The long-term genetic stability and individual specificity of the human gut microbiome.

By following up the gut microbiome, 51 human phenotypes and plasma levels of 1,183 metabolites in 338 individuals after 4 years, we characterize microbial stability and variation in relation to host physiology. Using these individual-specific and temporally stable microbial profiles, including bacterial SNPs and structural variations, we develop a microbial fingerprinting method that shows up to 85% accuracy in classifying metagenomic samples taken 4 years apart. Application of our fingerprinting method to the independent HMP cohort results in 95% accuracy for samples taken 1 year apart. We further observe temporal changes in the abundance of multiple bacterial species, metabolic pathways, and structural variation, as well as strain replacement. We report 190 longitudinal microbial associations with host phenotypes and 519 associations with plasma metabolites. These associations are enriched for cardiometabolic traits, vitamin B, and uremic toxins. Finally, mediation analysis suggests that the gut microbiome may influence cardiometabolic health through its metabolites.

Pathogen exposure misclassification can bias association signals in GWAS of infectious diseases when using population-based common control subjects.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been performed to identify host genetic factors for a range of phenotypes, including for infectious diseases. The use of population-based common control subjects from biobanks and extensive consortia is a valuable resource to increase sample sizes in the identification of associated loci with minimal additional expense. Non-differential misclassification of the outcome has been reported when the control subjects are not well characterized, which often attenuates the true effect size. However, for infectious diseases the comparison of affected subjects to population-based common control subjects regardless of pathogen exposure can also result in selection bias. Through simulated comparisons of pathogen-exposed cases and population-based common control subjects, we demonstrate that not accounting for pathogen exposure can result in biased effect estimates and spurious genome-wide significant signals. Further, the observed association can be distorted depending upon strength of the association between a locus and pathogen exposure and the prevalence of pathogen exposure. We also used a real data example from the hepatitis C virus (HCV) genetic consortium comparing HCV spontaneous clearance to persistent infection with both well-characterized control subjects and population-based common control subjects from the UK Biobank. We find biased effect estimates for known HCV clearance-associated loci and potentially spurious HCV clearance associations. These findings suggest that the choice of control subjects is especially important for infectious diseases or outcomes that are conditional upon environmental exposures.

Histologic Remission in Inflammatory Bowel Disease and Female Fertility: A Nationwide Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is linked to reduced female fertility, but it is unclear how fertility rates vary by histologic disease activity. METHODS: Nationwide IBD cohort of Swedish women aged 15 to 44 years. We examined fertility rates during periods with vs without histologic inflammation (n = 21,046; follow-up, 1990-2016) and during periods with vs without clinical activity (IBD-related hospitalization, surgery, or treatment escalation) (n = 24,995; follow-up, 2006-2020). Accounting for sociodemographics and comorbidities, we used Poisson regression to estimate adjusted fertility rate ratios (aFRRs) for live births conceived during 12-month periods of histologic inflammation (vs histologic remission) and 3-month periods of clinically active IBD (vs quiescent IBD). RESULTS: During periods with vs without histologic inflammation, there were 6.35 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.98-6.73) and 7.09 (95% CI, 6.48-7.70) live births conceived per 100 person-years of follow-up, respectively, or 1 fewer child per 14 women with 10 years of histologic inflammation (aFRR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.81-1.00). In women with histologic inflammation, fertility was similarly reduced in ulcerative colitis (UC) (aFRR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.78-1.02]) and Crohn's disease (CD) (aFRR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.72-1.04]). Clinical IBD activity was associated with an aFRR of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.79) or 1 fewer child per 6 women with 10 years of clinical activity. Fertility was reduced in clinically active UC (aFRR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.70-0.81]) and CD (aFRR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.70-0.82]). Finally, among women with clinically quiescent IBD, histologic inflammation (vs histologic remission) was associated with reduced fertility (aFRR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.73-0.98]). CONCLUSIONS: An association between histologic and clinical activity and reduced female fertility in CD and UC was found. Notably, histologic inflammation was also linked to reduced fertility in women with clinically quiescent IBD.

Antireflux Surgery Versus Antireflux Medication and Risk of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma in Patients With Barrett's Esophagus.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antireflux treatment is recommended to reduce esophageal adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's esophagus. Antireflux surgery (fundoplication) counteracts gastroesophageal reflux of all types of carcinogenic gastric content and reduces esophageal acid exposure to a greater extent than antireflux medication (eg, proton pump inhibitors). We examined the hypothesis that antireflux surgery prevents esophageal adenocarcinoma to a larger degree than antireflux medication in patients with Barrett's esophagus. METHODS: This multinational and population-based cohort study included all patients with a diagnosis of Barrett's esophagus in any of the national patient registries in Denmark (2012-2020), Finland (1987-1996 and 2010-2020), Norway (2008-2020), or Sweden (2006-2020). Patients who underwent antireflux surgery were compared with nonoperated patients using antireflux medication. The risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma was calculated using multivariable Cox regression, providing hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs adjusted for age, sex, country, calendar year, and comorbidity. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 33,939 patients with Barrett's esophagus. Of these, 542 (1.6%) had undergone antireflux surgery. During up to 32 years of follow-up, the overall HR was not decreased in patients having undergone antireflux surgery compared with nonoperated patients using antireflux medication, but rather increased (adjusted HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5). In addition, HRs did not decrease with longer follow-up, but instead increased for each follow-up category, from 1.8 (95% CI, 0.6-5.0) within 1-4 years of follow-up to 4.4 (95% CI, 1.4-13.5) after 10-32 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with Barrett's esophagus who undergo antireflux surgery do not seem to have a lower risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma than those using antireflux medication.

Quadrivalent HPV vaccine effectiveness against cervical intraepithelial lesion grade 2 or worse in Norway: A registry-based study of 0,9 million Norwegian women.

In Norway, single cohort vaccination with quadrivalent HPV (qHPV) vaccine targeting 12-year-old girls took place from 2009-2016. In 2020, the oldest vaccinated cohort was 23 years old and had approached the age where risk of being diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial lesion grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) increases rapidly. The aim of this cohort study was to assess direct qHPV vaccine effectiveness (VE) against CIN2+ among Norwegian women aged 16-30 in 2007-2020. By using population-based health registries and individual-level data on vaccination status and potential subsequent CIN2+ incidence, we found 82% qHPV VE among women vaccinated before the age of 17.

Risk of cardiovascular events after influenza: A population-based Self Controlled Case Series study, Spain 2011-2018.

This study explores the relationship between influenza infection, both clinically diagnosed in primary-care and laboratory confirmed in hospital, and atherothrombotic events (acute myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) in Spain. A population-based self-controlled case series design was used with individual-level data from electronic registries (n = 2,230,015). The risk of atherothrombotic events in subjects ≥50 years old increased more than 2-fold during the 14 days after the mildest influenza cases in patients with fewer risk factors and more than 4-fold after severe cases in the most vulnerable patients, remaining in them more than 2-fold for 2 months. The transient increase of the association, its gradient after influenza infection and the demonstration by 4 different sensitivity analyses provide further evidence supporting causality. This work reinforces the official recommendations for influenza prevention in at-risk groups and should also increase the awareness of even milder influenza infection and its possible complications in the general population.

Glucose tolerance and insulin resistance/sensitivity associate with retinal layer characteristics: the LIFE-Adult-Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: As the prevalence of insulin resistance and glucose intolerance is increasing throughout the world, diabetes-induced eye diseases are a global health burden. We aim to identify distinct optical bands which are closely related to insulin and glucose metabolism, using non-invasive, high-resolution spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) in a large, population-based dataset. METHODS: The LIFE-Adult-Study randomly selected 10,000 participants from the population registry of Leipzig, Germany. Cross-sectional, standardised phenotyping included the assessment of various metabolic risk markers and ocular imaging, such as SD-OCT-derived thicknesses of ten optical bands of the retina. Global and Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) subfield-specific optical retinal layer thicknesses were investigated in 7384 healthy eyes of 7384 participants from the LIFE-Adult-Study stratified by normal glucose tolerance, prediabetes (impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance and/or HbA1c 5.7-6.4% [39-47 mmol/mol]) and diabetes. The association of optical retinal band characteristics with different indices of glucose tolerance (e.g. fasting glucose, area under the glucose curve), insulin resistance (e.g. HOMA2-IR, triglyceride glucose index), or insulin sensitivity (e.g. estimated glucose disposal rate [eGDR], Stumvoll metabolic clearance rate) was determined using multivariable linear regression analyses for the individual markers adjusted for age, sex and refraction. Various sensitivity analyses were performed to validate the observed findings. RESULTS: In the study cohort, nine out of ten optical bands of the retina showed significant sex- and glucose tolerance-dependent differences in band thicknesses. Multivariable linear regression analyses revealed a significant, independent, and inverse association between markers of glucose intolerance and insulin resistance (e.g. HOMA2-IR) with the thickness of the optical bands representing the anatomical retinal outer nuclear layer (ONL, standardised ß=-0.096; p<0.001 for HOMA2-IR) and myoid zone (MZ; ß=-0.096; p<0.001 for HOMA2-IR) of the photoreceptors. Conversely, markers of insulin sensitivity (e.g. eGDR) positively and independently associated with ONL (ß=0.090; p<0.001 for eGDR) and MZ (ß=0.133; p<0.001 for eGDR) band thicknesses. These global associations were confirmed in ETDRS subfield-specific analyses. Sensitivity analyses further validated our findings when physical activity, neuroanatomical cell/tissue types and ETDRS subfield categories were investigated after stratifying the cohort by glucose homeostasis. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: An impaired glucose homeostasis associates with a thinning of the optical bands of retinal ONL and photoreceptor MZ. Changes in ONL and MZ thicknesses might predict early metabolic retinal alterations in diabetes.

Population-Based Evaluation of Vaccine Effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Severe Illness, and Death, Taiwan.

Taiwan provided several COVID-19 vaccine platforms: mRNA (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273), adenoviral vector-based (AZD1222), and protein subunit (MVC-COV1901). After Taiwan shifted from its zero-COVID strategy in April 2022, population-based evaluation of vaccine effectiveness (VE) became possible. We conducted an observational cohort study of 21,416,151 persons to examine VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection, moderate and severe illness, and death during March 22, 2021-September 30, 2022. After adjusting for age and sex, we found that persons who completed 3 vaccine doses (2 primary, 1 booster) or received MVC-COV1901 as the primary series had the lowest hospitalization incidence (0.04-0.20 cases/100,000 person-days). We also found 95.8% VE against hospitalization for 3 doses of BNT162b2, 91.0% for MVC-COV1901, 81.8% for mRNA-1273, and 65.7% for AZD1222, which had the lowest overall VE. Our findings indicated that protein subunit vaccines provide similar protection against SARS-CoV-2---associated hospitalization as mRNA vaccines and can inform mix-and-match vaccine selection in other countries.

Prevalence of survivors of childhood cancer based on a population-based cancer registry in Osaka, Japan.

Although the survival rate of patients with childhood cancer has greatly improved, long-term survivors face specific problems such as the late effects of cancer treatment. In this study, we estimated the number of people who had experienced childhood cancer to predict their needs for medical care and social resources. Using data from the population-based Osaka Cancer Registry, we identified children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with cancer between 1975 and 2019. We estimated the prevalence on December 31, 2019, and the 5- and 10-year prevalence (i.e., the number of survivors living up to 5 or 10 years after the diagnosis of cancer) over time. The prevalence proportion was age-standardized using a direct standardization method. The prevalence estimates for Osaka were applied to the national population to determine the national prevalence in Japan. Among 8186 patients diagnosed with childhood cancer in Osaka, 5252 (987 per million) survived until December 31, 2019. The 5-year prevalence per million increased from 194 in 1979 to 417 in 2019 (+116%), while the 10-year prevalence increased from 391 in 1984 to 715 in 2019 (+83%). Based on the long-term registry data, an estimated 73,182 childhood cancer survivors were living in Japan by the end of 2019. The increasing 5-year and 10-year prevalence proportions indicate the continued need for cancer survivorship support for children, adolescents, and young adults. These estimates of the prevalence of childhood cancer survivors, including long-term survivors, may be useful for policymakers and clinicians to plan and evaluate survivorship care.

Age-related phenotypes in breast cancer: A population-based study.

Breast cancer in young (<40 years) is associated with a higher frequency of aggressive tumor types and poor prognosis. It remains unclear if there is an underlying age-related biology that contributes to the unfavorable outcome. We aim to investigate the relationship between age and breast cancer biology, with emphasis on proliferation. Clinico-pathologic information, immunohistochemical markers and follow-up data were obtained for all patients aged <50 (Bergen cohort-1; n = 355, not part of a breast screening program) and compared to previously obtained information on patients aged 50 to 69 years (Bergen cohort-2; n = 540), who participated in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Young breast cancer patients presented more aggressive tumor features such as hormone receptor negativity, HER2 positivity, lymph-node metastasis, the HER2-enriched and triple-negative subtypes and shorter survival. Age <40 was significantly associated with higher proliferation (by Ki67). Ki67 showed weaker prognostic value in young patients. We point to aggressive phenotypes and increased tumor cell proliferation in breast cancer of the young. Hence, tumors of young breast cancer patients may present unique biological features, also when accounting for screen/interval differences, that may open for new clinical opportunities, stratifying treatment by age.

Stage at diagnosis of colorectal cancer in the Middle East and Northern Africa: A population-based cancer registry study.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the 2nd most common cancer and 3rd most common cause of death in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region. We aimed to explore CRC stage at diagnosis data from population-based cancer registries in MENA countries. In 2021, we launched a Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development (GICR) survey on staging practices and breast and CRC stage distributions in MENA. According to the survey results, population-based data on TNM stage for CRC were available from six registries in five countries (Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Türkiye, UAE). The proportion of cases with unknown TNM stage ranged from 14% in Oman to 47% in Casablanca, Morocco. The distribution of CRC cases with known stage showed TNM stage IV proportions of 26-45%, while the proportions of stage I cancers were lowest in Morocco (≤7%), and highest (19%) in Izmir, Türkiye. Summary extent of disease data was available from six additional registries and four additional countries (Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar). In summary, the proportions of CRC diagnosed with distant metastases in Oman, Bahrain and UAE were lower than other MENA countries in our study, but higher than in European and the US populations. Harmonising the use of staging systems and focusing stage data collection efforts on major cancers, such as CRC, is needed to monitor and evaluate progress in CRC control in the region.

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons promotes the progression of low-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: A population-based cohort study in China.

Low-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN1) is an early stage of cervical cancer development. Previously, we reported that exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) increases the risk of cervical precancerous lesions, especially in females with a high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infection. However, the effects of PAHs on CIN1 progression remain unclear. A community-based prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the role of exposure to PAHs in the progression of CIN1. A total of 564 patients diagnosed with CIN1 were followed-up at 6, 12, and 24 months, post-diagnosis, to determine CIN1 reversion, persistence, and progression. Exposure to PAHs was determined by the urine 1-hydroxipayrene (1-OHP) level. Our results showed that the 1-OHP level was significantly higher in patients with CIN1 persistence/progression than in those with reversion (P < .05). High exposure to PAHs increased the risk of CIN1 persistence/progression, with hazard ratios (HR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) of (1.62, 1.24-2.67), (1.98, 1.42-2.75), and (2.37, 1.61-3.49) at 6, 12, and 24 months, post-diagnosis, respectively. The effect was enhanced with HR-HPV positivity, as determined at 6 (1.82, 1.24-2.67), 12 (3.02, 1.74-5.23), and 24 (2.51, 1.48-4.26) months, post-diagnosis. Moreover, the predictive value of exposure to PAHs for CIN1 persistence/progression was higher in HR-HPV-positive patients than in HR-HPV-negative patients. The results revealed that exposure to PAHs facilitated the malignant progression of CIN1 and hindered its reversal, particularly in patients with HR-HPV infection. Our findings provide novel insights into early prevention and intervention targeting the initiation and progression of cervical neoplasia.

Subsite-specific trends in mid- and long-term survival for head and neck cancer patients in Japan: A population-based study.

Advances in diagnostic techniques and treatment modalities have impacted head and neck cancer (HNC) prognosis, but their effects on subsite-specific prognosis remain unclear. This study aimed to assess subsite-specific trends in mid- and long-term survival for HNC patients diagnosed from 1993 to 2011 using data from population-based cancer registries in Japan. We estimated the net survival (NS) for HNC by subsite using data from 13 prefectural population-based cancer registries in Japan. Changes in survival over time were assessed by multivariate excess hazard model of mortality. In total, 68,312 HNC patients were included in this analysis. We observed an overall improvement in 5-year NS for HNC patients in Japan. However, survival varied among subsites of HNC, with some, such as naso-, oro- and hypopharyngeal cancers, showing significant improvement in both 5- and 10-year NS, whereas others such as laryngeal cancer showed only a slight improvement in 5-year NS and no significant change in 10-year NS after adjustment for age, sex and stage. In conclusion, the study provides insights into changing HNC survival by site at the population level in Japan. Although advances in diagnostic techniques and treatment modalities have improved survival, these improvements are not shared equally among subsites.

Trends in patterns of treatment and survival of colorectal cancer patients using cancer registry data in Japan: 1995-2015.

Recent advances in treating colorectal cancer (CRC) have increased the importance of multidisciplinary treatment. This study aimed to clarify trends in the treatment and survival of CRC using population-based cancer registry data in Japan. We analyzed the survival of CRC cases diagnosed from 1995 through 2015 from a population-based cancer registry of six prefectures. The year of diagnosis was classified into five periods, and the trends in the detailed categorization of treatments and survival were identified. We calculated net survival and excess hazard of death from cancer using data on 256,590 CRC patients. The use of laparoscopic surgery has been increasing since 2005 and accounts for the largest proportion of treatment types in the most recent period. Net survival of CRC patients diagnosed after 2005 remained high for laparoscopic surgery and endoscopic surgery (endoscopic mucosal resection or endoscopic submucosal dissection). There was an upward trend in treatment with chemotherapy in addition to open and laparoscopic surgery. Using the excess hazard ratio at the regional stage since 2005, there has been a significant improvement in survival in the younger age group and the rectum cancer group. By type of treatment, there was a tendency toward significant improvement in the open surgery + chemotherapy group. We clarified the trends in treating CRC and the associated trends in survival. Continuous survey based on population-based data helps monitor the impact of developments in treatment.

Time trend analysis of rare cancer incidence 2011-2018: Nationwide population-based cancer registries in Japan.

Rare cancers collectively account for a significant proportion of the overall cancer burden in Japan. We aimed to describe and examine the incidence of each rare cancer and the temporal changes using the internationally agreed rare cancer classification. Cancer cases registered in regional population-based cancer registries from 2011 to 2015 and the National Cancer Registry (NCR) from 2016 to 2018 were classified into 18 families, 68 Tier-1 cancer groupings, and 216 single cancer entities based on the RARECAREnet list. Crude incidence rates and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were calculated for Tier-1 and Tier-2 cancers. The annual percent change and the 95% and 99% confidence limits for annual ASR for each of the 68 Tier-1 cancers were estimated using the log-linear regression of the weighted least squares method. The differences in ASRs between 2011 and 2018 were evaluated as an absolute change. A total of 5,640,879 cases were classified into Tier-1 and Tier-2 cancers. The ASRs of 18 out of 52 Tier-1 cancers in the rare cancer families increased, whereas the ASR for epithelial tumors of gallbladder decreased. The ASRs of 6 out of the 16 Tier-1 cancers in the common cancer families increased, whereas those of epithelial tumors of stomach and liver decreased. There was no significant change in the incidence of the other 40 Tier-1 cancers. The incidence of several cancers increased due to the dissemination of diagnostic concepts, improved diagnostic techniques, changes in coding practice, and the initiation of the NCR.

Polycystic ovary syndrome and endometrial cancer risk: results from a nationwide cohort study.

Most previous studies have found an elevated risk of endometrial cancer among women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). However, these have highly varying methods for ascertainment of PCOS diagnoses and have limitations such as few exposed women and short follow-up. In this cohort study, we investigated the association between PCOS and endometrial cancer among women born in Denmark between January 1, 1940, and December 31, 1993 (N=1,719,121). Data in this study, including PCOS and endometrial cancer diagnoses and covariates, were derived from nationwide registers. We used cox proportional hazard regression models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 7862 endometrial cancer cases were identified during 23.7 years of follow-up (inter quartile range 37.7-61.9). We found an increased risk of endometrial cancer among women with PCOS compared with women without PCOS (HR: 3.02, 95% CI; 2.03-4.49). The risk was increased for premenopausal women (HR5.82, 95% CI: 3.64-9.30) whereas no marked association was seen for postmenopausal women. However, for postmenopausal women, results were limited by few cases and young age at end of follow-up. Mounting evidence of an increased risk for endometrial cancer among women with PCOS reinforces the need for prevention and early detection.

Endometrial Cancer Survival in Populations of African Descent.

To examine whether the endometrial cancer (EC) survival disadvantage among Black populations is US-specific, a comparison between African descent populations from different countries with a high development index is warranted. We analyzed 28,213 EC cases from cancer registries in Florida (2005-2018) and Martinique (2005-2018)/Guadeloupe (2008-2018), French Caribbean islands. Kaplan-Meier and all-cause Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare survival. Models were stratified by EC histology type and the main predictor examined was race/ethnicity [non-Hispanic White (NHW) and Black (NHB) women in the US versus Black women residing in the Caribbean]. For endometrioid and non-endometrioid EC, after adjusting for age, histology, stage at diagnosis, receipt of surgery, period of diagnosis, and poverty level, US NHB women and Caribbean Blacks had a higher risk of death relative to US NHWs. There was no difference between US NHBs and Caribbean Blacks (HR 1.07, 95% CI: 0.88-1.30) with endometrioid EC. However, Caribbean Black women with non-endometrioid carcinomas had a 40% (HR 1.40, 95% CI: 1.13-1.74) higher risk of death than US NHBs. The low EC survival among US Black women extends to foreign populations of African descent. For the aggressive non-endometrioid ECs, survival in Caribbean Blacks outside of the US is considerably worse.

Current use of estrogen-containing oral contraceptives or hormone therapy and risk of COVID-19 infection and hospitalization: a population-based cohort study.

This population-based cohort study evaluated the association between current use of oral contraceptives (OC) among women under 50 years (n=306,541), and hormone therapy (HT) among women aged 50 or older (n=323,203), and COVID-19 infection and hospitalization. Current OC/HT use was recorded monthly using prescription dispensing data. COVID-19 infections were identified March 2020-February 2021. COVID-19 infection and hospitalization were identified through diagnosis codes and laboratory tests. Weighted generalized estimating equations models estimated multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for COVID-19 infection associated with time-varying OC/HT use. Among women with COVID-19, logistic regression models evaluated OC/HT use and COVID-19 hospitalization. Over 12 months, 11,727 (3.8%) women <50 years and 8,661 (2.7%) women ≥50 years experienced COVID-19 infections. There was no evidence of an association between OC use and infection (aOR=1.05; 95%CI: 0.97, 1.12). There was a modest association between HT use and infection (aOR=1.19; 95%CI: 1.03, 1.38). Women using OC had a 39% lower risk of hospitalization (aOR=0.61; 95%CI: 0.38, 1.00), but there was no association of HT use with hospitalization (aOR=0.89; 95%CI: 0.51, 1.53). These findings do not suggest a meaningfully greater risk of COVID-19 infection associated with OC or HT use. OC use may be associated with lower COVID-19 hospitalization risk.

Risk Factors for Community and Intrahousehold Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: Modeling in a Nationwide French Population-Based Cohort Study, the EpiCoV Study.

We assessed the risk of acquiring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from household and community exposure according to age, family ties, and socioeconomic and living conditions using serological data from a nationwide French population-based cohort study, the Epidémiologie et Conditions de Vie (EpiCoV) Study. A history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined by a positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay immunoglobulin G result in November-December 2020. We applied stochastic chain binomial models fitted to the final distribution of household infections to data from 17,983 individuals aged ≥6 years from 8,165 households. Models estimated the competing risks of being infected from community and household exposure. The age group 18-24 years had the highest risk of extrahousehold infection (8.9%, 95% credible interval (CrI): 7.5, 10.4), whereas the oldest (≥75 years) and youngest (6-10 years) age groups had the lowest risk, at 2.6% (95% CrI: 1.8, 3.5) and 3.4% (95% CrI: 1.9, 5.2), respectively. Extrahousehold infection was also associated with socioeconomic conditions. Within households, the probability of person-to-person transmission increased with age, from 10.6% (95% CrI: 5.0, 17.9) among children aged 6-10 years to 43.1% (95% CrI: 32.6, 53.2) among adults aged 65-74 years. Transmission was higher between partners (29.9%, 95% CrI: 25.6, 34.3) and from mother to child (29.1%, 95% CrI: 21.4, 37.3) than between individuals related by other family ties. In 2020 in France, the main factors identified for extrahousehold SARS-CoV-2 infection were age and socioeconomic conditions. Intrahousehold infection mainly depended on age and family ties.

Temporal changes in the risk of six-month post-covid symptoms: a national population-based cohort study.

It is unclear how the risk of post-covid symptoms evolved during the pandemic, especially before the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants and the availability of vaccines. We used modified Poisson regressions to compare the risk of six-month post-covid symptoms and their associated risk factors according to the period of first acute covid: during the French first (March-May 2020) or second (September-November 2020) wave. Non-response weights and multiple imputation were used to handle missing data. Among participants aged 15 or more in a national population-based cohort, the risk of post-covid symptoms was 14.6% (95% CI: 13.9%, 15.3%) in March-May 2020, versus 7.0% (95% CI: 6.3%, 7.7%) in September-November 2020 (adjusted RR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.20, 1.55). For both periods, the risk was higher in the presence of baseline physical condition(s), and it increased with the number of acute symptoms. During the first wave, the risk was also higher for women, in the presence of baseline mental condition(s), and it varied with educational level. In France in 2020, the risk of six-month post-covid symptoms was higher during the first than the second wave. This difference was observed before the spread of variants and the availability of vaccines.