Machine learning in the integration of simple variables for identifying patients with myocardial ischemia.

BACKGROUND: A significant number of variables are obtained when characterizing patients suspected with myocardial ischemia or at risk of MACE. Guidelines typically use a handful of them to support further workup or therapeutic decisions. However, it is likely that the numerous available predictors maintain intrinsic complex interrelations. Machine learning (ML) offers the possibility to elucidate complex patterns within data to optimize individual patient classification. We evaluated the feasibility and performance of ML in utilizing simple accessible clinical and functional variables for the identification of patients with ischemia or an elevated risk of MACE as determined through quantitative PET myocardial perfusion reserve (MPR). METHODS: 1,234 patients referred to Nitrogen-13 ammonia PET were analyzed. Demographic (4), clinical (8), and functional variables (9) were retrieved and input into a cross-validated ML workflow consisting of feature selection and modeling. Two PET-defined outcome variables were operationalized: (1) any myocardial ischemia (regional MPR < 2.0) and (2) an elevated risk of MACE (global MPR < 2.0). ROC curves were used to evaluate ML performance. RESULTS: 16 features were included for boosted ensemble ML. ML achieved an AUC of 0.72 and 0.71 in identifying patients with myocardial ischemia and with an elevated risk of MACE, respectively. ML performance was superior to logistic regression when the latter used the ESC guidelines risk models variables for both PET-defined labels (P < .001 and P = .01, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ML is feasible and applicable in the evaluation and utilization of simple and accessible predictors for the identification of patients who will present myocardial ischemia and an elevated risk of MACE in quantitative PET imaging.

Cardiac Comorbidity Risk Score: Zero-Burden Machine Learning to Improve Prediction of Postoperative Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

Background In this retrospective, observational study we introduce the Cardiac Comorbidity Risk Score, predicting perioperative major adverse cardiac events (MACE) after elective hip and knee arthroplasty. MACE is a rare but important driver of mortality, and existing tools, eg, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index demonstrate only modest accuracy. We demonstrate an artificial intelligence-based approach to identify patients at high risk of MACE within 4 weeks (primary outcome) of arthroplasty, that imposes zero additional burden of cost/resources. Methods and Results Cardiac Comorbidity Risk Score calculation uses novel machine learning to estimate MACE risk from patient electronic health records, without requiring blood work or access to any demographic data beyond that of sex and age, and accounts for variable/missing/incomplete information across patient records. Validated on a deidentified cohort (age >45 years, n=445 391), performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUROC), sensitivity/specificity, positive predictive value, and positive/negative likelihood ratios. In our cohort (age 63.5±10.5 years, 58.2% women, 34.2%/65.8% hip/knee procedures), 0.19% (882) experienced the primary outcome. Cardiac Comorbidity Risk Score achieved area under the receiver operator characteristics curve=80.0±0.4% (95% CI) for women and 80.1±0.5% (95% CI) for males, with 36.4% and 35.1% sensitivities, respectively, at 95% specificity, significantly outperforming Revised Cardiac Risk Index across all studied age-, sex-, risk-, and comorbidity-based subgroups. Conclusions Cardiac Comorbidity Risk Score, a novel artificial intelligence-based screening tool using known and unknown comorbidity patterns, outperforms state-of-the-art in predicting MACE within 4 weeks postarthroplasty, and can identify patients at high risk that do not demonstrate traditional risk factors.