaptive and innate immune responses, implicating these selective pressures in restriction of virus reactivation. Cure strategies employing immunotherapy are poised to test whether host immune pressure can be augmented to enhance reservoir suppression or clearance. Alternatively, genomic engineering approaches are being applied to directly eliminate intact viruses and shrink the replication-competent virus pool. New evidence suggests host immunity exerts selective pressure on reservoir viruses and clears HIV-1 infected cells over years on ART. Efforts to build on the detectable, but insufficient, reservoir clearance via empiric testing in clinical trials will inform our understanding of mechanisms of viral persistence and the direction of future cure strategies.

Studying patterns and predictors of HIV viral suppression using A Big Data approach: a research protocol.

BACKGROUND: Given the importance of viral suppression in ending the HIV epidemic in the US and elsewhere, an optimal predictive model of viral status can help clinicians identify those at risk of poor viral control and inform clinical improvements in HIV treatment and care. With an increasing availability of electronic health record (EHR) data and social environmental information, there is a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the dynamic pattern of viral suppression. Using a statewide cohort of people living with HIV (PLWH) in South Carolina (SC), the overall goal of the proposed research is to examine the dynamic patterns of viral suppression, develop optimal predictive models of various viral suppression indicators, and translate the models to a beta version of service-ready tools for clinical decision support. METHODS: The PLWH cohort will be identified through the SC Enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System (eHARS). The SC Office of Revenue and Fiscal Affairs (RFA) will extract longitudinal EHR clinical data of all PLWH in SC from multiple health systems, obtain data from other state agencies, and link the patient-level data with county-level data from multiple publicly available data sources. Using the deidentified data, the proposed study will consist of three operational phases: Phase 1: "Pattern Analysis" to identify the longitudinal dynamics of viral suppression using multiple viral load indicators; Phase 2: "Model Development" to determine the critical predictors of multiple viral load indicators through artificial intelligence (AI)-based modeling accounting for multilevel factors; and Phase 3: "Translational Research" to develop a multifactorial clinical decision system based on a risk prediction model to assist with the identification of the risk of viral failure or viral rebound when patients present at clinical visits. DISCUSSION: With both extensive data integration and data analytics, the proposed research will: (1) improve the understanding of the complex inter-related effects of longitudinal trajectories of HIV viral suppressions and HIV treatment history while taking into consideration multilevel factors; and (2) develop empirical public health approaches to achieve ending the HIV epidemic through translating the risk prediction model to a multifactorial decision system that enables the feasibility of AI-assisted clinical decisions.

Factors associated with viral suppression and rebound among adult HIV patients on treatment: a retrospective study in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Viral suppression remains the most desired outcome in the management of patients with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and this can be achieved by an effective Antiretroviral Therapy (ART). However, some patients who achieve viral suppression may experience viral rebound with dire consequence. We evaluated viral suppression and rebound and their associated factors among adult patients on ART in Kumasi, Ghana. METHODS: This hospital-based retrospective study was conducted at the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Ghana. We reviewed the medical records of 720 HIV patients on ART. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS Version 26.0 and GraphPad prism version 8.0. p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Proportions of patients with viral suppression and viral rebound were 76.1% and 21.0% respectively. Being diagnosed at WHO stage I [aOR = 11.40, 95% CI (3.54-36.74), p < 0.0001], having good adherence to ART [aOR = 5.09, 95% CI (2.67-9.73), p < 0.0001], taking Nevirapine-based regimen [aOR = 4.66, 95% CI (1.20-18.04), p = 0.0260] and increasing duration of treatment (p < 0.0001) were independently associated with higher odds of viral suppression. However, being diagnosed at WHO stage II (aOR = 7.39, 95% CI 2.67-20.51; p < 0.0001) and stage III (aOR = 8.62, 95% CI 3.16-23.50; p < 0.0001), having poor adherence (aOR = 175.48, 95% CI 44.30-695.07; p < 0.0001), recording baseline suppression value of 20-49 copies/mL (aOR = 6.43, 95% CI 2.72-15.17; p < 0.0001) and being treated with Zidovudine/Lamivudine/Efavirenz (aOR = 6.49, 95% CI 1.85-22.79; p = 0.004) and Zidovudine/Lamivudine/Nevirapine (aOR = 18.68, 95% CI 1.58-220.90; p = 0.02) were independently associated with higher odds of viral rebound. CONCLUSION: Approximately 76% viral suppression rate among HIV patients on ART in Kumasi falls below the WHO 95% target by the year 2030. Choice of ART combination, drug adherence, WHO clinical staging and baseline viral load are factors associated with suppression or rebound. These clinical characteristics of HIV patients must be monitored concurrently with the viral load.

Insight into treatment of HIV infection from viral dynamics models.

The odds of living a long and healthy life with HIV infection have dramatically improved with the advent of combination antiretroviral therapy. Along with the early development and clinical trials of these drugs, and new field of research emerged called viral dynamics, which uses mathematical models to interpret and predict the time-course of viral levels during infection and how they are altered by treatment. In this review, we summarize the contributions that virus dynamics models have made to understanding the pathophysiology of infection and to designing effective therapies. This includes studies of the multiphasic decay of viral load when antiretroviral therapy is given, the evolution of drug resistance, the long-term persistence latently infected cells, and the rebound of viremia when drugs are stopped. We additionally discuss new work applying viral dynamics models to new classes of investigational treatment for HIV, including latency-reversing agents and immunotherapy.

Early Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy Following In Utero HIV Infection Is Associated With Low Viral Reservoirs but Other Factors Determine Viral Rebound.

BACKGROUND: Early HIV diagnosis allows combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation in the first days of life following in utero (IU) infection. The impact of early cART initiation on infant viral reservoir size in the setting of high-frequency cART nonadherence is unknown. METHODS: Peripheral blood total HIV DNA from 164 early treated (day 0-21 of life) IU HIV-infected South African infants was measured using droplet digital PCR at birth and following suppressive cART. We evaluated the impact of cART initiation timing on HIV reservoir size and decay, and on the risk of subsequent plasma viremia in cART-suppressed infants. RESULTS: Baseline HIV DNA (median 2.8 log10 copies/million peripheral blood mononuclear cells, range 0.7-4.8) did not correlate with age at cART initiation (0-21 days) but instead with maternal antenatal cART use. In 98 infants with plasma viral suppression on cART, HIV DNA half-life was 28 days. However, the probability of maintenance of plasma aviremia was low (0.46 at 12 months) and not influenced by HIV DNA load. Unexpectedly, longer time to viral suppression was associated with protection against subsequent viral rebound. CONCLUSIONS: With effective prophylaxis against mother-to-child transmission, cART initiation timing in the first 3 weeks of life is not critical to reservoir size.

Virologic and Immunologic Features of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Control Post-ART Interruption in Rhesus Macaques.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) cannot eradicate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and a rapid rebound of virus replication follows analytical treatment interruption (ATI) in the vast majority of HIV-infected individuals. Sustained control of HIV replication without ART has been documented in a subset of individuals, defined as posttreatment controllers (PTCs). The key determinants of post-ART viral control remain largely unclear. Here, we identified 7 SIVmac239-infected rhesus macaques (RMs), defined as PTCs, who started ART 8 weeks postinfection, continued ART for >7 months, and controlled plasma viremia at <104 copies/ml for up to 8 months after ATI and <200 copies/ml at the latest time point. We characterized immunologic and virologic features associated with post-ART SIV control in blood, lymph node (LN), and colorectal (RB) biopsy samples compared to 15 noncontroller (NC) RMs. Before ART initiation, PTCs had higher CD4 T cell counts, lower plasma viremia, and SIV-DNA content in blood and LN compared to NCs, but had similar CD8 T cell function. While levels of intestinal CD4 T cells were similar, PTCs had higher frequencies of Th17 cells. On ART, PTCs had significantly lower levels of residual plasma viremia and SIV-DNA content in blood and tissues. After ATI, SIV-DNA content rapidly increased in NCs, while it remained stable or even decreased in PTCs. Finally, PTCs showed immunologic benefits of viral control after ATI, including higher CD4 T cell levels and reduced immune activation. Overall, lower plasma viremia, reduced cell-associated SIV-DNA, and preserved Th17 homeostasis, including at pre-ART, are the main features associated with sustained viral control after ATI in SIV-infected RMs.IMPORTANCE While effective, antiretroviral therapy is not a cure for HIV infection. Therefore, there is great interest in achieving viral remission in the absence of antiretroviral therapy. Posttreatment controllers represent a small subset of individuals who are able to control HIV after cessation of antiretroviral therapy, but characteristics associated with these individuals have been largely limited to peripheral blood analysis. Here, we identified 7 SIV-infected rhesus macaques that mirrored the human posttreatment controller phenotype and performed immunologic and virologic analysis of blood, lymph node, and colorectal biopsy samples to further understand the characteristics that distinguish them from noncontrollers. Lower viral burden and preservation of immune homeostasis, including intestinal Th17 cells, both before and after ART, were shown to be two major factors associated with the ability to achieve posttreatment control. Overall, these results move the field further toward understanding of important characteristics of viral control in the absence of antiretroviral therapy.

A flexible nonlinear mixed effects model for HIV viral load rebound after treatment interruption.

Characterization of HIV viral rebound after the discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy is central to HIV cure research. We propose a parametric nonlinear mixed effects model for the viral rebound trajectory, which often has a rapid rise to a peak value followed by a decrease to a viral load set point. We choose a flexible functional form that captures the shapes of viral rebound trajectories and can also provide biological insights regarding the rebound process. Each parameter can incorporate a random effect to allow for variation in parameters across individuals. Key features of viral rebound trajectories such as viral set points are represented by the parameters in the model, which facilitates assessment of intervention effects and identification of important pretreatment interruption predictors for these features. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization (StEM) algorithm to incorporate HIV-1 RNA values that are below the lower limit of assay quantification. We evaluate the performance of our model in simulation studies and apply the proposed model to longitudinal HIV-1 viral load data from five AIDS Clinical Trials Group treatment interruption studies.

Modeling HIV Dynamics Under Combination Therapy with Inducers and Antibodies.

A mathematical model is proposed to simulate the "shock-kill" strategy where broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are injected with a combination of HIV latency activators to reduce persistent HIV reservoirs. The basic reproductive ratio of virus is computed to extrapolate how the combinational therapy of inducers and antibodies affects the persistence of HIV infection. Numerical simulations demonstrate that a proper combination of inducers and bNAbs can drive the basic reproductive ratio below unity. Interestingly, it is found that a longer dosage interval leads to the higher HIV survival opportunity and a smaller dosage interval is preferred, which is fundamental to design an optimal therapeutic scheme. Further simulations reveal the conditions under which the joint therapy of inducer and antibodies induces a large extension of viral rebound time, which highlights the mechanism of delayed viral rebound from the experiment (Halper-Stromberg et al. in Cell 158:989-999, 2014). Optimal time for cessation of treatment is also analyzed to aid practical applications.

Post-treatment control of HIV infection.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is not a cure. However, recent studies suggest that ART, initiated early during primary infection, may induce post-treatment control (PTC) of HIV infection with HIV RNA maintained at <50 copies per mL. We investigate the hypothesis that ART initiated early during primary infection permits PTC by limiting the size of the latent reservoir, which, if small enough at treatment termination, may allow the adaptive immune response to prevent viral rebound (VR) and control infection. We use a mathematical model of within host HIV dynamics to capture interactions among target cells, productively infected cells, latently infected cells, virus, and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). Analysis of our model reveals a range in CTL response strengths where a patient may show either VR or PTC, depending on the size of the latent reservoir at treatment termination. Below this range, patients will always rebound, whereas above this range, patients are predicted to behave like elite controllers. Using data on latent reservoir sizes in patients treated during primary infection, we also predict population-level VR times for noncontrollers consistent with observations.

Inhibition of Heat Shock Protein 90 Prevents HIV Rebound.

HIV evades eradication because transcriptionally dormant proviral genomes persist in long-lived reservoirs of resting CD4(+) T cells and myeloid cells, which are the source of viral rebound after cessation of antiretroviral therapy. Dormant HIV genomes readily produce infectious virus upon cellular activation because host transcription factors activated specifically by cell stress and heat shock mediate full-length HIV transcription. The molecular chaperone heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) is overexpressed during heat shock and activates inducible cellular transcription factors. Here we show that heat shock accelerates HIV transcription through induction of Hsp90 activity, which activates essential HIV-specific cellular transcription factors (NF-κB, NFAT, and STAT5), and that inhibition of Hsp90 greatly reduces gene expression mediated by these factors. More importantly, we show that Hsp90 controls virus transcription in vivo by specific Hsp90 inhibitors in clinical development, tanespimycin (17-(allylamino)-17-demethoxygeldanamycin) and AUY922, which durably prevented viral rebound in HIV-infected humanized NOD scid IL-2Rγ(-/-) bone marrow-liver-thymus mice up to 11 weeks after treatment cessation. Despite the absence of rebound viremia, we were able to recover infectious HIV from PBMC with heat shock. Replication-competent virus was detected in spleen cells from these nonviremic Hsp90 inhibitor-treated mice, indicating the presence of a tissue reservoir of persistent infection. Our novel findings provide in vivo evidence that inhibition of Hsp90 activity prevents HIV gene expression in replication-competent cellular reservoirs that would typically cause rebound in plasma viremia after antiretroviral therapy cessation. Alternating or supplementing Hsp90 inhibitors with current antiretroviral therapy regimens could conceivably suppress rebound viremia from persistent HIV reservoirs.