Rethinking local resilience for extreme heat events.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide insights into how local resilience structures in England can be leveraged to deliver a whole-of-society approach to managing a national response to extreme heat events during summer months. STUDY DESIGN: A communication based on the literature review of currently available research on health emergency response and extreme heat events in England. METHODS: This communication draws insights from the authors' research programmes, which examined national-level public health emergency response during the COVID-19 pandemic and literature review of the latest available English research on health and extreme heat events. RESULTS: Periods of extreme heat are on the rise in England. Local resilience forums (LRFs), due to their multiagency nature, offer a shared situational awareness and understanding of the need in their local communities. Such information is critical to ensure messaging about heat risks and available resources are tailored to reach specific targeted groups within their communities. Scenario planning and adaptation efforts require a more local articulation which LRFs are well placed to manage. CONCLUSIONS: LRFs are well suited as key structures in the English emergency response to extreme heat events. We suggest that English public health and hospital organisations, working with community partners via the LRFs, must develop their thinking about pressures from adverse weather in the summer months.

Beirut Port Blast 2020: New Lessons Learned in Mass Casualty Incident Management in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: On August 4, 2020, Lebanon suffered its largest mass casualty incident (MCI) to date: the Beirut Port blast. Hospital emergency response to MCIs is particularly challenging in low- and middle-income countries, where emergency medical services are not well developed and where hospitals have to rapidly scale up capacity to receive large influxes of casualties. This article describes the American University of Beirut Medical Center (AUBMC) response to the Beirut Port blast and outlines the lessons learned. DISCUSSION: The Beirut Port blast reinforced the importance of proper preparedness and flexibility in managing an MCI. Effective elements of AUBMC's MCI plan included geographic-based activation criteria, along with use of Wi-Fi messaging systems for timely notification of disaster teams. Crowd control through planned facility closures allowed medical teams to focus on patient care. Pre-identified surge areas with prepared disaster cart deployment allowed the teams to scale up quickly. Several challenges were identified related to electronic medical records (EMRs), including patient registration, staff training on EMR disaster modules, and cumbersome EMR admission process workflows. Finally, this experience highlights the importance of psychological debriefs after MCIs. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital MCI preparedness plans can integrate several strategies that are effective in quickly scaling up capacity to respond to large MCIs. These are especially necessary in countries that lack coordinated prehospital systems.

On the value and costs of protective actions in a nuclear emergency.

This paper reviews the current orthodoxy for the prompt application of shelter and evacuation advice in the event of a nuclear emergency in the light of the reassessment of the perceived costs and benefits of these protective actions that followed the Fukushima event. In particular, it discusses the mechanisms and criteria for the withdrawal of protective action advice or their continuation for more than a few hours and their impact on public perception. It suggests that lack of thought given to this area may lead to protective actions being kept in place for longer than necessary leading to more harm than good. It also considers the language used to recommend protective actions and to modify them as the event unfolds. Would over strong language used at the start of the event to encourage compliance contribute to public concerns later? Finally, the report poses some discussion points.

Covid-19 threat and coping: application of protection motivation theory to the pandemic experiences of people affected by amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: People with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are at high risk for severe outcomes from Covid-19 infection. Researchers exploring ALS and Covid-19 have focused primarily on system response and adaptation. Using Protection Motivation Theory, we investigated how people with ALS and family caregivers appraised and responded to Covid-19 threat, the 'costs' associated with pandemic response, and how health professionals and systems can better support people affected by ALS who are facing public health emergencies. METHODS: Data were drawn from the 'ALS Talk Project,' an asynchronous, moderated focus group study. Participants were recruited from regions across Canada. Seven groups met online over 14 weeks between January and July 2020. Fifty-three participants contributed to Covid-19 discussions. Data were qualitatively analyzed using directed content analysis and the constant-comparative approach. RESULTS: Participants learned about the Covid-19 pandemic from the media. They rapidly assessed their vulnerability and responded to Covid-19 threat by following recommendations from health authorities, information monitoring, and preparing for worst-case scenarios. Adopting protective behaviors had substantial response costs, including adaptations for medical care and home support workers, threatened access to advance care, and increased caregiver burden. Participants expressed need for ALS-specific, pandemic information from trusted health professionals and/or ALS health charities. Telemedicine introduced both conveniences and costs. Prior experience with ALS provided tools for coping with Covid-19. Threat and coping appraisal was a dynamic process involving ongoing vigilance and adaptation. Findings draw attention to the lack of emergency preparedness among participants and within health systems. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should engage ALS patients and families in ongoing discussions about pandemic coping, strategies to mitigate response costs, care pathways in the event of Covid-19 infection, and changing information about Covid-19 variants and vaccines. Healthcare systems should incorporate flexible approaches for medical care, leveraging the benefits of telemedicine and facilitating in-person interaction as needed and where possible. Research is needed to identify strategies to mitigate response costs and to further explore the interaction between prior experience and coping. Further study is also needed to determine how communication about emergency preparedness might be effectively incorporated into clinical care for those with ALS and other medically vulnerable populations.

Transfusion support during mass casualty events.

Transfusion support is an essential element of modern emergency healthcare. Blood services together with hospital transfusion teams are required to prepare for, and respond to, mass casualty events as part of wider healthcare emergency planning. Preparedness is a constant collaborative process that actively identifies and manages potential risks, to prevent such events becoming a 'disaster'. The aim of transfusion support during incidents is to provide sufficient and timely supply of blood components and diagnostic services, whilst maintaining support to other patients not involved in the event.

Changing transport planning objectives during the Covid-19 lockdowns: Actions taken and lessons learned for enhancing sustainable urban mobility planning.

Whilst there is research on how Covid-19 impacted travel demand and transport business, little attention has been paid on how Covid-19 has affected authorities' transport planning priorities and the actions taken to protect the public while travelling. This paper attempts to shed light on: a) how the transport planning priorities changed during the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020/2021, and b) how the planning phases of the Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP) framework can be strengthened to support a more resilient emergency planning environment. To address these questions, an online questionnaire was designed followed up by personal interviews from selected European cities. Data collection took place in November and December 2020, when most European countries were in lockdowns. Thirteen public authorities participated in the online questionnaire, while nine out of them were further interviewed. A mixed methods approach is used to analyse the quantitative and qualitative data and bring the results together to assess how SUMP priorities have changed. The results showed that the priority planning objectives were different in the period during the 2020/2021 lockdowns compared to the period before that. Public transport system planning was a priority in both periods, while planning for shared mobility and Mobility as a Service was further prioritised in the 2020/21 lockdowns. The main reasons for prioritising specific planning objectives were to secure public health, minimise environmental impact, support economic recovery and address social equity. The changes in the priority of planning objectives were also diverse between smaller and larger urban areas. Most of the actions adopted to accommodate the prioritised planning objectives were already defined before Covid-19, indicating that the lockdowns have acted as an accelerator of specific existing planning objectives.

London 2017: Lessons learned in transfusion emergency planning.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Hospitals prepare for emergencies, but the impact on transfusion staff is rarely discussed. We describe the transfusion response to four major incidents (MIs) during a 6-month period. Three events were due to terrorist attacks, and the fourth was the Grenfell Tower fire. The aim of this paper was to share the practical lessons identified. METHODS: This was a retrospective review of four MIs in 2017 using patient administration systems, MI documentation and post-incident debriefs. Blood issue, usage and adverse events during the four activation periods were identified using the Laboratory Information Management System (TelePath). RESULTS: Thirty-four patients were admitted (18 P1, 4 P2, 11 P3 and 1 dead). Forty-five blood samples were received: 24 related to nine MI P1 patients. Four P1s received blood components, three with trauma and one with burns, and 35 components were issued. Total components used were six red blood cells (RBC), six fresh frozen plasma (FFP) and two cryoprecipitate pools. Early lessons identified included sample labelling errors (4/24). Errors resolved following the deployment of transfusion staff within the emergency department. Components were over-ordered, leading to time-expiry wastage of platelets. Careful staff management ensured continuity of transfusion services beyond the immediate response period. Debriefing sessions provided staff with support and enabled lessons to be shared. CONCLUSIONS: Transfusion teams were involved in repeated incidents. The demand for blood was minimal. Workload was related to sample handling rather than component issue. A shared situational awareness would improve stock management. A laboratory debriefing system offered valuable feedback for service improvement, staff training and support.

Public attitudes to, and behaviours taken during, hot weather by vulnerable groups: results from a national survey in England.

BACKGROUND: Hot weather leads to increased illness and deaths. The Heatwave Plan for England (HWP) aims to protect the population by raising awareness of the dangers of hot weather, especially for those most vulnerable. Individuals at increased risk to the effects of heat include older adults, particularly 75+, and those with specific chronic conditions, such as diabetes, respiratory and heart conditions. The HWP recommends specific protective actions which relate to five heat-health alert levels (levels 0-4). This study examines the attitudes to hot weather of adults in England, and the protective measures taken during a heatwave. METHODS: As part of a wider evaluation of the implementation and effects of the HWP, a survey (n = 3153) and focus groups, a form of group interview facilitated by a researcher, were carried out after the June 2017 level 3 heat-health alert. Survey respondents were categorised into three groups based on their age and health status: 'vulnerable' (aged 75+), 'potentially vulnerable' (aged 18-74 in poor health) and 'not vulnerable' (rest of the adult population) to hot weather. Multivariable logistic regression models identified factors associated with these groups taking protective measures. In-person group discussion, focused on heat-health, were carried out with 25 people, mostly aged 75 + . RESULTS: Most vulnerable and potentially vulnerable adults do not consider themselves at risk of hot weather and are unaware of the effectiveness of important protective behaviours. Only one-quarter of (potentially) vulnerable adults reported changing their behaviour as a result of hearing hot weather-related health advice during the level 3 alert period. Focus group findings showed many vulnerable adults were more concerned about the effects of the sun's ultra-violet radiation on the skin than on the effects of hot temperatures on health. CONCLUSIONS: Current public health messages appear to be insufficient, given the low level of (potentially) vulnerable adults changing their behaviour during hot weather. In the context of increasingly warmer summers in England due to climate change, public health messaging needs to convince (potentially) vulnerable adults of all the risks of hot weather (not just effects of sunlight on the skin) and of the importance of heat protective measures.

Water Conservation During COVID-19: View From the Front Lines.

Early in 2020, when the severity of COVID-19 became evident, US water utilities implementing conservation programs had to act quickly to determine how to mitigate changes in their conservation programs and staffing. Prioritization and collaboration helped utility staff settle into their new way of working, which included adapting to online connection with customers and each other. These adaptations might lead to permanent changes. Thanks in large part to the power of technology, many water conservation and customer education programs have continued, with interest and participation even increasing in some cases.

Emergency preparedness, resilience and response guidance for UK hospital transfusion teams.

OBJECTIVES: To present Emergency Preparedness, Resilience and Response (EPRR) guidance for Hospital Transfusion Teams on behalf of the National Blood Transfusion Committee emergency planning working group. BACKGROUND: The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 requires healthcare organisations to demonstrate that they can deal with major incidents while maintaining critical services. Recent mass casualty events and the use of transfusion-based resuscitation have highlighted the evolving role of the Hospital Transfusion Team. METHODS: This multi-disciplinary advice is informed by recent global and national experience, the 2018 NHS England clinical guidelines for Major Incidents, and stakeholder workshops. GUIDANCE: Transfusion staff should be familiar with local EPRR plans including casualty type and numbers. Staff should be exercised as part of wider Trust preparation, with documented roles and responsibilities. Transfusion support should be proactive and include blood issue, regulatory compliance and sample handling. Robust LIMS-compatible emergency identification systems are essential to minimise errors. Emergency stock management requires rapid assessment of existing stock and estimated demand before re-ordering. Initial demand should be based on 2 to 4 red blood cells (RBC) per patient admitted. Patients with significant haemorrhage may require further red cells and early haemostatic support. Where "universal" components are demanded, they should be gender appropriate. Senior staff should lead the response, log and communicate key decisions, and prepare for post-incident recovery. CONCLUSIONS: Transfusion teams have an important role in ensuring continuity of transfusion support. Teams should develop their EPRR plans based on local plans and national guidance. Emergency preparedness should include post-incident debriefing for ongoing staff support and future service improvement.

Tackling the elective case backlog generated by Covid-19: the scale of the problem and solutions.

BACKGROUND: In April 2020, Covid-19 brought NHS elective procedures to a halt. The aim of this paper is to produce accurate forecasts on the building backlog, highlight the state of waiting lists currently and propose solutions required to prevent a public health crisis. METHOD: Using data published by NHS digital and NHS England on previous years, we have analysed and used this to produce estimates of cancellations and missed cases. We also analyse government data on waiting lists and show compliance or lack of with these. RESULTS: We show that compliance with waiting list times pre pandemic was falling year on year (83.2% in 2020 down from 87% in 2019). Every month that passes we estimate that 400 000 cases are not being performed. This may include urgent cancer care work in some trusts. CONCLUSIONS: Waiting lists have been governed by strict rules since 2004. Given falling compliance with 18-week intention to treat we believe the scale of the backlog combined with NHS capacity diminished due to Covid-19 precautions is a public health crisis waiting to occur. We identify difficulties in resuming elective work and suggest strategies that could be employed to avoid a public health crisis.

Nuclear war and public health: preparedness, protection and the case for prevention.

BACKGROUND: According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the year 2018 saw a continuing 'drift into global instability' in which 'both the USA and Russia are on a path of strategic nuclear (weapons) renewal' with 3750 nuclear bombs globally deployed 'ready to fire'. Treaties are being abrogated with increasingly aggressive language exchanged, and discredited tactics such as 'limited use' revived. These developments risk an amplifying cascade of nuclear weapon fire, whether started by intent, miscalculation or unintentionally. RESULTS: A nuclear war would cause immediate and massive loss of human life, unprecedented damage to societal infrastructures and climatic disruption resulting in a 'nuclear winter' or 'nuclear famine'. CONCLUSIONS: The systems defending national territory against nuclear warhead missiles do not guarantee protection, and neither would hastily erected domestic shelters. Any post-survival world would be utterly different and severely challenging. The only effective preventative measures require nuclear disarmament through treaty.

A simplified math approach to predict ICU beds and mortality rate for hospital emergency planning under Covid-19 pandemic.

The different stages of Covid-19 pandemic can be described by two key-variables: ICU patients and deaths in hospitals. We propose simple models that can be used by medical doctors and decision makers to predict the trends on both short-term and long-term horizons. Daily updates of the models with real data allow forecasting some key indicators for decision-making (an Excel file in the Supplemental material allows computing them). These are beds allocation, residence time, doubling time, rate of renewal, maximum daily rate of change (positive/negative), halfway points, maximum plateaus, asymptotic conditions, and dates and time intervals when some key thresholds are overtaken. Doubling time of ICU beds for Covid-19 emergency can be as low as 2-3 days at the outbreak of the pandemic. The models allow identifying the possible departure of the phenomenon from the predicted trend and thus can play the role of early warning systems and describe further outbreaks.

Epidemic/Pandemic Emergency Planning for Water Utilities.

Epidemics and pandemics are natural disasters that water utilities must prepare for and respond to. There are mitigation measures that utilities can employ during an epidemic or pandemic to reduce the impact of these disasters on their operations and the communities that they serve. The guidance and resources in this article should help drinking water utilities deal with present and future COVID-19 concerns, as well as other public health emergencies that will undoubtedly occur in the future.

The West African Ebola emergency and reconstruction; lessons from Public Health England.

BACKGROUND: West African governments, the WHO and wider international community were caught unprepared for the world's largest Ebola outbreak of 2014-16. This was an unprecedented challenge to local services and international agencies, since the emergency required high-tech molecular diagnostic services operated by specialist staff and a coordinated emergency response in addition to humanitarian support, which was not available at the beginning of the outbreak. Public Health England (PHE), as a new national public health agency was well placed to provide support for these needs. After the outbreak, PHE supported reconstruction to ensure diagnostic and emergency planning capability remained in place in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak and build necessary public health infrastructure for the future. The article describes the role PHE played as a national public health agency supporting reconstruction and long-term development through the UK Government (Department for International Development) programme called 'Resilient Zero'. SOURCES OF DATA: Public Health England (PHE), UK Government's Department for International Development, WHO, US Centers for Communicable Diseases (CDC), China Centre for Communicable Diseases (China CDC). AREAS OF AGREEMENT: The need for reliable, sustainable, in country molecular diagnostics, together with a programme to strengthen in country Emergency Planning, Preparedness and Response (EPRR). AREAS OF CONTROVERSY: Providing high tech molecular capability in a resource-poor West African country with variable provision of basic diagnostic equipment, intermittent power supply, ineffective supply chains and maintaining training capacity for emergency planning in the long term. Emergency planning models from the West needed to be adapted for the countries' context. Short term aid projects as a model did not suite this development requirement. GROWING POINTS: PHE had strong local and international political support to reconstruct three Government regional laboratories and deploy molecular technology. Significant learning by PHE as a national public health agency and sharing this will be of benefit to other national public health agencies. UK staff reported increased levels of satisfaction and experience relevant to public health practice. The Sierra Leonean Government and officials requested long-term levels of commitment. It is important for agencies such as PHE to constantly learn, develop long-term institutional partnerships and play a bigger role with other similar agencies internationally. AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH: How best to support sustainable high-tech molecular technology in West Africa and modules for emergency planning relevant to the context; evidence for long term versus short-term support for highly complex diagnostic capabilities; relevance to maintaining individual country public health infrastructure to ensuring global health security; benefits of overseas work for employee of a national agency.

Health and mass unemployment events-developing a framework for preparedness and response.

BACKGROUND: Mass unemployment events are not uncommon yet the impact on health is not well recognised. There is a need for a preparedness and response framework, as exists for other events that threaten population health. METHODS: Framework informed by a narrative review of the impact of mass unemployment on health (studies published in English from 1990 to 2016), and qualitative data from 23 semi-structured interviews with individuals connected to historical national and international events, addressing gaps in published literature on lessons learnt from past responses. RESULTS: Economic and employment shock triggered by mass unemployment events have a detrimental impact on workers, families and communities. We present a public health informed response framework which includes (i) identify areas at risk, (ii) develop an early warning system, (iii) mobilise multi-sector action including health and community, (iv) provision of support across employment, finance and health (v) proportionate to need, (vi) extend support to family members and (vii) communities and (viii) evaluate and learn. CONCLUSION: Mass unemployment events have an adverse impact on the health, financial and social circumstances of workers, families, and communities. This is the first framework for action to mitigate and address the detrimental impact of mass unemployment events on population health.

Technology Support for Collaborative Preparation of Emergency Plans.

Preparing a plan for reaction to a grave emergency is a significant first stage in disaster management. A group of experts can do such preparation. Best results are obtained with group members having diverse backgrounds and access to different relevant data. The output of this stage should be a plan as comprehensive as possible, taking into account various perspectives. The group can organize itself as a collaborative decision-making team with a process cycle involving modeling the process, defining the objectives of the decision outcome, gathering data, generating options and evaluating them according to the defined objectives. The meeting participants may have their own evidences concerning people's location at the beginning of the emergency and assumptions about people's reactions once it occurs. Geographical information is typically crucial for the plan, because the plan must be based on the location of the safe areas, the distances to move people, the connecting roads or other evacuation links, the ease of movement of the rescue personnel, and other geography-based considerations. The paper deals with this scenario and it introduces a computer tool intended to support the experts to prepare the plan by incorporating the various viewpoints and data. The group participants should be able to generate, visualize and compare the outcomes of their contributions. The proposal is complemented with an example of use: it is a real case simulation in the event of a tsunami following an earthquake at a certain urban location.

Pollutant Ground Concentrations of Nonneutrally Buoyant Particles.

A methodology is suggested for the estimation of the mass density and the cumulative ground deposition of a nonvolatile, nonneutrally buoyant, air pollutant (liquid or solid) released from a polluted column (following an explosion caused during routine operation in, e.g., the chemical industry or due to any kind of hostile act) and deposited on the ground via gravitational settling. In many cases, the deposited mass due to gravitational settling constitutes a significant fraction of the original inventory released from the source. Implementation of the methodology in preliminary risk assessments can serve as an efficient tool for emergency planning for both immediate and long-term measures such as evacuation and decontamination. The methodology considers, inter alia, an estimation of the critical particle diameter, particle size, and mass distributions along the polluted column. This methodology was developed to apply in rural regions since proper application of relevant meteorological input data can be accomplished mainly for such areas.