Interobserver Agreement for Classifying Post-liver Transplant Biliary Strictures in Donation After Circulatory Death Donors.

INTRODUCTION: Biliary strictures are a common complication of donation after circulatory death (DCD) liver transplantation (LT) and require multiple endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) procedures. Three classification systems, based on cholangiograms, have been proposed for categorizing post-LT biliary strictures. We examined the interobserver agreement for each of the three classifications. METHODS: DCD LT recipients from 2012 through March 2017 undergoing ERCP for biliary strictures were included in the study. Initial cholangiograms delineating the entire biliary tree prior to endoscopic intervention were selected. One representative cholangiogram was selected from each ERCP. Five interventional endoscopists independently viewed each anonymized cholangiogram and classified the post-LT stricture according to each of the three classification systems. The Ling classification proposes four types of post-LT strictures based on their location. The Lee classification proposes four classes based on location and number of intrahepatic strictures. The binary system classifies strictures into anastomotic or non-anastomotic types. The Krippendorff's alpha reliability estimate was used to grade the strength of agreement as "poor," "fair," "moderate," "good," or "excellent" for values between 0-0.20, 0.21-0.4, 0.41-0.6, 0.61-0.08, and 0.81-1, respectively. RESULTS: One hundred DCD LT recipients (age 57.07 ± 8.8 years; 71 males) were initially evaluated. Of these, 49 patients who underwent 206 ERCP procedures for biliary strictures were included in the analysis. One hundred thirty-nine cholangiograms were selected and subsequently classified by five endoscopists. Interobserver agreement for post-LT biliary strictures was 0.354 for Ling classification (fair agreement), 0.405 for Lee classification (fair agreement), and 0.421 for the binary classification (moderate agreement). The binary classification provided the least amount of detail regarding the location and number of biliary strictures. DISCUSSION: The currently available classification systems for assessing post-LT biliary strictures have sub-optimal interobserver agreement. A better-designed classification system is needed for categorizing post-LT biliary strictures.

Early detection of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 at high risk of clinical deterioration: Utility of emergency department shock index.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 outbreak has put an unprecedented strain on Emergency Departments (EDs) and other critical care resources. Early detection of patients that are at high risk of clinical deterioration and require intensive monitoring, is key in ED evaluation and disposition. A rapid and easy risk-stratification tool could aid clinicians in early decision making. The Shock Index (SI: heart rate/systolic blood pressure) proved useful in detecting hemodynamic instability in sepsis and myocardial infarction patients. In this study we aim to determine whether SI is discriminative for ICU admission and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Retrospective, observational, single-center study. All patients ≥18 years old who were hospitalized with COVID-19 (defined as: positive result on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test) between March 1, 2020 and December 31, 2020 were included for analysis. Data were collected from electronic medical patient records and stored in a protected database. ED shock index was calculated and analyzed for its discriminative value on in-hospital mortality and ICU admission by a ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: In total, 411 patients were included. Of all patients 249 (61%) were male. ICU admission was observed in 92 patients (22%). Of these, 37 patients (40%) died in the ICU. Total in-hospital mortality was 28% (114 patients). For in-hospital mortality the optimal cut-off SI ≥ 0.86 was not discriminative (AUC 0.49 (95% CI: 0.43-0.56)), with a sensitivity of 12.3% and specificity of 93.6%. For ICU admission the optimal cut-off SI ≥ 0.57 was also not discriminative (AUC 0.56 (95% CI: 0.49-0.62)), with a sensitivity of 78.3% and a specificity of 34.2%. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, SI measured at ED presentation was not discriminative for ICU admission and was not useful for early identification of patients at risk of clinical deterioration.

Comparison of the Previous and Current Trauma-Related Shock Classifications: A Retrospective Cohort Study from a Level I Trauma Center.

PURPOSE: The aim was to examine the predictive value of the hypovolemic shock classification currently accepted by the Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) program over the previous one, which used only vital signs (VS) for patient allocation. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality; as secondary outcome, heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and base deficit (BD) data were compared and investigated in terms of mortality prediction. METHODS: Retrospective analysis at a level I trauma center between 2014 and 2019. Adult patients treated by trauma teams were allocated into severity classes (I-IV) based on the criteria of the current and previous ATLS classifications, respectively. The prognostic values for the classifications were determined with Fisher's exact test and χ2 test for independence, and compared with the 2-proportion Z test. The individual variables were analyzed with receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. RESULTS: A total of 156 patients met the inclusion criteria. Mortality was effectively predicted by both classifications, and there was no statistically significant difference between the predictive performances. According to ROC analyses, GCS, BD and SBP had significant prognostic values while HR change was ineffective in this regard. CONCLUSIONS: The currently used ATLS shock classification does not appear to be superior to the VS-based previous classification. GCS, BD and SBP are useful parameters to predict the prognosis. Changes in HR do not reflect the clinical course accurately; thus, further studies will be needed to determine the value of this parameter in trauma-associated hypovolemic-hemorrhagic shock conditions.

Validating the ATLS Shock Classification for Predicting Death, Transfusion, or Urgent Intervention.

BACKGROUND: The Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) shock classification has been accepted as the conceptual framework for clinicians caring for trauma patients. We sought to validate its ability to predict mortality, blood transfusion, and urgent intervention. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of trauma patients using the 2014 National Trauma Data Bank. Using initial vital signs data, patients were categorized into shock class based on the ATLS program. Rates for urgent blood transfusion, urgent operative intervention, and mortality were compared between classes. RESULTS: 630,635 subjects were included for analysis. Classes 1, 2, 3, and 4 included 312,404, 17,133, 31, and 43 patients, respectively. 300,754 patients did not meet criteria for any ATLS shock class. Of the patients in class 1 shock, 2653 died (0.9%), 3123 (1.0%) were transfused blood products, and 7115 (2.3%) underwent an urgent procedure. In class 2, 219 (1.3%) died, 387 (2.3%) were transfused, and 1575 (9.2%) underwent intervention. In class 3, 7 (22.6%) died, 10 (32.3%) were transfused, and 13 (41.9%) underwent intervention. In class 4, 15 (34.9%) died, 19 (44.2%) were transfused, and 23 (53.5%) underwent intervention. For uncategorized patients, 21,356 (7.1%) died, 15,168 (5.0%) were transfused, and 23,844 (7.9%) underwent intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of trauma patients do not meet criteria for any ATLS shock class. Uncategorized patients had a higher mortality (7.1%) than patients in classes 1 and 2 (0.9% and 1.3%, respectively). Classes 3 and 4 only accounted for 0.005% and 0.007%, respectively, of patients. The ATLS classification system does not help identify many patients in severe shock.

Relative blood loss in forensic medicine-do we need a change in doctrine?

In forensic medicine, blood loss is encountered frequently, either as a cause of death or as a contributing factor. Here, risk to life and lethality assessment is based on the concept of relative blood loss (absolute loss out of total volume). In emergency medicine, the Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLSⓇ) classification also refers to relative blood loss. We tested the validity of relative blood loss benchmarks with reference to lethality. Depending on the quality of the total blood volume (TBV) estimation formula, relative blood loss rates should be reflected in the case cohort as significantly higher absolute blood loss in heavier individuals since all TBV estimation formulas positively correlate body weight with TBV. METHOD: 80 autopsy cases with sudden, quantifiable, exclusively internal blood loss were retrospectively analyzed and a total of 8 different formulas for TBV estimation were applied. RESULTS: No statistical correlation between body weight and absolute blood loss was found for any of the tested TBV estimation algorithms. All cases showed a wide spread of both absolute and relative blood loss. DISCUSSION: The principle of relative blood loss is of very limited use in casework. It opens the forensic expert opinion to unnecessary criticism and possible negative legal implications. CONCLUSION: We challenge the use of relative blood loss benchmarks in textbooks and practical casework and advocate for its elimination from the ATLSⓇ 's grading system. If necessary, we recommend the use of BMI-adjusted algorithms for TBV estimation.

Prognostic performance of peripheral perfusion index and shock index combined with ESI to predict hospital outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Peripheral perfusion index (PPI) and shock index (SI) are considered valuable predictors of hospital outcome and mortality in various operative and intensive care settings. In the present study, we evaluated the prognostic capabilities of these parameters for performing emergency department (ED) triage, as represented by the emergency severity index (ESI). METHODS: This prospective cross-sectional study included 367 patients aged older than 18 years who visited the ED of a tertiary referral hospital. The ESI triage levels with PPI, SI, and other basic vital sign parameters were recorded for each patient. The hospital outcome of the patients at the end of the ED period, such as discharge, admission to the hospital and death were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 367 patients (M/F: 178/189) admitted to the ED were categorized according to ESI and included in the study. A decrease in diastolic BP, SpO2 and PPI increased the likelihood of hospitalization and 30-day mortality. Based on univariate analysis, a significant improvement in performance was found by using age, diastolic BP, mean arterial pressure, SpO2, SI and PPI in terms of predicting high acuity level patients (ESI < 3). In the multivariable analysis only SpO2 and PPI were found to predict ESI < 3 patients. CONCLUSION: Peripheral perfusion index and SI as novel triage instruments might provide useful information for predicting hospital admission and mortality in ED patients. The addition of these parameters to existing triage instruments such as ESI could enhance the triage specificity in unselected patients admitted to ED.

Pre-hospital modified shock index for prediction of massive transfusion and mortality in trauma patients.

BACKGROUND: Modified shock index (MSI) is a useful predictor in trauma patients. However, the value of prehospital MSI (preMSI) in trauma patients is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of preMSI in predicting massive transfusion (MT) and hospital mortality among trauma patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective, observational, single-center study. Patients presenting consecutively to the trauma center between January 2016 and December 2017, were included. The predictive ability of both prehospital shock index (preSI) and preMSI for MT and hospital mortality was assessed by calculating the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs). RESULTS: A total of 1007 patients were included. Seventy-eight (7.7%) patients received MT, and 30 (3.0%) patients died within 24 h of admission to the trauma center. The AUROCs for predicting MT with preSI and preMSI were 0.773 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.746-0.798) and 0.765 (95% CI, 0.738-0.791), respectively. The AUROCs for predicting 24-hour mortality with preSI and preMSI were 0.584 (95% CI, 0.553-0.615) and 0.581 (95% CI, 0.550-0.612), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PreSI and preMSI showed moderate accuracy in predicting MT. PreMSI did not have higher predictive power than preSI. Additionally, in predicting hospital mortality, preMSI was not superior to preSI.

Shock index as a predictor of hospital admission and inpatient mortality in a US national database of emergency departments.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: The shock index (SI), defined as the ratio of the heart rate (HR) to the systolic blood pressure (BP), is used as a prognostic tool in trauma and in specific disease states. However, there is scarcity of data about the utility of the SI in the general emergency department (ED)population. Our goal was to use a large national database of EDs in the United States (US) to determine whether the likelihood of inpatient mortality and hospital admission was associated with initial SI at presentation. METHODS: Data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey were retrospectively reviewed to obtain a weighted sample of all US ED visits between 2005 and 2010. All adults >18 years old who survived the ED visit were included, regardless of their chief complaint. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated for a range of SI values, in order to determine SI thresholds most predictive of hospital admission and inpatient mortality. +LRs >5 were considered to be clinically significant. RESULTS: A total of 526 455 251 adult patient encounters were included in the analysis. 56.9% were women, 73.9% were white and 53.2% were between the ages of 18 and 44 years. 88 326 638 (15.7%) unique ED visits resulted in hospital admission and 1 927 235 (2.6%) visits resulted in inpatient mortality. SI>1.3 was associated with a clinically significant increase in both the likelihood of hospital admission (+LR=6.64) and inpatient mortality (+LR=5.67). SI>0.7 and >0.9, the traditional cited cut-offs, were only associated with marginal increases (+LR= 1.13; 1.54 for SI>0.7 and +LR=1.95; 2.59 for SI>0.9 for hospital admission and inpatient mortality, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In this largest retrospective study to date on SI in the general ED population, we demonstrated that initial SI at presentation to the ED could potentially be useful in predicting the likelihood of hospital admission and inpatient mortality, which could help guide rapid and accurate acuity designation, resource allocation and disposition.

Shock subtypes by left ventricular ejection fraction following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: Post-resuscitation hemodynamic instability following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) may occur from myocardial dysfunction underlying cardiogenic shock and/or inflammation-mediated distributive shock. Distinguishing the predominant shock subtype with widely available clinical metrics may have prognostic and therapeutic value. METHODS: A two-hospital cohort was assembled of patients in shock following OHCA. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was assessed via echocardiography or cardiac ventriculography within 1 day post arrest and used to delineate shock physiology. The study evaluated whether higher LVEF, indicating distributive-predominant shock physiology, was associated with neurocognitive outcome (primary endpoint), survival, and duration of multiple organ failures. The study also investigated whether volume resuscitation exhibited a subtype-specific association with outcome. RESULTS: Of 162 patients with post-resuscitation shock, 48% had normal LVEF (> 40%), consistent with distributive shock physiology. Higher LVEF was associated with less favorable neurocognitive outcome (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58-0.94 per 10% increase in LVEF; p = 0.01). Higher LVEF also was associated with worse survival (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.67-0.97; p = 0.02) and fewer organ failure-free days (ß = - 0.67, 95% CI - 1.28 to - 0.06; p = 0.03). Only 51% of patients received a volume challenge of at least 30 ml/kg body weight in the first 6 h post arrest, and the volume received did not differ by LVEF. Greater volume resuscitation in the first 6 h post arrest was associated with favorable neurocognitive outcome (OR 1.59, 95% CI 0.99-2.55 per liter; p = 0.03) and survival (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.02-2.04; p = 0.02) among patients with normal LVEF but not low LVEF. CONCLUSIONS: In post-resuscitation shock, higher LVEF-indicating distributive shock physiology-was associated with less favorable neurocognitive outcome, fewer days without organ failure, and higher mortality. Greater early volume resuscitation was associated with more favorable neurocognitive outcome and survival in patients with this shock subtype. Additional studies with repeated measures of complementary hemodynamic parameters are warranted to validate the clinical utility for subtyping post-resuscitation shock.

Is the ATLS classification of hypovolaemic shock appreciated in daily trauma care? An online-survey among 383 ATLS course directors and instructors.

OBJECTIVE: For the early recognition and management of hypovolaemic shock, ATLS suggests four shock classes based upon an estimated blood loss in percent. The aim of this study was to assess the confidence and acceptance of the ATLS classification of hypovolaemic shock among ATLS course directors and instructors in daily trauma care. METHODS: During a 2-month period, ATLS course directors and instructors from the ATLS region XV (Europe) were invited to participate in an online survey comprising 15 questions. RESULTS: A total of 383 responses were received. Ninety-eight percent declared that they would follow the 'A, B, C, D, E' approach by ATLS in daily trauma care. However, only 48% assessed 'C-Circulation' according to the ATLS classification of hypovolaemic shock. One out of four respondents estimated that in daily clinical routine, less than 50% of all trauma patients can be classified according to the current ATLS classification of hypovolaemic shock. Additionally, only 10.9% considered the ATLS classification of hypovolaemic shock as a 'good guide' for fluid resuscitation and blood product transfusion, whereas 45.1% stated that this classification only 'may help' or has 'no impact' to guide resuscitation strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Although the 'A, B, C, D, E' approach according to ATLS is widely implemented in daily trauma care, the use of the ATLS classification of hypovolaemic shock in daily practice is limited. Together with previous analyses, this study supports the need for a critical reassessment of the current ATLS classification of hypovolaemic shock.

Validating a pragmatic definition of shock in adult patients presenting to the ED.

OBJECTIVE: The importance of the early recognition of shock in patients presenting to emergency departments is well recognized, but at present, there is no agreed practical definition for undifferentiated shock. The main aim of this study was to validate an a priori clinical definition of shock against 28-day mortality. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS: This prospective, observational, cross-sectional, single-center study was conducted in Hong Kong, China. Data were collected between July 1, 2012, and January 31, 2013. An a priori definition of shock was designed, whereby patients admitted to the resuscitation room or high dependency area of the emergency department were divided into 1 of 3 groups-no shock, possible shock, and shock. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality or admission to the intensive or coronary care unit. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 111 patients (mean age, 67.2 ± 17.1 years; male = 69 [62%]) were recruited, of which 22 were classified as no shock, 54 as possible shock, and 35 as shock. Systolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, lactate, and base deficit correlated well with shock classifications (P < .05). Patients who had 3 or more positively defined shock variables had a 100% poor composite outcome rate (5 of 5). Patients with 2 shock variables had a 66.7% (4 of 6) poor composite outcome rate. CONCLUSIONS: A simple, practical definition of undifferentiated shock has been proposed and validated in a group of patients presenting to an emergency department in Hong Kong. This definition needs further validation in a larger population and other settings.

Assessment of hypovolaemic shock at scene: is the PHTLS classification of hypovolaemic shock really valid?

OBJECTIVE: Validation of the classification of hypovolaemic shock suggested by the prehospital trauma life support (PHTLS) in its sixth student course manual. METHODS: Adults, entered into the TraumaRegister DGU(®) database between 2002 and 2011, were classified into reference ranges for heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and Glasgow coma scale (GCS) according to the PHTLS classification of hypovolaemic shock. First, patients were grouped by a combination of all three parameters (HR, SBP and GCS) as suggested by PHTLS. Second, patients were classified by only one parameter (HR, SBP or GCS) according to PHTLS and alterations in the remaining two parameters were assessed. Furthermore, subgroup analysis for trauma mechanism and traumatic brain injury (TBI) were performed. RESULTS: Out of 46 689 patients, only 12 432 (26.5%) could be adequately classified according to PHTLS if a combination of all three criteria was assessed. In TBI patients, only 12.2% could be classified adequately, whereas trauma mechanism had no significant influence. When patients were grouped by HR, there was only a slight reduction in SBP. When grouped by SBP, GCS dropped from 14 to 8, while no significant tachycardia was observed in any group. In patients with a GCS less than 12, HR was unaltered whereas SBP was slightly reduced to 114 (±42) mm Hg. On average, GCS in TBI patients was lower within all shock groups. In penetrating trauma patients, changes in HR and SBP were more distinct, but still less than predicted by PHTLS. CONCLUSIONS: The PHTLS classification of hypovolaemic shock displays substantial deficits in adequately risk-stratifying trauma patients.

Validation of the CREST model and comparison with SCAI shock classification for the prediction of circulatory death in resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

AIMS: We validated the CREST model, a 5 variable score for stratifying the risk of circulatory aetiology death (CED) following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and compared its discrimination with the SCAI shock classification. Circulatory aetiology death occurs in approximately a third of patients admitted after resuscitated OHCA. There is an urgent need for improved stratification of the patient with OHCA on arrival to a cardiac arrest centre to improve patient selection for invasive interventions. METHODS AND RESULTS: The CREST model and SCAI shock classification were applied to a dual-centre registry of 723 patients with cardiac aetiology OHCA, both with and without ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), between May 2012 and December 2020. The primary endpoint was a 30-day CED. Of 509 patients included (62.3 years, 75.4% male), 125 patients had CREST = 0 (24.5%), 162 had CREST = 1 (31.8%), 140 had CREST = 2 (27.5%), 75 had CREST = 3 (14.7%), 7 had a CREST of 4 (1.4%), and no patients had CREST = 5. Circulatory aetiology death was observed in 91 (17.9%) patients at 30 days [STEMI: 51/289 (17.6%); non-STEMI (NSTEMI): 40/220 (18.2%)]. For the total population, and both NSTEMI and STEMI subpopulations, an increasing CREST score was associated with increasing CED (all P < 0.001). The CREST score and SCAI classification had similar discrimination for the total population [area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) = 0.72/calibration slope = 0.95], NSTEMI cohort (AUC = 0.75/calibration slope = 0.940), and STEMI cohort (AUC = 0.69 and calibration slope = 0.925). Area under the receiver operating curve meta-analyses demonstrated no significant differences between the two classifications. CONCLUSION: The CREST model and SCAI shock classification show similar prediction results for the development of CED after OHCA.

Recognition of hypovolemic shock: using base deficit to think outside of the ATLS box.

Base deficit has frequently been utilized as an informal adjunct in the initial evaluation of trauma patients to assess the extent of their physiologic derangements. However, the current Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) classification system for hypovolemic shock does not include base-deficit measurements and relies primarily on alterations in vital signs (heart rate, systolic blood pressure) and mental status (Glasgow Coma Scale) to estimate blood loss. The authors of this paper propose that the current ATLS system may not accurately reflect the degree of hypovolemic shock in many patients and that base-deficit measurements should be used in its place. The proposed system showed a greater correlation with transfusion requirements, need for massive transfusion, and mortality when compared with the ATLS classification system. Based on these findings, base-deficit measurement should be strongly considered during the initial trauma evaluation to identify the presence of hypovolemic shock and to guide blood product administration.

Renaissance of base deficit for the initial assessment of trauma patients: a base deficit-based classification for hypovolemic shock developed on data from 16,305 patients derived from the TraumaRegister DGU®.

INTRODUCTION: The recognition and management of hypovolemic shock still remain an important task during initial trauma assessment. Recently, we have questioned the validity of the Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) classification of hypovolemic shock by demonstrating that the suggested combination of heart rate, systolic blood pressure and Glasgow Coma Scale displays substantial deficits in reflecting clinical reality. The aim of this study was to introduce and validate a new classification of hypovolemic shock based upon base deficit (BD) at emergency department (ED) arrival. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2010, 16,305 patients were retrieved from the TraumaRegister DGU® database, classified into four strata of worsening BD [class I (BD≤2 mmol/l), class II (BD>2.0 to 6.0 mmol/l), class III (BD>6.0 to 10 mmol/l) and class IV (BD>10 mmol/l)] and assessed for demographics, injury characteristics, transfusion requirements and fluid resuscitation. This new BD-based classification was validated to the current ATLS classification of hypovolemic shock. RESULTS: With worsening of BD, injury severity score (ISS) increased in a step-wise pattern from 19.1 (±11.9) in class I to 36.7 (±17.6) in class IV, while mortality increased in parallel from 7.4% to 51.5%. Decreasing hemoglobin and prothrombin ratios as well as the amount of transfusions and fluid resuscitation paralleled the increasing frequency of hypovolemic shock within the four classes. The number of blood units transfused increased from 1.5 (±5.9) in class I patients to 20.3 (±27.3) in class IV patients. Massive transfusion rates increased from 5% in class I to 52% in class IV. The new introduced BD-based classification of hypovolemic shock discriminated transfusion requirements, massive transfusion and mortality rates significantly better compared to the conventional ATLS classification of hypovolemic shock (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: BD may be superior to the current ATLS classification of hypovolemic shock in identifying the presence of hypovolemic shock and in risk stratifying patients in need of early blood product transfusion.

Shock: early recognition and resuscitation are key.

A life-threatening syndrome of circulatory failure, shock can be caused by loss of intravascular volume, obstruction of flow through the vascular compartment, or a generalized state of vasodilation. Early recognition and resuscitation are key to reducing patient mortality.

Emergency medical services shock index is the most accurate predictor of patient outcomes after blunt torso trauma.

INTRODUCTION: Shock index (SI) and delta shock index (∆SI) predict mortality and blood transfusion in trauma patients. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of SI and ∆SI in a rural environment with prolonged transport times and transfers from critical access hospitals or level IV trauma centers. METHODS: We completed a retrospective database review at an American College of Surgeons verified level 1 trauma center for 2 years. Adult subjects analyzed sustained torso trauma. Subjects with missing data or severe head trauma were excluded. For analysis, poisson regression and binomial logistic regression were used to study the effect of time in transport and SI/∆SI on resource utilization and outcomes. p < 0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS: Complete data were available on 549 scene patients and 127 transfers. Mean Injury Severity Score was 11 (interquartile range, 9.0) for scene and 13 (interquartile range, 6.5) for transfers. Initial emergency medical services SI was the most significant predictor for blood transfusion and intensive care unit care in both scene and transferred patients (p < 0.0001) compared with trauma center arrival SI or transferring center SI. A negative ∆SI was significantly associated with the need for transfusion and the number of units transfused. Longer transport time also had a significant relationship with increasing intensive care unit length of stay. Cohorts were analyzed separately. CONCLUSION: Providers must maintain a high level of clinical suspicion for patients who had an initially elevated SI. Emergency medical services SI was the greatest predictor of injury and need for resources. Enroute SI and ∆SI were less predictive as time from injury increased. This highlights the improvements in en route care but does not eliminate the need for high-level trauma intervention. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic/care management, level IV.

Kawasaki Disease and Kawasaki Disease Shock Syndrome Hospitalization Rates in the United States, 2006-2018.

BACKGROUND: Kawasaki disease (KD) is a febrile illness of unknown etiology. Patients with Kawasaki disease shock syndrome (KDSS) may present with clinical signs of poor perfusion and systolic hypotension in addition to typical KD features. The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzes and interprets large hospitalization databases as a mechanism for conducting national KD surveillance. METHODS: The Kids' Inpatient Database (KID), the National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample (NIS), and the IBM MarketScan Commercial (MSC) and MarketScan Medicaid (MSM) databases were analyzed to determine KD-associated hospitalization rates and trends from 2006 to the most recent year of available data. KD and potential KDSS hospitalizations were defined using International Classification of Disease-Clinical Modification codes. RESULTS: For the most recent year, the KD-associated hospitalization rates for children <5 years of age were 19.8 (95% CI: 17.2-22.3, KID: 2016), 19.6 (95% CI: 16.8-22.4, NIS: 2017), 19.3 (MSC: 2018), and 18.4 (MSM: 2018) per 100,000. There was no indication of an increase in KD rates over the time period. Rates of potential KDSS among children <18 years of age, ranging from 0.0 to 0.7 per 100,000, increased; coding indicated potential KDSS for approximately 2.8%-5.3% of KD hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses of these large, national databases produced consistent KD-associated hospitalization rates, with no increase over time detected; however, the percentage of KD hospitalizations with potential KDSS increased. Given reports of increasing incidence elsewhere and the recent identification of a novel virus-associated syndrome with possible Kawasaki-like features, continued national surveillance is important to detect changes in disease epidemiology.