Voter emotional responses and voting behaviour in the 2020 US presidential election.

Political polarisation in the United States offers opportunities to explore how beliefs about candidates - that they could save or destroy American society - impact people's thoughts, feelings, and behaviour. Participants forecast their future emotional responses to the contentious 2020 U.S. presidential election, and reported their actual responses after the election outcome. Stronger beliefs about candidates were associated with forecasts of greater emotion in response to the election, but the strength of this relationship differed based on candidate preference. Trump supporters' forecast happiness more strongly related to beliefs that their candidate would save society than for Biden supporters. Biden supporters' forecast anger and fear were more strongly related to beliefs that Trump would destroy society than vice versa. These forecasts mattered: predictions of lower happiness and greater anger if the non-preferred candidate won predicted voting, with Biden supporters voting more than Trump supporters. Generally, participants forecast more emotion than they experienced, but beliefs altered this tendency. Stronger beliefs predicted experiencing more happiness or more anger and fear about the election outcome than had been forecast. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms through which political polarisation and rhetoric can influence voting behaviour.

Sociability Alcohol Expectancies Shape Predictions of Drinking Behavior and Anxiety in a Novel Affective Forecasting Task.

Background: Existing work proposes that people with higher social anxiety symptoms and sociability alcohol expectancies believe alcohol can lower their anxiety. However, studies have primarily analyzed retrospective reports, not anticipatory motives. Since predictions of future emotion (i.e., affective forecasts) strongly influence behavior, it is critical to understand how people predict alcohol will influence their anxiety. Additionally, intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is related to the use of alcohol as a coping tool, but there is a dearth of work testing whether IU influences alcohol-related forecasts. Objectives: Utilizing a novel affective forecasting task, we tested the prediction that social anxiety symptoms, sociability alcohol expectancies, and IU would relate to predictions about alcohol use. In an initial study and preregistered replication, participants imagined themselves in stressful social scenarios and forecasted how anxious they would feel when drinking and when sober. In the replication, participants also forecasted whether they would drink in the imagined scenarios. Results: Contrary to hypotheses, social anxiety symptoms and IU did not significantly predict higher forecasted anxiety across studies, nor did they predict forecasted drinking. Exploratory analyses showed that participants with higher sociability alcohol expectancies forecasted being more likely to drink, and forecasted feeling less anxious when drinking (versus being sober). Even after statistically controlling for social anxiety, the effect of sociability expectancies remained significant in predicting forecasted anxiety and forecasted drinking. Conclusions: Clinicians could consider specifically targeting sociability expectancies for alcohol use difficulties, and future research should continue utilizing affective forecasting paradigms to test links between social anxiety, alcohol expectancies, and alcohol-use problems.

Emotions and Narrative Reappraisal Strategies of Users of Breast Cancer Screening: Reconstructing the Past, Passing Through the Present, and Predicting Emotions.

Emotional forecasting, meaning how a person anticipates feeling as a consequence of their choices, drives healthcare decision-making. Research, however, suggests that people often do not fully anticipate or otherwise grasp the future emotional impacts of their decisions. Emotional reappraisal strategies, such as putting emotions into words and sharing emotions with others, may mitigate potential undesirable effects of emotions on decision-making. The use of such strategies is important for consequential decisions, such as obtaining timely mammography screening for breast cancer, whereby earlier diagnosis may impact the success of treatment. In this study, we explored the use of emotional reappraisal strategies for decision-making regarding breast cancer screening attendance among women aged 50-69 years. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews following mammography with a reflexive thematic methodological approach employed for analysis. Results shed light on how participants' emotional response narratives were reconstructed before the mammography, felt during the mammography, and forecasted while awaiting the results. Future research should consider how individuals experience and manage their emotions as they access breast screening services.

Affective forecasting in Parkinson's disease.

OBJECTIVES: While emotional responses experienced in-the-moment appear to remain intact in Parkinson's disease (PD), no study has tested whether this extends to the prediction of future emotional responses. The present study aimed to provide the first assessment of affective forecasting capacity in this cohort. METHODS: A positively and negatively valenced affective forecasting task and broader clinical battery were completed by a PD group (ns = 28 and 37, respectively) and a demographically matched neurotypical control group (ns = 38 and 39, respectively). RESULTS: No group differences emerged on the two tasks, with the two groups underestimating their level of happiness and overestimating their level of negative affect to a similar degree. Affective forecasting error scores were unrelated to clinical characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Given that affective forecasting relies on self-projection into the future, a skill shown to often be disrupted in this cohort, impairments were expected. However, this study provides initial evidence that this may not be the case. These findings are potentially important given that how we think about and envisage the future affectively is a major determinant of goal-directed behavior. Further work is now needed to establish whether these findings are robust and generalize to other types of affective stimuli.

Patient, caregiver, and oncologist predictions of quality of life in advanced cancer: Accuracy and associations with end-of-life care and caregiver bereavement.

BACKGROUND: Informed treatment decision-making necessitates accurate prognostication, including predictions about quality of life. AIMS: We examined whether oncologists, patients with advanced cancer, and caregivers accurately predict patients' future quality of life and whether these predictions are prospectively associated with end-of-life care and bereavement. MATERIALS & METHODS: We conducted secondary analyses of clinical trial data. Patients with advanced cancer (n = 156), caregivers (n = 156), and oncologists (n = 38) predicted patient quality of life 3 months into the future. Patients subsequently rated their quality of life 3 months later. Medical record data documented chemotherapy and emergency department (ED)/inpatient visits in the 30 days before death (n = 79 decedents). Caregivers self-reported on depression, anxiety, grief, purpose, and regret 7-months post-mortem. In mixed-effects models, patient, caregiver, and oncologist quality-of-life predictions at study entry were used to predict end-of-life care and caregiver outcomes, controlling for patients' quality of life at 3-month follow-up, demographic and clinical characteristics, and nesting within oncologists. RESULTS: Caregivers (P < 0.0001) and oncologists (P = 0.001) predicted lower quality of life than what patients actually experienced. Among decedents, 24.0% received chemotherapy and 54.5% had an ED/inpatient visit. When caregivers' predictions were more negative, patients were less likely to receive chemotherapy (P = 0.028) or have an ED/inpatient visit (P = 0.033), and caregivers reported worse depression (P = 0.002), anxiety (P = 0.019), and grief (P = 0.028) and less purpose in life (P < 0.001) 7-months post-mortem. CONCLUSION: When caregivers have more negative expectations about patients' quality of life, patients receive less intensive end-of-life care, and caregivers report worse bereavement outcomes.

How Will You Feel on Valentine's Day? Affective Forecasting and Recall Biases as a Function of Anxiety, Depression, and Borderline Personality Disorder Features.

Introduction: The prediction of affective experiences, also known as affective forecasting, is an integral component of individuals' decision-making processes. Yet, research consistently demonstrates that affective forecasts (AF) and recollections (AR) are generally inaccurate. Recent research has demonstrated distinct patterns of AF/R bias related to psychopathology. The present study examined the relationship between AF/R and features of Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD), anxiety, and depression using Valentine's Day as the target event. Methods: Undergraduate students (N=263; 33% white; 63% female; Mage=19.08) predicted their affective states a week before, and then reported their actual affective states on Valentine's Day and the two days after, and recalled Valentine's Day affect two days later. Results: Results indicate that higher BPD symptomatology predicted a significant overestimation of negative affect (B=.17, p=.02), even after controlling for anxiety and depression. Additionally, individuals' levels of depressive, anxious, and BPD symptomatology were significant predictors of AF of positive affect when entered into regression analyses separately, however when entered together, only depressive symptoms remained significant. Specifically, higher depressive symptoms predicted a significant underestimation of positive affect (B=-.21, p=.01). Discussion: Results were in line with prior research indicating that unique patterns of AF biases are associated with symptoms of psychopathology. However, results failed to support prior research linking AR biases to symptoms of psychopathology. Implications for future studies of affective biases and psychopathology more generally are discussed.

Integrating Empathy and Interpersonal Emotion Regulation.

When individuals experience empathy, they often seek to bolster others' well-being. But what do empathizers want others to feel? Though psychologists have studied empathy and prosociality for decades, this question has yet to be clearly addressed. This is because virtually all existing research focuses on cases in which improving others' well-being also comprises heightening their positive affect or decreasing their negative affect and helping them reach their own emotional goals. In this review, I argue that real-life empathic goals encompass a broader range-including sometimes worsening targets' affect or contravening their wishes in order to improve their well-being-that can be productively integrated into the framework of interpersonal emotion regulation (IER). I review the empathic IER spectrum in a number of contexts, including close relationships, professional caregiving, and group-based emotions. Integrating empathy and IER provides a synthetic and generative way to ask new questions about how social emotions produce prosocial actions.

Compersion: When Jealousy-Inducing Situations Don't (Just) Induce Jealousy.

Emotional reactions to a partner's extradyadic romantic interests are assumed to be negative and characterized by jealousy, an emotional state that arises over a perceived threat to one's relationship. Yet, reactions may also be positive, and involve compersion, or taking joy in one's partner's pleasure in other sexual and relational encounters. Although some have argued that compersion is the opposite of jealousy, research suggests that compersion and jealousy may not be opposing constructs, despite being treated this way in both theoretical and empirical research. Using a convenience sample of polyamorous (N = 3530) and monogamous (N = 1358) individuals, we draw on theories of jealousy, emotional ambivalence, and emotional forecasting to examine people's anticipated affective responses to hypothetical situations involving a partner's extradyadic relations and assess whether experience with having a partner engage in extradyadic relations was associated with anticipating less jealousy and more compersion. Results suggest that people in polyamorous relationships report less jealousy and more compersion with their partners, and that personal experience involving a partner's extradyadic romantic interests predicted more compersion and less jealousy, with experience predicting greater increases in compersion among monogamous than polyamorous participants. Finally, while anticipated compersion was associated with greater relationship satisfaction, neither jealousy nor ambivalence was associated with relationship satisfaction. These results further demonstrate that individuals can experience both positive and negative reactions to a partner's extradyadic relations, both based on actual experience and projection of responses to future events, and that real-life experiences are important in anticipating these emotions.

Against autonomy: How proposed solutions to the problems of living wills forgot its underlying principle.

Significant criticisms have been raised regarding the ethical and psychological basis of living wills. Various solutions to address these criticisms have been advanced, such as the use of surrogate decision makers alone or data science-driven algorithms. These proposals share a fundamental weakness: they focus on resolving the problems of living wills, and, in the process, lose sight of the underlying ethical principle of advance care planning, autonomy. By suggesting that the same sweeping solutions, without opportunities for choice, be applied to all, individual patients are treated as population-level groups-as a theoretical patient who represents a population, not the specific patient crafting his or her individualized future care plans. Instead, advance care planning can be improved through a multimodal approach that both mitigates cognitive biases and allows for customization of the decision-making process by allowing for the incorporation of a variety of methods of advance care planning.

When fairness matters less than we expect.

Do those who allocate resources know how much fairness will matter to those who receive them? Across seven studies, allocators used either a fair or unfair procedure to determine which of two receivers would receive the most money. Allocators consistently overestimated the impact that the fairness of the allocation procedure would have on the happiness of receivers (studies 1-3). This happened because the differential fairness of allocation procedures is more salient before an allocation is made than it is afterward (studies 4 and 5). Contrary to allocators' predictions, the average receiver was happier when allocated more money by an unfair procedure than when allocated less money by a fair procedure (studies 6 and 7). These studies suggest that when allocators are unable to overcome their own preallocation perspectives and adopt the receivers' postallocation perspectives, they may allocate resources in ways that do not maximize the net happiness of receivers.

How badly will I feel if you don't like me?: Social anxiety and predictions of future affect.

The current study investigated whether high and low socially anxious individuals would show differences in affective forecasting accuracy (i.e., the prediction of emotional states in response to future events) to positive versus negative social evaluation. High (n=94) and low (n=98) socially anxious participants gave a speech and were randomly assigned to receive a positive or negative evaluation. For affective forecasts made proximally (moments before the speech), those low in social anxiety overpredicted their affect to a greater extent to a negative evaluation versus a positive evaluation. In contrast, those high in social anxiety overpredicted their affect to positive and negative evaluations comparably, and failed to adjust their prediction for a future hypothetical negative evaluation - in effect, not learning from their prior forecasting error. Results suggest that affective forecasting biases deserve further study as a maintaining factor for social anxiety symptoms.

Affective forecasting accuracy in obsessive compulsive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Research indicates that people suffering from obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) possess several cognitive biases, including a tendency to over-estimate threat and avoid risk. Studies have suggested that people with OCD not only over-estimate the severity of negative events, but also under-estimate their ability to cope with such occurrences. What is less clear is if they also miscalculate the extent to which they will be emotionally impacted by a given experience. AIMS: The aim of the current study was twofold. First, we examined if people with OCD are especially poor at predicting their emotional responses to future events (i.e. affective forecasting). Second, we analysed the relationship between affective forecasting accuracy and risk assessment across a broad domain of behaviours. METHOD: Forty-one OCD, 42 non-anxious, and 40 socially anxious subjects completed an affective forecasting task and a self-report measure of risk-taking. RESULTS: Findings revealed that affective forecasting accuracy did not differ among the groups. In addition, there was little evidence that affective forecasting errors are related to how people assess risk in a variety of situations. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study suggest that affective forecasting is unlikely to contribute to the phenomenology of OCD or social anxiety disorder. However, that people over-estimate the hedonic impact of negative events might have interesting implications for the treatment of OCD and other disorders treated with exposure therapy.

The Novelty Penalty.

People often tell each other stories about their past experiences. But do they tell the right ones? Speakers and listeners predicted that listeners would enjoy hearing novel stories (i.e., stories about experiences the listeners had never had) more than familiar stories (i.e., stories about experiences the listeners had already had). In fact, listeners enjoyed hearing familiar stories much more than novel ones (Studies 1 and 2). This did not happen because the familiar and novel stories differed in their content or delivery (Study 3). Rather, it happened because human speech is riddled with informational gaps, and familiar stories allow listeners to use their own knowledge to fill in those gaps (Study 4). We discuss reasons why novel stories are more difficult to tell, and why familiar stories are more enjoyable to hear, than either speakers or listeners expect.

Dying Is Unexpectedly Positive.

In people's imagination, dying seems dreadful; however, these perceptions may not reflect reality. In two studies, we compared the affective experience of people facing imminent death with that of people imagining imminent death. Study 1 revealed that blog posts of near-death patients with cancer and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were more positive and less negative than the simulated blog posts of nonpatients-and also that the patients' blog posts became more positive as death neared. Study 2 revealed that the last words of death-row inmates were more positive and less negative than the simulated last words of noninmates-and also that these last words were less negative than poetry written by death-row inmates. Together, these results suggest that the experience of dying-even because of terminal illness or execution-may be more pleasant than one imagines.

Affective forecasting bias in preschool children.

Adults are capable of predicting their emotional reactions to possible future events. Nevertheless, they systematically overestimate the intensity of their future emotional reactions relative to how they feel when these events actually occur. The developmental origin of this "intensity bias" has not yet been examined. Two studies were conducted to test the intensity bias in preschool children. In the first study, 5-year-olds (N=30) predicted how they would feel if they won or lost various games. Comparisons with subsequent self-reported feelings indicated that participants overestimated how sad they would feel to lose the games but did not overestimate their happiness from winning. The second study replicated this effect in another sample of 5-year-olds (n=34) and also found evidence of an intensity bias in 4-year-olds (n=30). These findings provide the first evidence of a negative intensity bias in affective forecasting among young children.

Looking into the crystal ball of our emotional lives: emotion regulation and the overestimation of future guilt and shame.

In the present study, we examined the impact of emotion regulation on the intensity bias in guilt and shame. Fifty-two undergraduates either forecasted their emotions and emotion regulation following a guilt- and shame-eliciting situation or reported their actual experienced emotions and employed emotion regulation. Results showed a clear intensity bias, that is, forecasters predicted to experience more guilt and shame than experiencers actually experienced. Furthermore, results showed that forecasters predicted to employ less down-regulating emotion regulation (i.e. less acceptance) and more up-regulating emotion regulation (i.e. more rumination) than experiencers actually employed. Moreover, results showed that the intensity differences between forecasted and experienced guilt and shame could be explained (i.e. were mediated) by the differences between forecasted and actually employed emotion regulation (i.e. acceptance and rumination). These findings provide support for the hypothesis that the intensity bias can-at least in part-be explained by the misprediction of future emotion regulation.

The Pandora Effect: The Power and Peril of Curiosity.

Curiosity-the desire for information-underlies many human activities, from reading celebrity gossip to developing nuclear science. Curiosity is well recognized as a human blessing. Is it also a human curse? Tales about such things as Pandora's box suggest that it is, but scientific evidence is lacking. In four controlled experiments, we demonstrated that curiosity could lead humans to expose themselves to aversive stimuli (even electric shocks) for no apparent benefits. The research suggests that humans possess an inherent desire, independent of consequentialist considerations, to resolve uncertainty; when facing something uncertain and feeling curious, they will act to resolve the uncertainty even if they expect negative consequences. This research reveals the potential perverse side of curiosity, and is particularly relevant to the current epoch, the epoch of information, and to the scientific community, a community with high curiosity.

Affective forecasting in an orangutan: predicting the hedonic outcome of novel juice mixes.

Affective forecasting is an ability that allows the prediction of the hedonic outcome of never-before experienced situations, by mentally recombining elements of prior experiences into possible scenarios, and pre-experiencing what these might feel like. It has been hypothesised that this ability is uniquely human. For example, given prior experience with the ingredients, but in the absence of direct experience with the mixture, only humans are said to be able to predict that lemonade tastes better with sugar than without it. Non-human animals, on the other hand, are claimed to be confined to predicting-exclusively and inflexibly-the outcome of previously experienced situations. Relying on gustatory stimuli, we devised a non-verbal method for assessing affective forecasting and tested comparatively one Sumatran orangutan and ten human participants. Administered as binary choices, the test required the participants to mentally construct novel juice blends from familiar ingredients and to make hedonic predictions concerning the ensuing mixes. The orangutan's performance was within the range of that shown by the humans. Both species made consistent choices that reflected independently measured taste preferences for the stimuli. Statistical models fitted to the data confirmed the predictive accuracy of such a relationship. The orangutan, just like humans, thus seems to have been able to make hedonic predictions concerning never-before experienced events.

Realistic affective forecasting: The role of personality.

Affective forecasting often drives decision-making. Although affective forecasting research has often focused on identifying sources of error at the event level, the present investigation draws upon the "realistic paradigm" in seeking to identify factors that similarly influence predicted and actual emotions, explaining their concordance across individuals. We hypothesised that the personality traits neuroticism and extraversion would account for variation in both predicted and actual emotional reactions to a wide array of stimuli and events (football games, an election, Valentine's Day, birthdays, happy/sad film clips, and an intrusive interview). As hypothesised, individuals who were more introverted and neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more unpleasant emotional reactions, and those who were more extraverted and less neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more pleasant emotional reactions. Personality explained 30% of the concordance between predicted and actual emotional reactions. Findings suggest three purported personality processes implicated in affective forecasting, highlight the importance of individual-differences research in this domain, and call for more research on realistic affective forecasts.

Using Emotion as Information in Future-Oriented Cognition: Individual Differences in the Context of State Negative Affect.

Predictions about the future are susceptible to mood-congruent influences of emotional state. However, recent work suggests individuals also differ in the degree to which they incorporate emotion into cognition. This study examined the role of such individual differences in the context of state negative emotion. We examined whether trait tendencies to use negative or positive emotion as information affect individuals' predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how events will feel (affective forecasting), and whether trait influences depend on emotional state. Participants (N=119) reported on tendencies to use emotion as information ("following feelings"), underwent an emotion induction (negative versus neutral), and made likelihood estimates and affective forecasts for future events. Views of the future were predicted by both emotional state and individual differences in following feelings. Whereas following negative feelings affected most future-oriented cognition across emotional states, following positive feelings specifically buffered individuals' views of the future in the negative emotion condition, and specifically for positive future events, a category of future-event prediction especially important in psychological health. Individual differences may confer predisposition toward optimistic or pessimistic expectations of the future in the context of acute negative emotion, with implications for adaptive and maladaptive functioning.