Impact of Longitudinal Alcohol Use Patterns on Long-Term Risk of Cirrhosis Among US Veterans With Steatotic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Conflicting data exist on the impact of alcohol use on risk of liver disease progression in patients with steatotic liver disease. We aimed to evaluate the effect of longitudinal alcohol use on risk of cirrhosis among veterans with steatotic liver disease. METHODS: US veterans with steatotic liver disease were identified from January 2010 through December 2022. Alcohol use was assessed using documented Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Concise (AUDIT-C) scores and categorized as no alcohol (AUDIT-C = 0), low-risk alcohol use (AUDIT-C 1-2 for women and 1-3 for men), and high-risk alcohol (AUDIT-C ≥ 3 for women and ≥ 4 for men). Incidence of cirrhosis was evaluated with competing risks Nelson-Aalen methods. Adjusted multivariable regression models evaluated risks of cirrhosis associated with baseline alcohol use and changes in alcohol use during follow-up. RESULTS: There were 1,156,189 veterans with steatotic liver disease identified (54.2% no alcohol, 34.6% low-risk alcohol, and 11.2% high-risk alcohol). Veterans with steatotic liver disease and high-risk alcohol have a 43% higher incidence of cirrhosis compared with patients reporting no alcohol use. Compared with patients with baseline high-risk alcohol who reported no change in alcohol use, those who decreased their alcohol use during follow-up experienced a 39% reduction in long-term risk of cirrhosis (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.45-0.83; P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: One in 9 veterans with steatotic liver disease report concurrent high-risk alcohol use, which is associated with 43% greater risk of cirrhosis compared with no alcohol use. However, reducing alcohol use lowers risk of cirrhosis, emphasizing the importance of timely alcohol use assessment and early interventions to address high-risk alcohol use in steatotic liver disease.

Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fibrosis 5 (MAF-5) Score Predicts Liver Fibrosis Risk and Outcome in the General Population With Metabolic Dysfunction.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is an unmet need for noninvasive tests to improve case-finding and aid primary care professionals in referring patients at high risk of liver disease. METHODS: A metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis (MAF-5) score was developed and externally validated in a total of 21,797 individuals with metabolic dysfunction in population-based (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, and Rotterdam Study) and hospital-based (from Antwerp and Bogota) cohorts. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was compared with FIB-4, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), LiverRisk score and steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE). MAF-5 was externally validated with liver stiffness measurement ≥8.0 kPa, with shear-wave elastography ≥7.5 kPa, and biopsy-proven steatotic liver disease according to Metavir and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scores, and was tested for prognostic performance (all-cause mortality). RESULTS: The MAF-5 score comprised waist circumference, body mass index (calculated as kg / m2), diabetes, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets. With this score, 60.9% was predicted at low, 14.1% at intermediate, and 24.9% at high risk of fibrosis. The observed prevalence was 3.3%, 7.9%, and 28.1%, respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve of MAF-5 (0.81) was significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.61), and outperformed the FIB-4 among young people (negative predictive value [NPV], 99%; area under the curve [AUC], 0.86 vs NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.51) and older adults (NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.75 vs NPV, 88%; AUC, 0.55). MAF-5 showed excellent performance to detect liver stiffness measurement ≥12 kPa (AUC, 0.86 training; AUC, 0.85 validation) and good performance in detecting liver stiffness and biopsy-proven liver fibrosis among the external validation cohorts. MAF-5 score >1 was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in (un)adjusted models (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.47-1.73). CONCLUSIONS: The MAF-5 score is a validated, age-independent, inexpensive referral tool to identify individuals at high risk of liver fibrosis and all-cause mortality in primary care populations, using simple variables.

National prevalence estimates for steatotic liver disease and subclassifications using consensus nomenclature.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The multisociety consensus nomenclature has renamed NAFLD to steatotic liver disease (SLD) with various subclassifications. There is a paucity of data regarding how the new nomenclature modifies our understanding of disease prevalence and patient phenotypes. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from January 2017 to March 2020, we included all participants aged 18 years or above with complete vibration-controlled transient elastography measures. SLD and its subclassifications [metabolic dysfunction-associated SLD (MASLD), MASLD + increased alcohol intake (MetALD), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), etiology-specific/cryptogenic] were defined according to consensus nomenclature. National SLD prevalence and subclassifications were estimated, and among key subgroups [age, sex, race/ethnicity, advanced liver fibrosis (liver stiffness measurement [LSM] ≥11.7 kPa)]. Among 7367 participants, 2549 had SLD (mean age 51 y, 57.7% male, 63.2% non-Hispanic White). The estimated prevalence of SLD was 34.2% (95% CI 31.9%-36.5%): MASLD 31.3% (29.2%-33.4%), MetALD 2% (1.6%-2.9%), ALD 0.7% (0.5-0.9%), etiology-specific/cryptogenic 0.03% (0.01%-0.08%). In exploratory analyses, participants classified as non-SLD with (vs. without) advanced fibrosis had a higher mean number of metabolic risk factors [2.7 (2.3-3.1) vs. 2.0 (1.9-2.0)] and a higher proportion with average alcohol use ≥20 g/d (women)/≥30 g/d (men) [20.9% (6.2%-51.3%) vs. 7.2% (6.1%-8.4%)]. In another exploratory analysis, increasing quantities of alcohol use remaining below the threshold for MASLD + increased alcohol intake were associated with advanced liver fibrosis in men, but not women. There was 99% overlap in cases of NAFLD and MASLD. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the utility of the new consensus nomenclature to address deficiencies present with the old nomenclature, and identify areas that require research to further refine classifications of SLD.

The clinical and financial burden of nonhepatocellular carcinoma focal lesions detected during the surveillance of patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HCC surveillance is challenged by the detection of hepatic focal lesions (HFLs) of other types. This study aimed to describe the incidence, characteristics, outcomes, and costs of non-HCC HFL detected during surveillance. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We retrospectively analyzed nonstandardized workup performed in French patients included in HCC surveillance programs recruited in 57 French tertiary centers (ANRS CirVir and CIRRAL cohorts, HCC 2000 trial). The overall cost of workup was evaluated, with an estimation of an average cost per patient for the entire population and per lesion detected. A total of 3295 patients were followed up for 59.8 months, 391 (11.9%) patients developed HCCs (5-year incidence: 12.1%), and 633 (19.2%) developed non-HCC HFLs (5-year incidence: 21.8%). Characterization of non-HCC HFL required a median additional of 0.7 exams per year. A total of 11.8% of non-HCC HFLs were not confirmed on recall procedures, and 19.6% of non-HCC HFLs remained undetermined. A definite diagnosis of benign liver lesions was made in 65.1%, and malignant tumors were diagnosed in 3.5%. The survival of patients with benign or undetermined non-HCC HFL was similar to that of patients who never developed any HFL (5-year survival 92% vs. 88%, p = 0.07). The average cost of the diagnostic workup was 1087€ for non-HCC HFL and €1572 for HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Non-HCC HFLs are frequently detected in patients with cirrhosis, and do not impact prognosis, but trigger substantial costs. This burden must be considered in cost-effectiveness analyses of future personalized surveillance strategies.

Prevalence and characteristics of hepatitis delta virus infection in patients with hepatitis B in the United States: An analysis of the All-Payer Claims Database.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HDV leads to the most severe form of viral hepatitis; however, the prevalence of HDV is not well understood. Using real-world data from the All-Payer Claims Database, this study estimates the prevalence of HBV/HDV infection among the chronic HBV population and describes patient/clinical characteristics for adults with HBV/HDV infection in the United States. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Adults (≥18 years) with ≥1 inpatient claim or ≥2 outpatient claims for HDV infection or HBV in the All-Payer Claims Database from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020, were identified. HDV prevalence was calculated as the proportion of patients with HBV/HDV infection among total patients with HBV infection. Patient characteristics, socioeconomic status, advanced liver complications (eg, cirrhosis, HCC), and comorbidities were assessed. A total of 6719 patients were diagnosed with HBV/HDV among 144,975 with HBV and 12 months of continuous data, for a prevalence of 4.6%. At diagnosis, 31.7% of patients with HBV/HDV had advanced liver complications, including compensated cirrhosis (16.3%) and decompensated cirrhosis (10.4%). Diabetes (50.5%), hypertension (49.8%), and HIV infection (30.9%) were the top 3 comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: In a large database capturing approximately 80% of the US-insured population, HBV/HDV infection prevalence was 4.6% among adults infected with HBV. Patients infected with HDV had high rates of baseline liver complications and other comorbidities at the time of diagnosis, suggesting potentially delayed diagnosis and/or treatment. Earlier identification of HBV/HDV infection among the population with HBV may provide opportunities to improve linkage to care and treatment, thereby reducing the risk of liver-related morbidity and mortality.

Combined use of the CLivD score and FIB-4 for prediction of liver-related outcomes in the population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A need exists for effective and practical tools to identify individuals at increased risk of liver-related outcomes (LROs) within the general population. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We externally validated the chronic liver disease (CLivD) score for LROs in the UK Biobank cohort. We also investigated the sequential combined use of CLivD and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores. Our analysis included 369,832 adults without baseline liver disease and with available data for CLivD and FIB-4 computation. LROs reflecting compensated or decompensated liver cirrhosis or HCC were ascertained through linkages with electronic health care registries. Discriminatory performance and cumulative incidence were evaluated with competing-risk methodologies. Over a 10-year follow-up, time-dependent AUC values for LRO prediction were 0.80 for CLivD lab (including gamma-glutamyltransferase), 0.72 for CLivD non-lab (excluding laboratory values), and 0.75 for FIB-4. CLivD lab demonstrated AUC values exceeding 0.85 for liver-related death and severe alcohol-associated liver outcomes. The predictive performance of FIB-4 increased with rising CLivD scores; 10-year FIB-4 AUC values ranged from 0.60 within the minimal-risk CLivD subgroup to 0.81 within the high-risk CLivD subgroup. Moreover, in the minimal-risk CLivD subgroup, the cumulative incidence of LRO varied from 0.05% to 0.3% across low-to-high FIB-4 strata. In contrast, within the high-risk CLivD subgroup, the corresponding incidence ranged from 1.7% to 21.1% (up to 33% in individuals with FIB-4 >3.25). CONCLUSIONS: The CLivD score is a valid tool for LRO risk assessment and improves the predictive performance of FIB-4. The combined use of CLivD and FIB-4 identified a subgroup where 1 in 3 individuals developed LROs within 10 years.

A modified Hospital Frailty Risk Score for patients with cirrhosis undergoing abdominal operations.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Existing tools for perioperative risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis do not incorporate measures of comorbidity. The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) is a widely used measure of comorbidity burden in administrative dataset analyses. However, it is not specific to patients with cirrhosis, and application of this index is limited by its complexity. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Adult patients with cirrhosis who underwent nontransplant abdominal operations were identified from the National Inpatient Sample, 2016-2018. Adjusted associations between HFRS and in-hospital mortality and length of stay were computed with logistic and Poisson regression. Lasso regularization was used to identify the components of the HFRS most predictive of mortality and develop a simplified index, the cirrhosis-HFRS. Of 10,714 patients with cirrhosis, the majority were male, the median age was 62 years, and 32% of operations were performed electively. HFRS was associated with an increased risk of both in-hospital mortality (OR=6.42; 95% CI: 4.93, 8.36) and length of stay (incidence rate ratio [IRR]=1.79; 95% CI: 1.72, 1.88), with adjustment. Using lasso, we found that a subset of 12 of the 109 ICD-10 codes within the HFRS resulted in superior prediction of mortality in this patient population (AUC = 0.89 vs. 0.79, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: While the 109-component HFRS was associated with adverse surgical outcomes, 12 components accounted for much of the association between the HFRS and mortality. We developed the cirrhosis-HFRS, a tool that demonstrates superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital mortality and more precisely reflects the specific comorbidity pattern of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis undergoing general surgery procedures.

Prevalence, distribution, and hepatic fibrosis burden of the different subtypes of steatotic liver disease in primary care settings.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In relation to the new umbrella terminology for steatotic liver disease (SLD), we aimed to elucidate the prevalence, distribution, and clinical characteristics of the SLD subgroups in the primary care setting. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We retrospectively collected data from 2535 individuals who underwent magnetic resonance elastography and MRI proton density fat fraction during health checkups in 5 primary care health promotion clinics. We evaluated the presence of cardiometabolic risk factors according to predefined criteria and divided all the participants according to the new SLD classification. The prevalence of SLD was 39.13% in the total cohort, and 95.77% of the SLD cases had metabolic dysfunction (one or more cardiometabolic risk factors). The prevalence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) was 29.51%, with those of metabolic dysfunction and alcohol associated steatotic liver disease (MetALD) and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) at 7.89% and 0.39%, respectively. According to the old criteria, the prevalence of NAFLD was 29.11%, and 95.80% of the NAFLD cases fulfilled the new criteria for MASLD. The distribution of SLD subtypes was highest for MASLD, at 75.40%, followed by MetALD at 20.06%, cryptogenic SLD at 3.33%, and ALD at 1.01%. The MetALD group had a significantly higher mean magnetic resonance elastography than the MASLD or ALD group. CONCLUSION: Almost all the patients with NAFLD met the new criteria for MASLD. The fibrosis burden of the MetALD group was higher than those of the MASLD and ALD groups.

Surveillance of the liver in type 2 diabetes: important but unfeasible?

Fatty liver plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. According to an updated classification, any individual with liver steatosis and one or more features of the metabolic syndrome, without excess alcohol consumption or other known causes of steatosis, has metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Up to 60-70% of all individuals with type 2 diabetes have MASLD. However, the prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis in type 2 diabetes remains uncertain, with reported estimates of 10-20% relying on imaging tests and likely overestimating the true prevalence. All stages of MASLD impact prognosis but fibrosis is the best predictor of all-cause and liver-related mortality risk. People with type 2 diabetes face a two- to threefold increase in the risk of liver-related death and hepatocellular carcinoma, with 1.3% progressing to severe liver disease over 7.7 years. Because reliable methods for detecting steatosis are lacking, MASLD mostly remains an incidental finding on imaging. Regardless, several medical societies advocate for universal screening of individuals with type 2 diabetes for advanced fibrosis. Proposed screening pathways involve annual calculation of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, followed by a secondary test such as transient elastography (TE) for intermediate-to-high-risk individuals. However, owing to unsatisfactory biomarker specificity, these pathways are expected to channel approximately 40% of all individuals with type 2 diabetes to TE and 20% to tertiary care, with a false discovery rate of up to 80%, raising concerns about feasibility. There is thus an urgent need to develop more effective strategies for surveying the liver in type 2 diabetes. Nonetheless, weight loss through lifestyle changes, pharmacotherapy or bariatric surgery remains the cornerstone of management, proving highly effective not only for metabolic comorbidities but also for MASLD. Emerging evidence suggests that fibrosis biomarkers may serve as tools for risk-based targeting of weight-loss interventions and potentially for monitoring response to therapy.

A new clinical and prognostic characterization of the patterns of decompensation of cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic impact of acute decompensation (AD), i.e. the development of complications that require hospitalization, has recently been assessed. However, complications of cirrhosis do not necessarily require hospitalization and can develop progressively, as in the recently defined non-acute decompensation (NAD). Nevertheless, there is no data regarding the incidence and prognostic impact of NAD. The aim of the study was to evaluate the incidence and the prognostic impact of NAD and AD in outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 617 outpatients with cirrhosis from two Italian tertiary centers (Padua and Milan) were enrolled from January 2003 to June 2021 and followed prospectively until the end of the study, death or liver transplantation. The complications registered during follow-up were considered as AD if they required hospitalization, or NAD if managed at the outpatient clinic. RESULTS: During follow-up, 154 patients (25.0% of total patients) developed complications, 69 patients (44.8%) developed NAD and 85 (55.2%) developed AD, while 29 patients with NAD (42.0%) developed a further episode of AD during follow-up. Sixty-month survival was significantly higher in patients with no decompensation than in patients with NAD or AD. On multivariable analysis, AD (hazard ratio [HR] 21.07, p <0.001), NAD (HR 7.13, p <0.001), the etiological cure of cirrhosis (HR 0.38, p <0.001) and model for end-stage liver disease score (HR 1.12, p = 0.003) were found to be independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The first decompensation is non-acute in almost 50% of outpatients, though such events are still associated with decreased survival compared to no decompensation. Patients who develop NAD must be treated with extreme care and monitored closely to prevent the development of AD. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This multicenter study is the first to investigate the role of non-acute decompensation (NAD) in patients with cirrhosis. In fact, while the unfavorable impact of acute decompensation is well known, there is currently a dearth of evidence on NAD, despite it being a common occurrence in clinical practice. Our data show that almost half of decompensations in patients with cirrhosis can be considered NAD and that such events are associated with a higher risk of mortality than no decompensation. This study has important clinical implications because it highlights the need to carefully consider patients who develop NAD, in order to prevent further decompensation and reduce mortality.

Primary hypocholesterolemia is associated with an increased risk of hepatic complications in the general population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Beyond cardiovascular disease protection, the health consequences of very low concentrations of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) remain a matter of debate. In primary hypobetalipoproteinemia (HBL), liver steatosis and cirrhosis have occasionally been reported. Here, we aimed to investigate the association between HBL and the risk of hepatic complications (cirrhosis complications and/or primary liver cancer) in the general population. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted in the French population-based cohort CONSTANCES. Participants with primary HBL (LDL-C <5th percentile for age and sex, [HBL]) were compared with those with normal LDL-C concentrations (40th-60th percentile, [Control]). Participants on lipid-lowering therapies were excluded. For hepatic complications, follow-up events were compared by calculating the incidence density ratio (IDR). The same analyses were replicated in the UK Biobank (UKBB) cohort. RESULTS: In the CONSTANCES and UKBB cohorts, 34,653 and 94,666 patients were analyzed, with median ages of 45 and 56 years, mean LDL-C concentrations (HBL vs. control) of 71 vs. 128 mg/dl and 86 vs. 142 mg/dl, and mean follow-up durations of 5.0 and 11.5 years, respectively. The HBL group presented a higher incidence of hepatic complications than the control group: 0.32/ vs. 0.07/1,000 person-years (IDR = 4.50, 95% CI 1.91-10.6) in CONSTANCES, and 0.69/ vs. 0.21/1,000 person-years (IDR = 3.27, 95% CI 2.63-4.06) in the UKBB. This risk proved to be independent of classic risk factors for liver disease (obesity, alcohol consumption, diabetes, viral hepatitis), including in a 5-year landmark analysis excluding early events. Sensitivity analyses based on apoliprotein-B levels (instead of LDL-C levels) or genetically defined HBL showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: HBL is associated with a markedly increased risk of hepatic complications. HBL must be considered as a substantial independent risk factor for liver diseases which justifies specific prevention and screening. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Hypobetalipoproteinemia (HBL) is a lipid disorder characterized by permanent, inherited low levels (below the 5th percentile) of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. While HBL is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events, some studies suggest that it may be associated with a potential risk of hepatic steatosis and hepatic complications. Here, we studied the association between HBL and hepatic complications (defined as cirrhosis complications and/or primary liver cancer) in two populations of several hundred thousand people, both in France (CONSTANCES cohort) and the United Kingdom (UKBB). The results show that HBL is associated with a significant and independent excess risk of hepatic complications, including primary liver cancer. Thus, in people with HBL, the value of regular liver monitoring must be studied.

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with autoimmune hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a rare chronic liver disease of unknown aetiology; the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear and risk factors are not well-defined. We aimed to investigate the risk of HCC across a multicentre AIH cohort and to identify predictive factors. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, observational, multicentric study of patients included in the International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group Retrospective Registry. The assessed clinical outcomes were HCC development, liver transplantation, and death. Fine and Gray regression analysis stratified by centre was applied to determine the effects of individual covariates; the cumulative incidence of HCC was estimated using the competing risk method with death as a competing risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,428 patients diagnosed with AIH from 1980 to 2020 from 22 eligible centres across Europe and Canada were included, with a median follow-up of 11.1 years (interquartile range 5.2-15.9). Two hundred and ninety-three (20.5%) patients had cirrhosis at diagnosis. During follow-up, 24 patients developed HCC (1.7%), an incidence rate of 1.44 cases/1,000 patient-years; the cumulative incidence of HCC increased over time (0.6% at 5 years, 0.9% at 10 years, 2.7% at 20 years, and 6.6% at 30 years of follow-up). Patients who developed cirrhosis during follow-up had a significantly higher incidence of HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 2.6%, 4.6%, 5.6% and 6.6% at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years after the development of cirrhosis, respectively. Obesity (hazard ratio [HR] 2.94, p = 0.04), cirrhosis (HR 3.17, p = 0.01), and AIH/PSC variant syndrome (HR 5.18, p = 0.007) at baseline were independent risk factors for HCC development. CONCLUSIONS: HCC incidence in AIH is low even after cirrhosis development and is associated with risk factors including obesity, cirrhosis, and AIH/PSC variant syndrome. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in individuals with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) seems to be lower than for other aetiologies of chronic liver disease. Yet, solid data for this specific patient group remain elusive, given that most of the existing evidence comes from small, single-centre studies. In our study, we found that HCC incidence in patients with AIH is low even after the onset of cirrhosis. Additionally, factors such as advanced age, obesity, cirrhosis, alcohol consumption, and the presence of the AIH/PSC variant syndrome at the time of AIH diagnosis are linked to a higher risk of HCC. Based on these findings, there seems to be merit in adopting a specialized HCC monitoring programme for patients with AIH based on their individual risk factors.

Post-treatment LSM rather than change during treatment predicts decompensation in patients with cACLD after HCV cure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Baveno VII has defined a clinically significant (i.e., prognostically meaningful) decrease in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in cACLD as a decrease of ≥20% associated with a final LSM <20 kPa or any decrease to <10 kPa. However, these rules have not yet been validated against direct clinical endpoints. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed patients with cACLD (LSM ≥10 kPa) with paired liver stiffness measurement (LSM) before (BL) and after (FU) HCV cure by interferon-free therapies from 15 European centres. The cumulative incidence of hepatic decompensation was compared according to these criteria, considering hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing risks. RESULTS: A total of 2,335 patients followed for a median of 6 years were analysed. Median BL-LSM was 16.6 kPa with 37.1% having ≥20 kPa. After HCV cure, FU-LSM decreased to a median of 10.9 kPa (<10 kPa: 1,002 [42.9%], ≥20 kPa: 465 [19.9%]) translating into a median LSM change of -5.3 (-8.8 to -2.4) kPa corresponding to -33.9 (-48.0 to -15.9) %. Patients achieving a clinically significant decrease (65.4%) had a significantly lower risk of hepatic decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio: 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.35, p <0.001). However, these risk differences were primarily driven by a negligible risk in patients with FU-LSM <10 kPa (5-year cumulative incidence: 0.3%) compared to a high risk in patients with FU-LSM ≥20 kPa (16.6%). Patients with FU-LSM 10-19.9 kPa (37.4%) also had a low risk of hepatic decompensation (5-year cumulative incidence: 1.7%), and importantly, the risk of hepatic decompensation did not differ between those with/without an LSM decrease of ≥20% (p = 0.550). CONCLUSIONS: FU-LSM is key for risk stratification after HCV cure and should guide clinical decision making. LSM dynamics do not hold significant prognostic information in patients with FU-LSM 10-19.9 kPa, and thus, their consideration is not of sufficient incremental value in the specific context of HCV cure. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is increasingly applied as a prognostic biomarker and commonly decreases in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease achieving HCV cure. Although Baveno VII proposed criteria for a clinically significant decrease, little is known about the prognostic utility of LSM dynamics (changes through antiviral therapy). Interestingly, in those with a post-treatment LSM of 10-19.9 kPa, LSM dynamics did not provide incremental information, arguing against the consideration of LSM dynamics as prognostic criteria. Thus, post-treatment LSM should guide the management of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease achieving HCV cure.

Genetic risk accentuates dietary effects on hepatic steatosis, inflammation and fibrosis in a population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Steatotic liver disease (SLD), characterized by elevated liver fat content (LFC), is influenced by genetics and diet. However, whether diet has a differential effect based on genetic risk is not well-characterized. We aimed to determine how genetic factors interact with diet to affect SLD in a large national biobank. METHODS: We included UK Biobank participants with dietary intake measured by 24-hour recall and genotyping. The primary predictors were dietary pattern, PNPLA3-rs738409-G, TM6SF2-rs58542926-T, a 16-variant hepatic steatosis polygenic risk score (PRS), and gene-environment interactions. The primary outcome was LFC, and secondary outcomes were iron-controlled T1 time (cT1, a measure of liver inflammation and fibrosis) and liver-related events/mortality. RESULTS: A total of 21,619 participants met inclusion criteria. In non-interaction models, Mediterranean diet and intake of fruit/vegetables/legumes and fish associated with lower LFC, while higher red/processed meat intake and all genetic predictors associated with higher LFC. In interaction models, all genetic predictors interacted with Mediterranean diet and fruit/vegetable/legume intake, while the steatosis PRS interacted with fish intake and the TM6SF2 genotype interacted with red/processed meat intake, to affect LFC. Dietary effects on LFC were up to 3.8-fold higher in PNPLA3-rs738409-GG vs. -CC individuals, and 1.4-3.0-fold higher in the top vs. bottom quartile of the steatosis PRS. Gene-diet interactions were stronger in participants with vs. without overweight. The steatosis PRS interacted with Mediterranean diet and fruit/vegetable/legume intake to affect cT1 and most dietary and genetic predictors associated with risk of liver-related events or mortality by age 70. CONCLUSIONS: Effects of diet on LFC and cT1 were markedly accentuated in patients at increased genetic risk for SLD, implying dietary interventions may be more impactful in these populations. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Genetic variants and diet both influence risk of hepatic steatosis, inflammation/fibrosis, and hepatic decompensation; however, how gene-diet interactions influence these outcomes has previously not been comprehensively characterized. We investigated this topic in the community-based UK Biobank and found that genetic risk and dietary quality interacted to influence hepatic steatosis and inflammation/fibrosis on liver MRI, so that the effects of diet were greater in people at elevated genetic risk. These results are relevant for patients and medical providers because they show that genetic risk is not fixed (i.e. modifiable factors can mitigate or exacerbate this risk) and realistic dietary changes may result in meaningful improvement in liver steatosis and inflammation/fibrosis. As genotyping becomes more routinely used in clinical practice, patients identified to be at high baseline genetic risk may benefit even more from intensive dietary counseling than those at lower risk, though future prospective studies are required.

Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Global Epidemiology and Genetics of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading cancers worldwide. Classically, HCC develops in genetically susceptible individuals who are exposed to risk factors, especially in the presence of liver cirrhosis. Significant temporal and geographic variations exist for HCC and its etiologies. Over time, the burden of HCC has shifted from the low-moderate to the high sociodemographic index regions, reflecting the transition from viral to nonviral causes. Geographically, the hepatitis viruses predominate as the causes of HCC in Asia and Africa. Although there are genetic conditions that confer increased risk for HCC, these diagnoses are rarely recognized outside North America and Europe. In this review, we will evaluate the epidemiologic trends and risk factors of HCC, and discuss the genetics of HCC, including monogenic diseases, single-nucleotide polymorphisms, gut microbiome, and somatic mutations.

Misclassified Alcohol-related Liver Disease is Common in Presumed Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease and Highly Increases Risk for Future Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol overconsumption is a risk factor for disease progression in patients with presumed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). How commonly this occurs and how it affects progression to major adverse liver outcomes (MALOs) is not well known. METHODS: We did a register-based cohort study, including all patients with a diagnosis of MASLD in Sweden between 1987 and 2020. Patients were stratified on co-occurrence of diagnoses of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) or alcohol use disorder (AUD) prior to MASLD diagnosis. Incident MALOs were derived from national registers. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident MALO. RESULTS: A total of 15,107 patients with MASLD were identified. The median age was 55 years, and 52% were female. Of the patients, 1843 (12%) had a prior diagnosis of ALD or AUD. During follow-up, a further 787 patients (5.2%) received a diagnosis of ALD or AUD. Patients with previous ALD or AUD diagnoses at or before baseline had considerably higher rates of MALOs compared with patients without (19.5% vs 7.8%; adjusted HR, 3.12; 95% confidence interval, 2.74-3.55). Acquiring an ALD or AUD diagnosis after MASLD diagnosis was associated with higher rates of MALOs (adjusted HR, 5.81; 95% confidence interval, 4.90-6.88). CONCLUSIONS: ALD or AUD is commonly diagnosed prior to or after MASLD diagnosis. Such patients have considerably higher rates of progression to MALOs. Correctly separating between MASLD and ALD is vital to assess prognosis.

PNPLA3 Genotype and Diabetes Identify Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease at High Risk of Incident Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can progress to cirrhosis and hepatic decompensation, but whether genetic variants influence the rate of progression to cirrhosis or are useful in risk stratification among patients with NAFLD is uncertain. METHODS: We included participants from 2 independent cohorts, they Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI) and UK Biobank (UKBB), who had NAFLD defined by elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels in the absence of alternative chronic liver disease. The primary predictors were genetic variants and metabolic comorbidities associated with cirrhosis. We conducted time-to-event analyses using Fine-Gray competing risk models. RESULTS: We included 7893 and 46,880 participants from MGI and UKBB, respectively. In univariable analysis, PNPLA3-rs738409-GG genotype, diabetes, obesity, and ALT of ≥2× upper limit of normal were associated with higher incidence rate of cirrhosis in both MGI and UKBB. PNPLA3-rs738409-GG had additive effects with clinical risk factors including diabetes, obesity, and ALT elevations. Among patients with indeterminate fibrosis-4 (FIB4) scores (1.3-2.67), those with diabetes and PNPLA3-rs738409-GG genotype had an incidence rate of cirrhosis comparable to that of patients with high-risk FIB4 scores (>2.67) and 2.9-4.8 times that of patients with diabetes but CC/CG genotypes. In contrast, FIB4 <1.3 was associated with an incidence rate of cirrhosis significantly lower than that of FIB4 of >2.67, even in the presence of clinical risk factors and high-risk PNPLA3 genotype. CONCLUSIONS: PNPLA3-rs738409 genotype and diabetes identified patients with NAFLD currently considered indeterminate risk (FIB4 1.3-2.67) who had a similar risk of cirrhosis as those considered high-risk (FIB4 >2.67). PNPLA3 genotyping may improve prognostication and allow for prioritization of intensive intervention.

Statins Are Associated With a Decreased Risk of Severe Liver Disease in Individuals With Noncirrhotic Chronic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little is known about the potential impact of statins on the progression of noncirrhotic chronic liver diseases (CLDs) to severe liver disease. METHODS: Using liver histopathology data in a nationwide Swedish cohort, we identified 3862 noncirrhotic individuals with CLD and statin exposure, defined as a statin prescription filled for 30 or more cumulative defined daily doses. Statin users were matched to 3862 (statin) nonusers with CLD through direct 1:1 matching followed by propensity score matching. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome of incident severe liver disease (a composite of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation/liver-related mortality). RESULTS: A total of 45.3% of CLD patients had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 21.9% had alcohol-related liver disease, 17.7% had viral hepatitis, and 15.1% had autoimmune hepatitis. During follow-up evaluation, 234 (6.1%) statin users vs 276 (7.1%) nonusers developed severe liver disease. Statin use was associated with a decreased risk of developing severe liver disease (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.48-0.74). Statistically significantly lower rates of severe liver disease were seen in alcohol-related liver disease (HR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.49) and in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.45-1.00), but not in viral hepatitis (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.51-1.14) or autoimmune hepatitis (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.48-1.58). Statin use had a protective association in both prefibrosis and fibrosis stages at diagnosis. Statin use was associated with lower rates of progression to cirrhosis (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.27-0.71), and liver-related mortality (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals with noncirrhotic CLD, incident statin use was linked to lower rates of severe liver disease, suggesting a potential disease-modifying role.

Prevalence of Liver Steatosis and Fibrosis in the General Population and Various High-Risk Populations: A Nationwide Study With 5.7 Million Adults in China.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of liver steatosis and fibrosis in the general population and populations with potential risk factors in China, so as to inform policies for the screening and management of fatty liver disease and liver fibrosis in general and high-risk populations. METHODS: This cross-sectional, population-based, nationwide study was based on the database of the largest health check-up chain in China. Adults from 30 provinces who underwent a check-up between 2017 and 2022 were included. Steatosis and fibrosis were assessed and graded by transient elastography. Overall and stratified prevalence was estimated among the general population and various subpopulations with demographic, cardiovascular, and chronic liver disease risk factors. A mixed effect regression model was used to examine predictors independently associated with steatosis and fibrosis. RESULTS: In 5,757,335 participants, the prevalence of steatosis, severe steatosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis was 44.39%, 10.57%, 2.85%, and 0.87%, respectively. Participants who were male, with obesity, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome, or elevated alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase had a significantly higher prevalence of all grades of steatosis and fibrosis, and those with fatty liver, decreased albumin or platelet count, and hepatitis B virus infection also had a significantly higher prevalence of fibrosis than their healthy counterparts. Most cardiovascular and chronic liver disease risk factors were independent predictors for steatosis and fibrosis, except for dyslipidemia for fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial burden of liver steatosis and fibrosis was found in China. Our study provides evidence for shaping future pathways for screening and risk stratification of liver steatosis and fibrosis in the general population. The findings of this study highlight that fatty liver and liver fibrosis should be included in disease management programs as targets for screening and regular monitoring in high-risk populations, especially in those with diabetes.