Decline of coronary heart disease mortality is strongly effected by changing patterns of underlying causes of death: an analysis of mortality data from 27 countries of the WHO European region 2000 and 2013.

Mortality rates for coronary heart disease (CHD) experience a longstanding decline, attributed to progress in prevention, diagnostics and therapy. However, CHD mortality rates vary between countries. To estimate whether national patterns of causes of death impact CHD mortality, data from the WHO "European detailed mortality database" for 2000 and 2013 for populations aged ≥ 80 years was analyzed. We extracted mortality rates for total mortality, cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, dementia and ill-defined causes. We calculated proportions of selected causes of death among all deaths, and proportions of selected cardiovascular causes among cardiovascular deaths. CHD mortality rates were recalculated after re-coding ill-defined causes of death. Association between CHD mortality rates and proportions of CHD deaths was estimated by population-weighted linear regression. National patterns of causes of death were divers. In 2000, CHD was assigned as cause of death in 13-53% of all cardiovascular deaths. Until 2013, this proportion changed between - 65% (Czech Republic) and + 57% (Georgia). Dementia was increasingly assigned as underlying cause of death in Western Europe, but rarely in eastern European countries. Ill-defined causes accounted for between < 1% and 53% of all cardiovascular deaths. CHD mortality rates were closely linked to a countries' proportion of cardiovascular deaths assigned to CHD (R2 = 0.95 for 2000 and 0.99 for 2013). We show that CHD mortality is considerably influenced by national particularities in certifying death. Changes in CHD mortality rates reflect changes in certifying competing underlying causes of death. This must be accounted for when discussing reasons for the CHD mortality decline.

Association of Hemoglobin Concentration With Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in a Cohort of Postmenopausal Women.

Anemia and low and high levels of hemoglobin have been associated with increased mortality and morbidity. However, most studies have measured hemoglobin at only 1 time point, and few studies have considered possible reverse causation. We used data from the Women's Health Initiative, in which baseline hemoglobin was measured in 160,081 postmenopausal women and year 3 hemoglobin was measured in 75,658 participants, to examine the associations of hemoglobin concentration with total mortality, coronary heart disease mortality, and cancer mortality. Women were enrolled from 1993 to 1998 and followed for a median of 16 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative mortality hazards associated with deciles of baseline hemoglobin and the mean of baseline + year 3 hemoglobin. Both low and high deciles of baseline hemoglobin were positively associated with all 3 outcomes in the total cohort. In analyses restricted to women with 2 measurements, a low mean hemoglobin level was robustly and positively associated with all 3 outcomes, after exclusion of the early years of follow-up. High mean hemoglobin was also associated with increased risk of total mortality, whereas associations with heart disease mortality and cancer mortality were weaker and inconsistent. Our results provide evidence that low and high levels of hemoglobin are associated with increased risk of mortality in otherwise healthy women.

Pessimism and risk of death from coronary heart disease among middle-aged and older Finns: an eleven-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) remains at quite notable levels. Research on the risk factors and the treatment of CHD has focused on physiological factors, but there is an increasing amount of evidence connecting mental health and personality traits to CHD, too. The data concerning the connection of CHD and dispositional optimism and pessimism as personality traits is relatively scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate the connection between optimism, pessimism, and CHD mortality. METHODS: This was an 11-year prospective cohort study on a regional sample of three cohorts, aged 52-56, 62-66, and 72-76 years at baseline (N = 2815). The levels of dispositional optimism and pessimism of the study subjects were determined at baseline using a revised version of the Life Orientation Test (LOT-R). Eleven years later, those results and follow-up data about CHD as a cause of death were used to calculate odds. Adjustments were made for cardiovascular disease risk. RESULTS: Those who died because of CHD were significantly more pessimistic at baseline than the others. This finding applies to both men and women. Among the study subjects in the highest quartile of pessimism, the adjusted risk of death caused by CHD was approximately 2.2-fold (OR 2.17, 95 % CI 1.21-3.89) compared to the subjects in the lowest quartile. Optimism did not seem to have any connection with the risk of CHD-induced mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Pessimism seems to be a substantial risk factor for death from CHD. As an easily measured variable, it might be a very useful tool together with the other known risk factors to determine the risk of CHD-induced mortality.

Are depressive symptoms associated with cardiovascular mortality among older Chinese: a cohort study of 64,000 people in Hong Kong?

BACKGROUND: Depression was positively associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) or mortality in previous studies. However, whether the observed association can be explained by health status is not clear. OBJECTIVES: To study the association of depressive symptoms with CVD, stroke, and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in older Chinese in Hong Kong, and whether the associations varied by gender or health status. DESIGN: Prospective population-based study. SETTING: Elderly Health Centers. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 62,839 people age 65 or older (21,473 men and 41,366 women) enrolled during July 1998 to December 2001 at all 18 Elderly Health Centers of the Department of Health of Hong Kong. MEASUREMENTS: Fifteen-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) was used and presence of depressive symptoms was defined by GDS score 8 or more. The cohort was followed up for mortality till March 31, 2009. RESULTS: Depressive symptoms were only associated with CHD mortality in men (hazard ratio [HR] 1.41, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.84; p for gender interaction = 0.02) adjusted for age, education, monthly expenditure, smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, body mass index, health status, and self-rated health. GDS score was associated with stroke mortality (similarly adjusted HR 1.02 per score, 95% CI: 1.00-1.04) in all subjects (adjusted also for gender), and CHD mortality (1.04 [1.01-1.07]) in men. Health status attenuated but did not modify any associations. CONCLUSION: Depressive symptoms were independently associated with higher CHD mortality in older Chinese men, and with higher stroke mortality in both genders. However, attenuation by health status, and lack of consistency by gender indicate that these associations could be noncausal and further studies by treatment trials and Mendelian randomization are needed.

Association of Beta-2-Microglobulin With Coronary Heart Disease and All-Cause Mortality in the United States General Population.

Few prospective studies explored the association of beta-2-microglobulin (B2M) with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. The primary objective of this study was to examine the association of serum B2M with CHD and all-cause mortality. This is a prospective cohort study of a nationally representative sample of 4,885 adults, aged 40-85 years, who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) from 1988 to 1994. The relationships between B2M and CHD and all-cause mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. During a median follow-up of 15.5 years, 845 CHD and 3,388 all-cause deaths occurred among 4,885 participants [2,568 women (55.7%); mean (S.D.) age, 66.4 (12.5) years], respectively. In the unadjusted model, B2M concentration was strongly linearly associated with CHD and all-cause mortality (p-trend < 0.001). After adjusting multivariable factors, a positive linear association between B2M and all-cause mortality was still observed (H.R. for Q4 vs. Q1 5.90; 95% CI: 5.31-6.57; p-trend < 0.001). In the multivariable adjustment model, B2M was significantly associated with an increased risk of CHD mortality (H.R. for Q4 vs. Q1 2.72; 95% CI: 2.07-3.57; p-trend < 0.001). In the stratified analyses, the associations of B2M with CHD and all-cause mortality varied by risk factors, such as age, smoking status, and history of hypertension. The findings suggest a significant relationship between the higher serum B2M concentration and increased risk for CHD and all-cause mortality. Further large-scale follow-up studies are also needed to validate this association.

Rapid Drop in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Czech Male Population-What Was Actually behind It?

The high mortality of coronary heart disease (CHD) among Czech men-one of the highest worldwide-began to decline in 1991 soon after the abolition of government subsidies to all foodstuffs rich in animal fat. As participants in the WHO MONICA Project, we were able to analyze the CHD risk factors just before and after this major economic change. We had previously documented that the originally subsidized prices decreased animal fat consumption and consequently non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in the population. By the early 1990s, no progress had been made in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, statins were unavailable as was not the currently more effective antihypertensive therapy. Our recent research proved a close relationship between cholesterolemia and proinflammatory macrophages in adipose tissue and accelerated macrophage polarization with increased palmitate and palmitoleate contents in cell membrane phospholipids. By contrast, the proportion of proinflammatory macrophages decreases with increasing presence of n-3 fatty acids in the cell membrane. The combination of non-HDL cholesterol drop and a decreased proportion of proinflammatory macrophages due to replacement of alimentary fat decreased CHD mortality immediately.

Associations of Serum Nonesterified Fatty Acids With Coronary Heart Disease Mortality and Nonfatal Myocardial Infarction: The CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) Cohort.

Background Significant associations have been reported between serum total nonesterified fatty acid (NEFA) concentrations and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and incident nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) in some prospective cohort studies. Little is known about whether individual or subclasses (saturated, polyunsaturated [n-6 and n-3], and trans fatty acids) of serum NEFAs relate to CHD mortality and nonfatal MI. Methods and Results CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) participants (N=1681) who had no history of MI, angina, or revascularization or were free of MI at baseline (1996-1997) were included. NEFAs were quantified using gas chromatography. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate associations of 5 subclasses and individual NEFAs with CHD composite (CHD mortality and nonfatal MI), CHD mortality, and incident nonfatal MI. During a median follow-up of 11.7 years, 266 cases of CHD death and 271 cases of nonfatal MI occurred. In the fully adjusted model, no significant associations were identified between individual NEFA and CHD composite. Exploratory analyses indicated that lauric acid (12:0) was negatively associated (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.59-0.98; P=0.0328) and dihomo-γ-linolenic acid (20:3n-6) was positively associated with CHD mortality (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.02-1.76; P=0.0351). Elaidic acid (18:1n-7t) was positively associated with incident nonfatal MI (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.01-2.12; P=0.0445). No significant associations were observed for NEFA subclass and any outcomes. Conclusions In CHS participants, 2 NEFAs, dihomo-γ-linolenic and elaidic acids, were positively associated with CHD mortality and nonfatal MI, respectively, suggesting potential susceptibility biomarkers for risks of CHD mortality and nonfatal MI.

Coronary heart disease mortality trends during 50 years as explained by risk factor changes: The European cohorts of the Seven Countries Study.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to relate risk factor changes during decades with 50-year coronary heart disease mortality in European cohorts of middle-aged men of the Seven Countries Study. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In the 1950s-early 1960s, nine cohorts of 6518 men aged 40-59 years were examined in five European countries. Smoking habits, systolic blood pressure and serum cholesterol were measured at entry and five times during the next 35 years and a comprehensive Risk Factor Change Score was created. Coronary heart disease mortality data was collected during a 50-year follow-up, modelled by the Weibull distribution, whose shape (Weibull shape) was related to the Risk Factor Change Score by linear regression. RESULTS: The Risk Factor Change Score showed slight declines in the Finnish and Dutch cohorts, moderate or large increases in the other cohorts. These effects were related to a decrease of smoking habits in all cohorts, an increase of blood pressure in all cohorts except East Finland, a decrease of serum cholesterol in Finland and the Netherlands, whereas serum cholesterol increases were slight in Italy and large in Serbia and Greece. Weibull distribution shape for coronary heart disease mortality showed slight deceleration in one Finnish and the Dutch cohorts, large acceleration in the Serbian and Greek cohorts. The correlation coefficient of the Risk Factor Change Score versus Weibull shape for the nine cohorts was 0.78 (R2 = 0.60; p = 0.0132). CONCLUSIONS: Spontaneous long-term changes of major coronary risk factor levels were associated with changes in the same direction of coronary heart disease mortality risk modelled by the Weibull distribution, expressing a kind of 'natural experiment' with an outcome that matches those of controlled preventive trials.

Exercise cardiac power and the risk of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular mortality in men.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine the relationship of exercise cardiac power (ECP), defined as a ratio of directly measured maximal oxygen uptake with peak systolic blood pressure during exercise, with the risk of mortality from coronary heart diseases (CHD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). DESIGN: Population-based cohort study with an average follow-up of 25 years from eastern Finland. About 2358 men at baseline participated in exercise stress test and 182 CHD and 302 CVD deaths occurred. RESULTS: Men with low ECP (< 8.7 mL/mmHg, lowest quartile) had a 3.5-fold (95% CI 2.1-5.8, p < 0.0001) risk of CHD mortality as compared with men with high ECP (>16.4 mL/mmHg, highest quartile) after adjusting for age and examination year. Low ECP was associated with a 2.8-fold risk of CHD and 2.4-fold for CVD mortality after additional adjustment for conventional risk factors. After further adjustment for leisure time physical activity, the results hardly changed (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.71-3.67, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: ECP provides non-invasive and easily available measure for the prediction of CHD and CVD mortality. One of the most potential explanation for the association between ECP and the risk of CHD and CVD mortality is an elevated afterload and peripheral resistance indicated by hypertension. Key messages Index of exercise cardiac power defined as the ratio of directly measured maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) with peak systolic blood pressure gives prognostic information in coronary heart disease (CHD) and CVD mortality risk stratification. ECP provides non-invasive and easily available measure for the prediction of CHD and CVD mortality. One of the most potential explanation for the association between ECP and the risk of CHD and CVD mortality is an elevated afterload and peripheral resistance indicated by hypertension.

Family history of premature myocardial infarction, life course socioeconomic position and coronary heart disease mortality--A Cohort of Norway (CONOR) study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To investigate self-reported family history (FH) of premature myocardial infarction (MI) in first-degree relatives as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, and assess whether any observed effect could be explained by current or life course socioeconomic position. METHODS: 130,066 participants from Cohort of Norway were examined during 1994-2003. A subgroup (n=84,631) had additional life course socioeconomic data. Using Cox proportional hazard analyses, we calculated hazard ratios (HR) for CHD mortality, assessed by linkages to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry through 2009. For subgroup analyses, we created an index of life course socioeconomic position, and assessed its role as a potential confounder in the association of FH with CHD. RESULTS: For men, MI in parents and siblings were both a significant risk factor for CHD mortality after adjusting for established risk factors and current socioeconomic conditions; the highest risk was with MI in siblings (HR: 1.44 [1.19-1.75]). For women, FH constituted significant risk after similar adjustment only for those with MI in parents plus siblings (HR: 1.78 [1.16-2.73]). Adjusting for current and life course socioeconomic conditions only marginally lowered the estimates, and those with FH did not have worse life course socioeconomic position than those without. CONCLUSIONS: FH of premature MI is an independent risk factor for CHD mortality that differs in magnitude of effect by the sex of the index person and type of familial relationship. Life course socioeconomic position has little impact on the association between FH and CHD, suggesting the effect is not confounded by this.

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the Czech Republic between 1985 and 2007.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has declined substantially in the Czech Republic over the last two decades. DESIGN: The purpose of this study was to determine what proportion of this CHD mortality decline could be associated with temporal trends in major CHD risk factors and what proportion with advances in medical and surgical treatments. METHODS: The validated IMPACT mortality model was used to combine and analyse data on uptake and effectiveness of CHD management and risk factor trends in the Czech Republic in adults aged 25-74 years between 1985 and 2007. The main sources were official statistics, national quality of care registries, published trials and meta-analyses, and the Czech MONICA and Czech post-MONICA studies. RESULTS: Between 1985 and 2007, age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Czech Republic decreased by 66.2% in men and 65.4% in women in the age group 25-74 years, representing 12,080 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. Changes in CHD risk factors explained approximately 52% of the total mortality decrease, and improvements in medical treatments approximately 43%. Increases in body mass index and in diabetes prevalence had a negative impact, increasing CHD mortality by approximately 1% and 5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: More than half of the very substantial fall in CHD mortality in the Czech Republic between 1985 and 2007 was attributable to reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors. Improvement in treatments accounted for approximately 43% of the total mortality decrease. These findings emphasize the value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatment.

Comparative analysis of red cell distribution width and high sensitivity C-reactive protein for coronary heart disease mortality prediction in multi-ethnic population: findings from the 1999-2004 NHANES.

BACKGROUND: Red cell distribution width (RDW) has been shown to predict all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality. However, the predictive ability of RDW for future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in comparison to high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) has not been assessed in a population cohort free of CVD. METHODS: Analysis was performed on 8,513 adult participants (age > 20 years) free of CVD from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1999-2004. Cox-proportional hazard analyses were used to assess the role of RDW and hs-CRP in CHD mortality and in subgroups based on high and low RDW and hs-CRP. RESULTS: On adjustment for traditional risk factors (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, anti-hypertensive medication use, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, lipid lowering therapy, smoking, diabetes mellitus, anemia, mean corpuscular volume and nutritional deficiencies), RDW [hazard ratio (HR) 1.26 95% Confidence Interval (CI) [1.12-1.42] p < 0.001] remained an independent predictor, while hs-CRP [HR 1.18 95% CI [0.98-1.41] p = 0.077] did not. On comparative analysis, high RDW (> 12.6%) was predictive of CHD mortality irrespective of hs-CRP status [hs-CRP ≤ 3 mg/L (HR 1.17 95% CI [1.01-1.36] p = 0.031)] and hs-CRP > 3 mg/L (HR 1.44 95% CI [1.23-1.68] p < 0.001). Hs-CRP was not predictive in either high or low RDW subgroup. CONCLUSION: RDW but not hs-CRP was associated with CHD mortality independent of traditional risk factors in a cohort with no pre-existing CVD. RDW may be considered a stronger biomarker for CHD death than hs-CRP and needs further prospective evaluation in CVD risk assessment.