On Recent Large Antarctic Ozone Holes and Ozone Recovery Metrics.

The 2015 and 2020 ozone holes set record sizes in October-December. We show that these years, as well as other recent large ozone holes, still adhere to a fundamental recovery metric: the later onset of early spring ozone depletion as chlorine and bromine diminishes. This behavior is also captured in the Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model. We quantify observed recovery trends of the onset of the ozone hole and in the size of the September ozone hole, with good model agreement. A substantial reduction in ozone hole depth during September over the past decade is also seen. Our results indicate that, due to dynamical phenomena, it is likely that large ozone holes will continue to occur intermittently in October-December, but ozone recovery will still be detectable through the later onset, smaller, and less deep September ozone holes: metrics that are governed more by chemical processes.

A New MEPED-Based Precipitating Electron Data Set.

The work presented here introduces a new data set for inclusion of energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in climate model simulations. Measurements made by the medium energy proton and electron detector (MEPED) instruments onboard both the Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites and the European Space Agency Meteorological Operational satellites are used to create global maps of precipitating electron fluxes. Unlike most previous data sets, the electron fluxes are computed using both the 0° and 90° MEPED detectors. Conversion of observed, broadband electron count rates to differential spectral fluxes uses a linear combination of analytical functions instead of a single function. Two dimensional maps of electron spectral flux are created using Delaunay triangulation to account for the relatively sparse nature of the MEPED sampling. This improves on previous studies that use a 1D interpolation over magnetic local time or L-shell zonal averaging of the MEPED data. A Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) simulation of the southern hemisphere 2003 winter using the new precipitating electron data set is shown to agree more closely with observations of odd nitrogen than WACCM simulations using other MEPED-based electron data sets. Simulated EEP-induced odd nitrogen increases led to ozone losses of more than 15% in the polar stratosphere near 10 hPa in September of 2003.

Transport of Nitric Oxide Via Lagrangian Coherent Structures Into the Top of the Polar Vortex.

The energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect (IE) refers to the downward transport of reactive odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2) produced by EPP (EPP-NOx) from the polar winter mesosphere and lower thermosphere to the stratosphere where it can destroy ozone. Previous studies of the EPP IE examined NOx descent averaged over the polar region, but the work presented here considers longitudinal variations. We report that the January 2009 split Arctic vortex in the stratosphere left an imprint on the distribution of NO near the mesopause, and that the magnitude of EPP-NOx descent in the upper mesosphere depends strongly on the planetary wave (PW) phase. We focus on an 11-day case study in late January immediately following the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming during which regional-scale Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) formed atop the strengthening mesospheric vortex. The LCSs emerged over the north Atlantic in the vicinity of the trough of a 10-day westward traveling planetary wave. Over the next week, the LCSs acted to confine NO-rich air to polar latitudes, effectively prolonging its lifetime as it descended into the top of the polar vortex. Both a whole atmosphere data assimilation model and satellite observations show that the PW trough remained coincident in space and time with the NO-rich air as both migrated westward over the Canadian Arctic. Estimates of descent rates indicate five times stronger descent inside the PW trough compared to other longitudes. This case serves to set the stage for future climatological analysis of NO transport via LCSs.

On the response of the middle atmosphere to anthropogenic forcing.

Anthropogenic forcing of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases (GHG) and ozone-depleting substances has provided an unintended test of the robustness of current understanding of the physics and chemistry of the middle atmosphere, that is, the stratosphere and mesosphere. We explore this topic by examining how well anthropogenic changes can be simulated by modern, comprehensive numerical models. Specifically, we discuss the simulations of trends in global mean temperature; the development of the ozone hole and its impact on the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere, both in the stratosphere and troposphere; trends in the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation; and the response of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to increasing burdens of CO2 . We find that, in most of these cases, numerical simulation is able to reproduce observed changes and provide physical insights into the relevant mechanisms. Simulation of the QBO is on a less firm footing. Although many numerical models can now generate realistic QBOs, future projections of its behavior under the increasing burdens of GHG are inconsistent and even contradictory.

New insights for mesospheric OH: multi-quantum vibrational relaxation as a driver for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium.

The question of whether mesospheric OH(υ) rotational population distributions are in equilibrium with the local kinetic temperature has been debated over several decades. Despite several indications for the existence of non-equilibrium effects, the general consensus has been that emissions originating from low rotational levels are thermalized. Sky spectra simultaneously observing several vibrational levels demonstrated reproducible trends in the extracted OH(υ) rotational temperatures as a function of vibrational excitation. Laboratory experiments provided information on rotational energy transfer and direct evidence for fast multi-quantum OH(high-υ) vibrational relaxation by O atoms. We examine the relationship of the new relaxation pathways with the behavior exhibited by OH(υ) rotational population distributions. Rapid OH(high-υ) + O multi-quantum vibrational relaxation connects high and low vibrational levels and enhances the hot tail of the OH(low-υ) rotational distributions. The effective rotational temperatures of mesospheric OH(υ) are found to deviate from local thermodynamic equilibrium for all observed vibrational levels.