Tomoelastography and Pancreatic Extracellular Volume Fraction Derived From MRI for Predicting Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic stiffness and extracellular volume fraction (ECV) are potential imaging biomarkers for pancreatic fibrosis. Clinically relevant postoperative fistula (CR-POPF) is one of the most severe complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Which imaging biomarker performs better for predicting the risk of CR-POPF remains unknown. PURPOSE: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of ECV and tomoelastography-derived pancreatic stiffness for predicting the risk of CR-POPF in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy. STUDY TYPE: Prospective. POPULATION: Eighty patients who underwent multiparametric pancreatic MRI before pancreaticoduodenectomy, among whom 16 developed CR-POPF and 64 did not. FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 3 T/tomoelastography and precontrast and postcontrast T1 mapping of the pancreas. ASSESSMENT: Pancreatic stiffness was measured on the tomographic c-map, and pancreatic ECV was calculated from precontrast and postcontrast T1 maps. Pancreatic stiffness and ECV were compared with histological fibrosis grading (F0-F3). The optimal cutoff values for predicting CR-POPF were determined, and the correlation between CR-POPF and imaging parameters was evaluated. STATISTICAL TESTS: The Spearman's rank correlation and multivariate linear regression analysis was conducted. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis was performed. A double-sided P < 0.05 indicated a statistically significant difference. RESULTS: Pancreatic stiffness and ECV both showed a significantly positive correlation with histological pancreatic fibrosis (r = 0.73 and 0.56, respectively). Patients with advanced pancreatic fibrosis had significantly higher pancreatic stiffness and ECV compared to those with no/mild fibrosis. Pancreatic stiffness and ECV were also correlated with each other (r = 0.58). Lower pancreatic stiffness (<1.38 m/sec), lower ECV (<0.28), nondilated main pancreatic duct (<3 mm) and pathological diagnosis other than pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma were associated with higher risk of CR-POPF at univariate analysis, and pancreatic stiffness was independently associated with CR-POPF at multivariate analysis (odds ratio: 18.59, 95% confidence interval: 4.45, 77.69). DATA CONCLUSION: Pancreatic stiffness and ECV were associated with histological fibrosis grading, and pancreatic stiffness was an independent predictor for CR-POPF. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 1 TECHNICAL EFFICACY STAGE: 5.

Evaluation of pancreatic chymotrypsin activity for on-site prediction of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula.

OBJECTIVES: Although the risk of complications due to postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) have been evaluated based on the amylase level in drained ascitic fluid, this method has much room for improvement regarding diagnostic accuracy and facility of the measurement. This study aimed to investigate the clinical value of measuring pancreatic chymotrypsin activity for rapid and accurate prediction of POPF after pancreaticoduodenectomy. METHODS: In 52 consecutive patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy, the chymotrypsin activity in pancreatic juice was measured by calculating the increase in fluorescence intensity during the first 5 min after activation with an enzyme-activatable fluorophore. The predictive value for clinically relevant POPF (CR-POPF) was compared between this technique and the conventional method based on the amylase level. RESULTS: According to receiver operating characteristic analyses, pancreatic chymotrypsin activity on postoperative day (POD) 3 measured with a multiplate reader had the highest predictive value for CR-POPF (area under the curve [AUC], 0.752; P < 0.001), yielding 77.8 % sensitivity and 68.8 % specificity. The AUC and sensitivity/specificity of the amylase level in ascitic fluid on POD 3 were 0.695 (P = 0.053) and 77.8 %/41.2 %, respectively. Multivariable analysis identified high pancreatic chymotrypsin activity on POD 3 as an independent risk factor for CR-POPF. Measurement of pancreatic chymotrypsin activity with a prototype portable fluorescence photometer could significantly predict CR-POPF (AUC, 0.731; P = 0.010). CONCLUSION: Measurement of pancreatic chymotrypsin activity enabled accurate and rapid prediction of CR-POPF after pancreaticoduodenectomy. This can help surgeons to implement appropriate drain management at the patient's bedside without delay.

Combined pre-operative risk score predicts pancreatic leak after pancreatic resection.

BACKGROUND: Post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a major complication following pancreatectomy and is currently difficult to predict pre-operatively. This study aims to validate pre-operative risk factors and develop a novel combined score for the prediction of POPF in the pre-operative setting. METHODS: Data were collected from 2016 to 2021 for radiologic main pancreatic duct diameter (MPD), body mass index (BMI), physical status classified by American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), polypharmacy, mean platelet ratio (MPR), comorbidity-polypharmacy score (CPS), and a novel Combined Pancreatic Leak Prediction Score (CPLPS) (derived from MPD diameter, BMI, and CPS) were obtained from pre-operative data and analyzed for their independent association with POPF occurrence. RESULTS: In total, 166 patients who underwent pancreatectomy with pancreatic leak (Grade A, B, and C) occurring in 51(30.7%) of patients. Pre-operative radiologic MPD diameter < 4 mm (p < 0.001), < 5 mm (p < 0.001), < 6 mm (p = 0.001), BMI ≥ 25 (p = 0.009), and ≥ 30 (p = 0.017) were independently associated with the occurrence of pancreatic leak. CPLPS was also predictive of pancreatic leak following pancreatectomy on univariate (p = 0.005) and multivariate analysis (p = 0.036). CONCLUSION: MPD and BMI were independent risk factors predictive for the development of pancreatic leak. CPLPS, was an independent predictor of pancreatic leak following pancreatectomy and could be used to help guide surgical decision making and patient counseling.

Optimal cutoff values of drain amylase for predicting pancreatic fistula are different between open and laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Drainage fluid amylase (DFA) is useful for predicting clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after distal pancreatectomy (DP). However, difference in optimal cutoff value of DFA for predicting CR-POPF between open DP (ODP) and laparoscopic DP (LDP) has not been investigated. This study aimed to identify the optimal cutoff values of DFA for predicting CR-POPF after ODP and LDP. METHODS: Data for 294 patients (ODP, n = 127; LDP, n = 167) undergoing DP at Kobe University Hospital between 2010 and 2021 were reviewed. Propensity score matching was performed to minimize treatment selection bias. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to determine the optimal cutoff values of DFA for predicting CR-POPF for ODP and LDP. Logistic regression analysis for CR-POPF was performed to investigate the diagnostic value of DFA on postoperative day (POD) three with identified cutoff value. RESULTS: In the matched cohort, CR-POPF rates were 24.7% and 7.9% after ODP and LDP, respectively. DFA on POD one was significantly lower after ODP than after LDP (2263 U/L vs 4243 U/L, p < 0.001), while the difference was not significant on POD three (543 U/L vs 1221 U/L, p = 0.171). ROC analysis revealed that the optimal cutoff value of DFA on POD one and three for predicting CR-POPF were different between ODP and LDP (ODP, 3697 U/L on POD one, 1114 U/L on POD three; LDP, 10564 U/L on POD one, 6020 U/L on POD three). Multivariate analysis showed that DFA on POD three with identified cutoff value was the independent predictor for CR-POPF both for ODP and LDP. CONCLUSIONS: DFA on POD three is an independent predictor for CR-POPF after both ODP and LDP. However, the optimal cutoff value for it is significantly higher after LDP than after ODP. Optimal threshold of DFA for drain removal may be different between ODP and LDP.

A combined score for predicting clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula based on inflammatory parameters and drainage fluid culture results on postoperative day 3.

BACKGROUND: Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreatic resection can lead to severe postoperative complications. POPF is defined based on postoperative day (POD) 3 drainage fluid amylase level. POPF correlates with inflammatory parameters as well as drainage fluid bacterial infection. However, a standardized model based on these factors for predicting CR-POPF remains elusive. We aimed to identify inflammatory parameter- and drainage fluid culture-related risk factors for CR-POPF on POD 3 after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) and distal pancreatectomy (DP). METHODS: Data from 351 patients who underwent PD or DP between 2013 and 2022 at a single institution were retrospectively analyzed. Risk factors for CR-POPF were investigated using multivariate analyses, and a prediction model combining the risk factors for CR-POPF was developed. RESULTS: Of the 351 patients, 254 and 97 underwent PD and DP, respectively. Multivariate analyses revealed that drainage fluid amylase level ≥722 IU/L, culture positivity, as well as neutrophil count ≥5473/mm3 on POD 3 were independent risk factors for CR-POPF in PD group. Similarly, drainage fluid, amylase level ≥500 IU/L, and culture positivity on POD 3 as well as pancreatic thickness ≥11.1 mm were independent risk factors in the DP group. The model for predicting CR-POPF achieved the maximum overall accuracy rate when the number of risk factors was ≥2 in both the PD and DP groups. CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory parameters on POD 3 significantly influence the risk of CR-POPF onset after pancreatectomy. The combined models based on these values can accurately predict the risk of CR-POPF after pancreatectomy.

High hand grip strength is a significant risk factor and a useful predictor of postoperative pancreatic fistula following pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is one of the most critical complications of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Studies on predictive factors for POPF that can be identified preoperatively are limited. Recent reports have highlighted the association between the preoperative nutritional status, including sarcopenia, and postoperative complications. We examined preoperative risk factors for POPF after PD, focusing on nutritional indicators. METHODS: A total of 153 consecutive patients who underwent PD at our institution were enrolled in this study. Preoperative nutritional parameters, including hand grip strength (HGS) and skeletal muscle mass as components of sarcopenia, were incorporated into the analysis. POPFs were categorized according to the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF) definition as biochemical (grade A) or clinically relevant (CR-POPF; grades B and C). RESULTS: Thirty-seven of the 153 patients (24.1%) fulfilled the ISGPF definition of CR-POPF postoperatively. In the univariate analysis, the incidence of CR-POPF was associated with male sex, non-pancreatic tumor diseases, a high body mass index, a high HGS and a high skeletal muscle mass index. In the multivariate analysis, non-pancreatic tumor diseases and an HGS ≥23.0 kg were selected as independent risk factors for CR-POPF (P <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A high HGS, a screening tool for sarcopenia, was a risk factor for CR-POPF. It can accurately serve as a useful predictor of POPF risk in patients undergoing PD. These results highlight the potential of sarcopenia to reduce the incidence of POPF and highlight the need to clarify the mechanism of POPF occurrence.

Postpancreatectomy Acute Pancreatitis After Pancreaticoduodenectomy: A Distinct Clinical Entity.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to characterize postpancreatectomy acute pancreatitis (PPAP) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) in a high-volume center. BACKGROUND: The International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) has recently proposed a new definition and grading scale of PPAP, but specific studies are lacking. METHODS: Patients who underwent PD from 2020 to 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. PPAP was defined based on the International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery definition: sustained elevation of serum amylase levels for least the first 48 hours postoperatively and radiologic alterations consistent with PPAP. RESULTS: Among a total of 716 patients who were finally analyzed, PPAP occurred in 152 (21.2%) patients. Patients with PPAP were associated with significantly higher incidences of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) (40.8% vs 11.7%, P <0.001), major complications (13.8% vs 6.6%, P =0.004), and biliary leak (11.8% vs 4.6%, P =0.001). Among them, 8 patients developed grade C PPAP leading to organ failure, reoperation, or death. Patients developing PPAP alone also demonstrated a statistically significantly increased rate of major complications than those without PPAP or POPF. In contrast, no differences were found in postoperative outcomes in patients with POPF in terms of whether they were associated with PPAP. CONCLUSION: PPAP is a distinct complication after PD with distinctive clinical outcomes. A part of PPAP presents as an inflammatory process in the early postoperative period but sometimes could lead to necrotizing pancreatitis or other severe clinical scenarios, and another part of PPAP would lead to anastomotic failure that accounts for a great proportion of POPF occurrence.

Postoperative Serum Hyperamylasemia Adds Sequential Value to the Fistula Risk Score in Predicting Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether postoperative serum hyperamylasemia (POH), with drain fluid amylase (DFA) and C-reactive protein (CRP), improves the Fistula Risk Score (FRS) accuracy in assessing the risk of a postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The FRS predicts POPF occurrence using intraoperative predictors with good accuracy but intrinsic limits. METHODS: Outcomes of patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomies between 2016 and 2021 were evaluated across FRS-risk zones and POH occurrence. POH consists of serum amylase activity greater than the upper limit of normal (52 U/l), persisting within the first 48 hours postoperatively (postoperative day -POD- 1 and 2). RESULTS: Out of 905 pancreaticoduodenectomies, some FRS elements, namely soft pancreatic texture (odds ratio (OR) 11.6), pancreatic duct diameter (OR 0.80), high-risk pathologic diagnosis (OR 1.54), but not higher blood loss (OR 0.99), were associated with POH. POH was an independent predictor of POPF, which occurred in 46.8% of POH cases ( P <0.001). Once POH occurs, POPF incidence rises from 3.8% to 42.9%, 22.9% to 41.7%, and 48.9% to 59.2% in patients intraoperatively classified at low, moderate and high FRS risk, respectively. The predictive ability of multivariable models adding POD 1 drain fluid amylase, POD 1-2 POH and POD 3 C-reactive protein to the FRS showed progressively and significantly higher accuracy (AUC FRS=0.82, AUC FRS-DFA=0.85, AUC FRS-DFA-POH=0.87, AUC FRS-DFA-POH-CRP=0.90, DeLong always P <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: POPF risk assessment should follow a dynamic process. The stepwise retrieval of early, postoperative biological markers improves clinical risk stratification by increasing the granularity of POPF risk estimates and affords a possible therapeutic window before the actual morbidity of POPF occurs.

Multidimensional Nomogram to Predict Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula after Minimally Invasive Pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is an inherently severe risk of pancreatic resection. Previous research has proposed models that identify risk factors and predict CR-POPF, although these are rarely applicable to minimally invasive pancreaticoduodenectomy (MIPD). This study aimed to evaluate the individual risks of CR-POPF and to propose a nomogram for predicting POPF in MIPD. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 429 patients who underwent MIPD. In the multivariate analysis, the Akaike information criterion stepwise logistic regression method was used to select the final model to develop the nomogram. RESULTS: Of 429 patients, 53 (12.4%) experienced CR-POPF. On multivariate analysis, pancreatic texture (p = 0.001), open conversion (p = 0.008), intraoperative transfusion (p = 0.011), and pathology (p = 0.048) were identified as independent predictors of CR-POPF. The nomogram was developed based on patient, pancreatic, operative, and surgeon factors by using the following four additional clinical factors as variables: American Society of Anesthesiologists class ≥ III, size of pancreatic duct, type of surgical approach, and < 40 cases of MIPD experience. CONCLUSIONS: A multidimensional nomogram was developed to predict CR-POPF after MIPD. This nomogram and calculator can help surgeons anticipate, select, and manage critical complications.

Adjusting Drain Fluid Amylase for Drain Volume Does Not Improve Pancreatic Fistula Prediction.

INTRODUCTION: Drain fluid amylase (DFA) levels have been used to predict clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) and guide postoperative drain management. Optimal DFA cutoff thresholds vary between studies, thereby prompting investigation of an alternative assessment technique. As DFA measurements could, in theory, be distorted by variations in ascites fluid production, we hypothesized that adjusting DFA for volume corrected drain fluid amylase (vDFA) would improve CR-POPF predictive models. METHODS: A single-institution retrospective cohort study of patients, who underwent pancreatoduodenectomies (PD) and distal pancreatectomies (DP) between 2013 and 2019, was performed. DFAs and vDFAs were measured on postoperative day (POD) 3. Clinicopathologic variables were compared between cohorts by univariable and multivariable analyses and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: Patients developing a CR-POPF were more likely to be male and have elevated DFA, vDFA, and body mass index (BMI). vDFA use did not contribute to a superior CR-POPF predictive model compared to DFA-a finding consistent on subanalysis of surgery type PD versus DP. In CR-POPF predictive models, DFA, vDFA, and male sex significantly improved CR-POPF predictive models when considering both surgery subtypes, while only DFA and vDFA significantly improved models when cohorts were segregated by surgery type. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative DFA remains a preferred method of predicting CR-POPF as the proposed vDFA assessment technique only adds complexity without increased discriminability.

Drain fluid volume combined with amylase level predicts clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy: A retrospective clinical study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Several indicators are recognized in the development of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). However, drain fluid volume (DFV) remains poorly studied. We aimed to discover the predictive effects of DFV and guide clinical management. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical data of patients that received PD between January 2015 and December 2019 in a high-volume center. DFV was analyzed as a potential risk factor and postoperative short-term outcomes as well as drain removal time were compared stratified by different DFV levels. Receiver operating characteristic curves and area under curves (AUC) were compared for DFV alone and DFV combined with drain fluid amylase (DFA). Subgroup analysis of DFV stratified by DFA evaluated the predictability of CR-POPF. RESULTS: CR-POPF occurred in 19.7% of 841 patients. Hypertension, postoperative day 3 (POD3) DFA ≥ 300 U/L, and POD3 DFV ≥ 30 mL were independent risk factors, while pancreatic main duct diameter ≥ 3 mm was a protective factor. POD3 DFV ≥ 30 mL increased the overall occurrences of CR-POPF and major complications (P = 0.017; P = 0.029). POD3 DFV alone presented a low predictive value (AUC 0.602), while POD3 DFV combined with DFA had a high predictive value (AUC 0.759) for CR-POPF. Subgroup analysis showed that the combination of POD3 DFV ≥ 30 mL and DFA ≥ 300 U/L led to higher incidences of CR-POPF (P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: CR-POPF is common after PD, and high DFV combined with DFA may predict its occurrence and facilitate appropriate management.

Impact of Drain Position on Drain Fluid Amylase, Fluid Collection and Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula after Distal Pancreatectomy.

BACKGROUND: The current definition for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is based on the drain fluid amylase (DFA), and drains must be positioned adequately. We investigated the impact of DFA level, drain position and fluid collection after distal pancreatectomy (DP). METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 516 patients who underwent DP between June 2004 and December 2018. Patients were excluded if DP was not main procedure, DFA was not measured, postoperative computed tomography (CT) was not performed, or drains were removed before CT. Demographic and perioperative data were analyzed in 422 eligible patients. RESULTS: Of 422 patients, 49(11.6%) had clinically relevant (CR)-POPF and 102(24.2%) had a malpositioned drain. There was no difference in CR-POPF rate between the high and low DFA groups (12.6% vs 10.7%, P = 0.649). Drain malposition was more frequently associated with symptomatic fluid collection and CR-POPF than well-positioned drains. Male sex, high body mass index, transfusion, and drain malposition were CR-POPF risk factors. In subgroup analysis, drain malposition was also an independent risk factor for CR-POPF in the low DFA group. CONCLUSIONS: After DP, the incidence of CR-POPF in the high and low DFA groups was similar and drain malposition increased the risk of CR-POPF. Thus, the ISGPS definition of POPF based on DFA levels is limited in DP, and DFA levels should be interpreted together with the drain position.

Serum amylase on postoperative day 1 is superior to serum lipase in predicting clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after partial pancreaticoduodenectomy.

PURPOSE: To compare the predictive value of serum amylase and lipase regarding the occurrence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (cr-POPF) after partial pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). METHODS: Data from 228 consecutive patients undergoing PD were obtained from a prospective database. Serum amylase and lipase were measured on postoperative days (PODs) 0-2. Receiver-operating characteristics analysis was performed and cutoff values were tested using logistic regression. RESULTS: Serum amylase had a larger area under the curve (AUC) on POD1 (AUC 0.89, p <0.001) than serum lipase. For serum amylase POD 1, a cutoff value of 70 U/l showed sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 70% for the diagnosis of cr-POPF. Serum amylase POD 1 > 70 U/l (OR 9.815, 95% CI 3.683-26.152, p < 0.001), drain amylase POD 1 > 300 U/l (OR 2.777, 95% CI 1.071-7.197, p= 0.036), and a small (≤ 3mm) pancreatic duct diameter (OR 3.705, 95% CI 1.426-9.627, p= 0.007) were significant predictors of cr-POPF in the multivariable analysis. Patients were divided into three risk groups based on serum amylase POD 1 and pancreatic duct diameter. This model had a good performance in discriminating cr-POPF (AUC 0.846, 95% CI 0.793-0.898). The sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value for the combination of serum amylase POD 1 <70 U/l and pancreatic duct diameter >3 mm were 100%, 70%, and 100%. CONCLUSION: Serum amylase POD 1 was superior to serum lipase in predicting cr-POPF after PD. The proposed risk prediction model had a sensitivity and negative predictive value of 100%, allowing for early identification of cr-POPF.

Preoperative percent body fat in bioelectrical impedance analysis predicts pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear which body composition affects postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy. In the present study, we evaluated the relationship between nutritional factors, body composition, and POPF. METHODS: This was a prospective observational cohort study. Patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy between March 2018 and July 2021 were included in this study. Preoperative body composition was measured using a bioelectrical impedance analyzer. In addition, the predictive factors for POPF were analyzed using logistic regression model. RESULTS: The study included 143 patients. Among these patients, 31 had POPF (POPF group) and 112 did not (non-POPF group) after pancreaticoduodenectomy. For body composition, the percent body fat was significantly higher in the POPF group (26.90 vs 23.48, P = 0.022). Multivariate analysis revealed that alcohol consumption (odds ratio 2.95, P = 0.03), pancreatic duct < 3 mm (odds ratio 3.89, P < 0.01), and percent body fat (odds ratio 1.08, P = 0.01) were significantly independent predictive factors for POPF. When the patients were divided into three groups based on their percent body fat (< 25, 25-35, and ≥ 35), POPF occurred more frequently in the group with ≥ 35 percent body fat (47.1%) than in the < 25 group (15.5%) (P = 0.008). CONCLUSION: Predictive factors for POPF related to nutritional status, such as percent body fat, should be considered before proceeding to pancreaticoduodenectomy (ClinicalTrials.gov trial registration no. NCT5257434).

Analysis of predictors for postoperative complications after pancreatectomy--what is new after establishing the definition of postpancreatectomy acute pancreatitis (PPAP)?

PURPOSE: We aimed to analyze the predictive value of hyperamylasemia after pancreatectomy for morbidity and for the decision to perform rescue completion pancreatectomy (CP) in a retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Data were extracted from a retrospective clinical database. Postoperative hyperamylasemia (POH) and postoperative hyperlipasemia (POHL) were defined by values greater than those accepted as the upper limit at our institution on postoperative day 1 (POD1). The endpoints of the study were the association of POH with postoperative morbidity and the possible predictors for postpancreatectomy acute pancreatitis (PPAP) and severe complications such as the necessity for rescue CP. RESULTS: We analyzed 437 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy over a period of 7 years. Among them, 219 (52.3%) patients had POH and 200 (47.7%) had normal postoperative amylase (non-POH) levels. A soft pancreatic texture (odds ratio [OR] 3.86) and POH on POD1 (OR 8.2) were independent predictors of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), and POH on POD1 (OR 6.38) was an independent predictor of rescue CP. The clinically relevant POPF (49.5% vs. 11.4%, p < 0.001), intraabdominal abscess (38.3% vs. 15.3%, p < 0.001), postoperative hemorrhage (22.8% vs. 5.1%, p < 0.001), major complications (Clavien-Dindo classification > 2) (52.5% vs. 25.6%, p < 0.001), and CP (13% vs. 1.8%, p < 0.001) occurred significantly more often in the POH group than in the non-POH group. CONCLUSION: Although POH on POD1 occurs frequently, in addition to other risk factors, it has a predictive value for the development of postoperative morbidity associated with PPAP and CP.

Risk factor analysis and prediction of postoperative clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy.

OBJECTIVE: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following distal pancreatectomy (DP) is a serious complication. In the present study, we aimed to identify the risk factors associated with clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) and establish a nomogram model for predicting CR-POPF after DP. METHODS: In total, 115 patients who underwent DP at the General Hospital of Northern Theater Command between January 2005 and December 2020 were retrospectively studied. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors associated with CR-POPF. Then, a nomogram was formulated based on the results of multivariable logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analyses were used to validate the clinical application value of the model. RESULTS: The incidence of CR-POPF was 33.0% (38/115) in the present study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the following variables as independent risk factors for POPF: body mass index (BMI) (OR 4.658, P = 0.004), preoperative albumin level (OR 7.934, P = 0.001), pancreatic thickness (OR 1.256, P = 0.003) and pancreatic texture (OR 3.143, P = 0.021). We created a nomogram by incorporating the above mentioned risk factors. The nomogram model showed better predictive value, with a concordance index of 0.842, sensitivity of 0.710, and specificity of 0.870 when compared to each risk factor. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analyses also indicated that the nomogram conferred a high clinical net benefit. CONCLUSION: Our nomogram could accurately and objectively predict the risk of postoperative CR-POPF in individuals who underwent DP, which could help clinicians with early identification of patients who might develop CR-POPF and early development of a suitable fistula mitigation strategy and postoperative management.

Drain fluid and serum amylase concentration ratio is the most reliable indicator for predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a major complication of pancreatic surgery. Drain fluid amylase concentration (DAC) is considered a predictive indicator of POPF. However, other indicators related to postoperative drain fluid amylase status exist, and the most reliable indicator for predicting POPF remains unclear. The object of this study is to identify the single most accurate indicator related to drain fluid amylase status of POPF after distal pancreatectomy (DP). METHODS: This single-institution retrospective study included 122 patients who underwent DP. The study was conducted between 2010 and 2022 at Gifu University Hospital. We statistically analyzed DAC, drain fluid amylase amount (DAA) calculated by multiplying DAC and daily drainage volume, and drain and serum amylase concentration ratio (DSACR) to assess the correlation with POPF. RESULTS: Based on the definition and grading of the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula, 24.6 (%) of the 122 patients had Grades B and C POPF. The result of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predicting POPF after DP, DSACR had the highest area under curve(AUC) value among DAC, DAA, and DSACR both POD1 and POD3. The cutoff value of DSACR on POD1 was 17 (AUC 0.69, sensitivity 80.0%, specificity 58.2%, and accuracy 63.6%). The cutoff value of DSACR on POD3 was 22 (AUC 0.77, sensitivity 77.7%, specificity 73.3%, and accuracy 73.6%). Overall, DSACR on POD3 had the highest AUC value. Furthermore, a multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that pancreatic texture (soft; odds ratio [OR] 9.22; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.22-44.19; p < 0.01) and DSACR on POD3 (> 22; OR 8.76; 95% CI 2.78-31.59; p < 0.001) were independently associated with POPF after DP. CONCLUSIONS: DSACR is the most reliable indicator of drain fluid amylase status for predicting POPF after DP.

The cholinesterase and C-reactive protein score is a potential predictor of pseudoaneurysm formation after pancreaticoduodenectomy in patients with soft pancreas.

BACKGROUND: Pseudoaneurysm (PA) rupture after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is a life-threatening complication. Most PA cases originate from postoperative pancreatic fistulas (POPFs). Although several risk factors for POPF have been identified, specific risk factors for PA formation remain unclear. Therefore, we retrospectively analyzed PD cases with soft pancreas and proposed a novel strategy for early detection of PA formation. METHODS: Overall, 120 patients underwent PD between 2010 and 2020 at our institution; of these, 65 patients with soft pancreas were enrolled. We evaluated the clinicopathological factors influencing PA formation and developed a risk score to predict PA formation. RESULTS: In total, 11 of the 65 patients developed PAs (PA formation group: PAG), and 8 of these 11 PAs ruptured. The median time to PA formation was 15 days, with a minimum of 5 days. The PAG was significantly older than the non-PA formation group, were predominantly men, and had comorbid diabetes mellitus. Pre- and intra-operative findings were similar between the two groups. Importantly, no significant differences were found in postoperative drain amylase levels and total drain amylase content. Cholinesterase and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels on postoperative day (POD) 3 were significantly different between the two groups. Multivariate analysis showed that cholinesterase ≤ 112 U/L and CRP ≥ 16.0 mg/dl on POD 3 were independent predictors of PA formation. CONCLUSIONS: Decreased cholinesterase and elevated CRP on POD 3 (Cho-C score) are useful predictors of PA formation in cases with soft pancreas. In such cases, periodic computed tomography evaluations and strict drain management are necessary to prevent life-threatening hemorrhage.

A novel prediction model of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy using only preoperative markers.

BACKGROUND: Since clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) can cause intra-abdominal hemorrhage and abscesses, leading to surgery-related deaths after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), its preoperative prediction is important to develop strategies for surgical procedures and perioperative management. This study aimed to establish a novel prediction model for CR-POPF using preoperative markers. METHODS: On a training set of 180 patients who underwent PD at the Yamaguchi University Hospital, a combination of CR-POPF predictors were explored using the leave-one-out method with a unique discrete Bayes classifier. This predictive model was confirmed using a validation set of 366 patients who underwent PD at the Osaka University Hospital. RESULTS: In the training set, CR-POPF occurred in 60 (33%)　of 180 patients and 130 (36%)　of 366 patients in the validation set using selected markers. In patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), the main pancreatic duct (MPD) index showed the highest prognostic performance and could differentiate CR-POPF with 87% sensitivity and 81% specificity among 84 patients in the training set. In the validation set, the sensitivity and specificity of the MPD index-based model for 130 PDAC samples were 93% and 87%, respectively. In patients with non-PDAC, the MPD index/body mass index (BMI) combination showed the highest prognostic performance and could differentiate CR-POPF with 84% sensitivity and 57% specificity among 96 patients in the training set. In the validation set, the sensitivity and specificity of the MPD index/BMI-based model for 236 non-PDAC samples were 85% and 53%, respectively. CONCLUSION: We developed a novel prediction model for pancreatic fistulas after PD using only preoperative markers. The MPD index and MPD index/BMI combination will be useful for CR-POPF assessment in PDAC and non-PDAC samples, respectively.

C-reactive protein postoperative values to predict clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy.

INTRODUCTION: despite significant medical and technological advances, the incidence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after distal pancreatectomy (DP) is reported to be between 3-45 %. The main objective of this study was to analyze the early post-surgical risk factors for developing POPF after DP. MATERIAL AND METHODS: a retrospective observational study was performed on a prospective basis of patients undergoing DP in a tertiary hospital from January 2011 to December 2021. Sociodemographic, preoperative analytical, tumor-related and postoperative complications variables were analyzed. RESULTS: of the 52 patients analyzed, 71.8 % of the sample had postoperative drains amylase elevation. However, 25.7 % of the total had grade-B and/or grade-C POPF. Univariate logistic regression with the variables studied showed the following as risk factors for B-C or clinically relevant POPF: amylase values in drainage at the 5th postoperative day (POD) (p = 0.097; 1.01 [1-1.01]), preoperative BMI (p = 0.015; 1.27 [1.04-1.55]) and C-reactive protein (CRP) value at the 3rd POD (p = 0.034; 1.01 [1.01-1.02]). The ROC curve of CRP value at the 3rd POD showed an area under the curve of 0.764 (95 % CI: 0.6-0.93) and the best cut-off point was 190 mg/l (sensitivity 89 % and specificity 67 %). CONCLUSIONS: CRP value at the 3rd POD is a predictive factor for POPF after DP. Early detection of patients at risk of POPF based on these characteristics could have an impact on their postoperative management.