Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a zoonotic disease caused by the rodent-transmitted orthohantaviruses (HVs), with China possessing the most cases globally. The virus hosts in China are Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus, and the disease spread is strongly influenced by global climate dynamics. To assess and predict the spatiotemporal trends of HFRS from 2005 to 2098, we collected historical HFRS data in mainland China (2005-2020), historical and projected climate and population data (2005-2098), and spatial variables including biotic, environmental, topographical, and socioeconomic. Spatiotemporal predictions and mapping were conducted under 27 scenarios incorporating multiple integrated representative concentration pathway models and population scenarios. We identify the type of magistral HVs host species as the best spatial division, including four region categories. Seven extreme climate indices associated with temperature and precipitation have been pinpointed as key factors affecting the trends of HFRS. Our predictions indicate that annual HFRS cases will increase significantly in 62 of 356 cities in mainland China. Rattus regions are predicted to be the most active, surpassing Apodemus and Mixed regions. Eighty cities are identified as at severe risk level for HFRS, each with over 50 reported cases annually, including 22 new cities primarily located in East China and Rattus regions after 2020, while 6 others develop new risk. Our results suggest that the risk of HFRS will remain high through the end of this century, with Rattus norvegicus being the most active host, and that extreme climate indices are significant risk factors. Our findings can inform evidence-based policymaking regarding future risk of HFRS.

Nephropathia Epidemica Caused by Puumala Virus in Bank Voles, Scania, Southern Sweden.

In 2018, a local case of nephropathia epidemica was reported in Scania, southern Sweden, more than 500 km south of the previously known presence of human hantavirus infections in Sweden. Another case emerged in the same area in 2020. To investigate the zoonotic origin of those cases, we trapped rodents in Ballingslöv, Norra Sandby, and Sörby in southern Sweden during 2020‒2021. We found Puumala virus (PUUV) in lung tissues from 9 of 74 Myodes glareolus bank voles by screening tissues using a hantavirus pan-large segment reverse transcription PCR. Genetic analysis revealed that the PUUV strains were distinct from those found in northern Sweden and Denmark and belonged to the Finnish PUUV lineage. Our findings suggest an introduction of PUUV from Finland or Karelia, causing the human PUUV infections in Scania. This discovery emphasizes the need to understand the evolution, cross-species transmission, and disease outcomes of this newly found PUUV variant.

Evaluating the long-term impact of COVID-19-associated public health interventions on zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in China: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The long-term impact of COVID-19-associated public health interventions on zoonotic and vector-borne infectious diseases (ZVBs) remains uncertain. This study sought to examine the changes in ZVBs in China during the COVID-19 pandemic and predict their future trends. METHODS: Monthly incidents of seven ZVBs (Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome [HFRS], Rabies, Dengue fever [DF], Human brucellosis [HB], Leptospirosis, Malaria, and Schistosomiasis) were gathered from January 2004 to July 2023. An autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) by incorporating the COVID-19-associated public health intervention variables was developed to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of interventions and forecast ZVBs epidemics from August 2023 to December 2025. RESULTS: Over the study period, there were 1,599,647 ZVBs incidents. HFRS and rabies exhibited declining trends, HB showed an upward trajectory, while the others remained relatively stable. The ARFIMA, incorporating a pulse pattern, estimated the average monthly number of changes of - 83 (95% confidence interval [CI] - 353-189) cases, - 3 (95% CI - 33-29) cases, - 468 (95% CI - 1531-597) cases, 2191 (95% CI 1056-3326) cases, 7 (95% CI - 24-38) cases, - 84 (95% CI - 222-55) cases, and - 214 (95% CI - 1036-608) cases for HFRS, rabies, DF, HB, leptospirosis, malaria, and schistosomiasis, respectively, although these changes were not statistically significant besides HB. ARFIMA predicted a decrease in HB cases between August 2023 and December 2025, while indicating a relative plateau for the others. CONCLUSIONS: China's dynamic zero COVID-19 strategy may have exerted a lasting influence on HFRS, rabies, DF, malaria, and schistosomiasis, beyond immediate consequences, but not affect HB and leptospirosis. ARFIMA emerges as a potent tool for intervention analysis, providing valuable insights into the sustained effectiveness of interventions. Consequently, the application of ARFIMA contributes to informed decision-making, the design of effective interventions, and advancements across various fields.

Spatial-temporal drivers and incidence heterogeneity of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in Shandong Province, China, 2016-2022.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) signals a recurring risk in Eurasia in recent years owing to its continued rise in case notifications and the extension of geographical distribution. This study was undertaken to investigate the spatiotemporal drivers and incidence heterogeneity of HFRS transmission in Shandong Province. METHODS: The epidemiological data for HFRS, meteorological data and socioeconomic data were obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, and Shandong Statistical Yearbook, respectively. The spatial-temporal multicomponent model was employed to analyze the values of spatial-temporal components and the heterogeneity of HFRS transmission across distinct regions. RESULTS: The total effect values of the autoregressive, epidemic, and endemic components were 0.451, 0.187, and 0.033, respectively, exhibiting significant heterogeneity across various cities. This suggested a pivotal role of the autoregressive component in propelling HFRS transmission in Shandong Province. The epidemic component of Qingdao, Weifang, Yantai, Weihai, and Jining declined sharply at the onset of 2020. The random effect identified distinct incidence levels associated with Qingdao and Weifang, signifying regional variations in HFRS occurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The autoregressive component emerged as a significant driver in the transmission of HFRS in Shandong Province. Targeted preventive measures should be strategically implemented across various regions, taking into account the predominant component influencing the epidemic.

[Monitoring and analysis on host animals of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Henan Province from 2019 to 2022].

Objective: To investigate the distribution and hantavirus (HV) carrying state in host animals of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Henan Province from 2019 to 2022. Methods: Host animal monitoring was carried out at the monitoring sites of HFRS in Henan Province. The real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR was used to detect hantavirus in rat lungs. The types of hantavirus were analyzed. The positive samples were sequenced and then sequence homology and variation were analyzed. Results: A total of 1 308 rodents were captured from 2019 to 2022, 16 specimens of rat lungs tested positive for hantavirus nucleic acid. The positive rate of HV was 1.22% (16/1 308). According to type, the positive rate of HV in Apodius agrarius was the highest (68.75%, 11/16). According to distribution, the positive rate of HV in field samples was the highest (2.50%, 12/480), and the positive rate of HV in residential samples was 0.53% (4/759). The typing results of 16 positive samples showed that all viruses were hantavirus type Ⅰ (hantaan virus). The positive samples were sequenced and eight S gene fragments (GenBank number: OQ681444-OQ681451) and six M gene fragments (OQ681438-OQ681443) were obtained. The S and M gene fragments were similar to the Shaanxi 84FLi strain and Sichuan SN7 strain. Phylogenetic analysis of S and M gene fragments showed that they all belonged to the hantaan virus-H5 subtype. Amino acid sequence analysis revealed that, compared with the hantaan virus vaccine strain 84FLi, the 74th amino acid encoded by eight S fragments was replaced by aspartamide with serine. Tryptophan was replaced by glycine at the 14th position of Gn region in XC2022047, and isoleucine was replaced by alanine at the 359 position of XC2022022 and XC2022024. Conclusion: The hantavirus carried by host animals in Henan Province from 2019 to 2022 belongs to the type Ⅰ (hantaan virus), and Apodemus agrarius is still the dominant host animal of the hantaan virus. Compared with the vaccine strains, amino acid sites are replaced in the immune epitopes of the S and M gene fragments.

Evolutionary Formation and Distribution of Puumala Virus Genome Variants, Russia.

We analyzed Puumala virus (PUUV) sequences collected from bank voles from different regions of Russia. Phylogenetic analysis revealed PUUV reassortments in areas with the highest hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence, indicating reassortment might contribute to pathogenic properties of PUUV. Continued surveillance is needed to assess PUUV pathogenicity in Russia.

The impact of wildlife and environmental factors on hantavirus infection in the host and its translation into human risk.

Identifying factors that drive infection dynamics in reservoir host populations is essential in understanding human risk from wildlife-originated zoonoses. We studied zoonotic Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in the host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), populations in relation to the host population, rodent and predator community and environment-related factors and whether these processes are translated into human infection incidence. We used 5-year rodent trapping and bank vole PUUV serology data collected from 30 sites located in 24 municipalities in Finland. We found that PUUV seroprevalence in the host was negatively associated with the abundance of red foxes, but this process did not translate into human disease incidence, which showed no association with PUUV seroprevalence. The abundance of weasels, the proportion of juvenile bank voles in the host populations and rodent species diversity were negatively associated with the abundance index of PUUV positive bank voles, which, in turn, showed a positive association with human disease incidence. Our results suggest certain predators, a high proportion of young bank vole individuals, and a diverse rodent community, may reduce PUUV risk for humans through their negative impacts on the abundance of infected bank voles.

Spatial-temporal dynamics and time series prediction of HFRS in mainland China: A long-term retrospective study.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China. The current study aims to characterize the spatial-temporal dynamics of HFRS in mainland China during a long-term period (1950-2018). A total of 1 665 431 cases of HFRS were reported with an average annual incidence of 54.22 cases/100 000 individuals during 1950-2018. The joint regression model was used to define the global trend of the HFRS cases with an increasing-decreasing-slightly increasing-decreasing-slightly increasing trend during the 68 years. Then spatial correlation analysis and wavelet cluster analysis were used to identify four types of clusters of HFRS cases located in central and northeastern China. Lastly, the prophet model outperforms auto-regressive integrated moving average model in the HFRS modeling. Our findings will help reduce the knowledge gap on the transmission dynamics and distribution patterns of the HFRS in mainland China and facilitate to take effective preventive and control measures for the high-risk epidemic area.

Puumala Orthohantavirus Reassortant Genome Variants Likely Emerging in the Watershed Forests.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) remains a prevalent zoonosis in the Republic of Tatarstan (RT), Russian Federation. Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV), carried by bank voles (Myodes glareolus), is the principal zoonotic pathogen of HFRS in the RT. In this study, we sought to demonstrate the similarity of the PUUV genetic sequences detected in HFRS case patients and bank vole samples previously collected in some areas of the RT. Furthermore, we intended to identify the reassortant PUUV genomes and locate a potential site for their emergence. During 2019 outbreaks, the PUUV genome sequences of the S and M segments from 42 HFRS cases were analysed and compared with the corresponding sequences from bank voles previously trapped in the RT. Most of the PUUV strains from HFRS patients turned out to be closely related to those isolated from bank voles captured near the site of the human infection. We also found possible reassortant PUUV genomes in five patients while they were absent in bank voles. The location of the corresponding HFRS infection sites suggests that reassortant PUUV genomes could emerge in the bank voles that inhabit the forests on the watershed between the Kazanka River and Myosha River. These findings could facilitate the search for the naturally occurring reassortants of PUUV in bank vole populations.

Differential Cytokine Responses and the Clinical Severity of Adult and Pediatric Nephropathia Epidemica.

Nephropathia epidemica (NE), caused by the hantavirus infection, is endemic in Tatarstan Russia. The majority of patients are adults, with infection rarely diagnosed in children. This limited number of pediatric NE cases means there is an inadequate understanding of disease pathogenesis in this age category. Here, we have analyzed clinical and laboratory data in adults and children with NE to establish whether and how the disease severity differs between the two age groups. Serum cytokines were analyzed in samples collected from 11 children and 129 adult NE patients during an outbreak in 2019. A kidney toxicity panel was also used to analyze urine samples from these patients. Additionally, serum and urine samples were analyzed from 11 control children and 26 control adults. Analysis of clinical and laboratory data revealed that NE was milder in children than in adults. A variation in serum cytokine activation could explain the differences in clinical presentation. Cytokines associated with activation of Th1 lymphocytes were prominent in adults, while they were obscured in sera from pediatric NE patients. In addition, a prolonged activation of kidney injury markers was found in adults with NE, whilst only a short-lasting activation of these markers was observed in children with NE. These findings support previous observations of age differences in NE severity, which should be considered when diagnosing the disease in children.

Fatal cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Udmurtia, Russia, 2010 to 2019.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) continues to be a cause of death in Europe. Our aim was to describe the clinical and histopathological features of fatal HFRS in the Udmurt Republic (Udmurtia), located in the European part of Russia. This retrospective observational study included all fatal cases of HFRS that occurred in Udmurtia from January 2010 through December 2019. The most relevant clinical and autopsy data of these cases were recorded through a review of the patients' medical records and autopsy reports. During 2010-2019, Udmurtia had 41 fatal cases of HFRS of a total of 10,312 confirmed cases (case-fatality rate of 0.4%). Twenty-seven patients died in hypotensive and oliguric phases of HFRS due to refractory septic shock and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Fourteen patients died in the polyuric phase of the disease from complications of acute kidney injury or because of hospital-acquired bacterial infections. Multiorgan involvement was noted in all autopsies with variable degrees of generalized venous congestion, interstitial edema, capillary wall thickening, perivascular deposition of plasma proteins, microthrombosis formation, and perivascular hemorrhage. The more prominent histopathological features were seen in kidneys, lungs, and hypophysis.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome caused by destruction of residential area of rodent in a construction site: epidemiological investigation.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), caused by a Hantavirus, affected nine adult males in the southwest area of Xi'an in November 2020 was analyzed in this study. METHODS: Clinical and epidemiological data of HFRS patients in this outbreak were retrospectively analyzed. The whole genome of a hantavirus named 201120HV03xa (hv03xa for short) isolated from Apodemus agrarius captured in the construction site was sequenced and analyzed. In addition, nine HFRS patients were monitored for the IgG antibody against the HV N protein at 6 and 12 months, respectively. RESULTS: In this study, inhalation of aerosolized excreta and contaminated food may be the main source of infection. Genome analysis and phylogenetic analysis showed that hv03xa is a reassortment strain of HTNV, having an S segment related to A16 of HTN 4, an M segment related to Q37 and Q10 of HTN 4, and an L segment related to prototype strain 76-118 of HTN 7. Potential recombination was detected in the S segment of hv03xa strain. The anti-HV-IgG level of all the patients persist for at least one year after infection. CONCLUSIONS: This report documented an HFRS outbreak in Xi'an, China, which provided the basic data for epidemiological surveillance of endemic HTNV infection and facilitated to predict disease risk and implement prevention measures.

Analysis of the effect of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Taizhou City, China, 2008-2020.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is endemic in Zhejiang Province, China, while few studies have concentrated on the influence of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence in the area. METHODS: Data on HFRS and meteorological factors from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2020 in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province were collected. Multivariate analysis was conducted to the relationship between meteorological factors including minimum temperatures, relative humidity, and cumulative rainfall with HFRS. RESULTS: The HFRS incidence peaked in November and December and it was negatively correlated with average and highest average temperatures. Compared with median of meteorological factors, the relative risks (RR) of weekly average temperature at 12 ℃, weekly highest temperature at 18 ℃relative humidity at 40%, and cumulative rainfall at 240 mm were most significant and RRs were 1.41 (95% CI: 1.09-1.82), 1.32 (95% CI: 1.05-1.66), 2.18 (95% CI: 1.16-4.07), and 1.91 (95% CI: 1.16-2.73), respectively. Average temperature, precipitation, relative humidity had interactions on HFRS and the risk of HFRS occurrence increased with the decrease of average temperature and the increase of precipitation. CONCLUSION: Our study results are indicative of the association of environmental factors with the HFRS incidence, probable recommendation could be use of environmental factors as early warning signals for initiating the control measure and response.

Epidemiology, virology and clinical aspects of hantavirus infections: an overview.

At the end of 2019 and 2020s, a wave of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) epidemics worldwide has catalyzed a new era of 'communicable infectious diseases'. However, the world is not currently prepared to deal with the growing burden of COVID-19, with the unexpected arrival of Hantavirus infection heading to the next several healthcare emergencies in public. Hantavirus is a significant class of zoonotic pathogens of negative-sense single-stranded ribonucleic acid (RNA). Hemorrhagic renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) are the two major clinical manifestations. Till date, there is no effective treatments or vaccines available, public awareness and precautionary measures can help to reduce the spread of hantavirus disease. In this study, we outline the epidemiology, virology, clinical aspects, and existing HFRS and HCPS management approaches. This review will give an understanding of virus-host interactions and will help for the early preparation and effective handling of further outbreaks in an ever-changing environment.

Puumala Virus Infection in Family, Switzerland.

We report 3 cases of Puumala virus infection in a family in Switzerland in January 2019. Clinical manifestations of the infection ranged from mild influenza-like illness to fatal disease. This cluster illustrates the wide range of clinical manifestations of Old World hantavirus infections and the challenge of diagnosing travel-related hemorrhagic fevers.

Time series analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China by using an XGBoost forecasting model.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is still attracting public attention because of its outbreak in various cities in China. Predicting future outbreaks or epidemics disease based on past incidence data can help health departments take targeted measures to prevent diseases in advance. In this study, we propose a multistep prediction strategy based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) for HFRS as an extension of the one-step prediction model. Moreover, the fitting and prediction accuracy of the XGBoost model will be compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model by different evaluation indicators. METHODS: We collected HFRS incidence data from 2004 to 2018 of mainland China. The data from 2004 to 2017 were divided into training sets to establish the seasonal ARIMA model and XGBoost model, while the 2018 data were used to test the prediction performance. In the multistep XGBoost forecasting model, one-hot encoding was used to handle seasonal features. Furthermore, a series of evaluation indices were performed to evaluate the accuracy of the multistep forecast XGBoost model. RESULTS: There were 200,237 HFRS cases in China from 2004 to 2018. A long-term downward trend and bimodal seasonality were identified in the original time series. According to the minimum corrected akaike information criterion (CAIC) value, the optimal ARIMA (3, 1, 0) × (1, 1, 0)12 model is selected. The index ME, RMSE, MAE, MPE, MAPE, and MASE indices of the XGBoost model were higher than those of the ARIMA model in the fitting part, whereas the RMSE of the XGBoost model was lower. The prediction performance evaluation indicators (MAE, MPE, MAPE, RMSE and MASE) of the one-step prediction and multistep prediction XGBoost model were all notably lower than those of the ARIMA model. CONCLUSIONS: The multistep XGBoost prediction model showed a much better prediction accuracy and model stability than the multistep ARIMA prediction model. The XGBoost model performed better in predicting complicated and nonlinear data like HFRS. Additionally, Multistep prediction models are more practical than one-step prediction models in forecasting infectious diseases.

Seoul Virus Infection and Spread in United States Home-Based Ratteries: Rat and Human Testing Results From a Multistate Outbreak Investigation.

BACKGROUND: During 2017, a multistate outbreak investigation occurred after the confirmation of Seoul virus (SEOV) infections in people and pet rats. A total of 147 humans and 897 rats were tested. METHODS: In addition to immunoglobulin (Ig)G and IgM serology and traditional reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), novel quantitative RT-PCR primers/probe were developed, and whole genome sequencing was performed. RESULTS: Seventeen people had SEOV IgM, indicating recent infection; 7 reported symptoms and 3 were hospitalized. All patients recovered. Thirty-one facilities in 11 US states had SEOV infection, and among those with ≥10 rats tested, rat IgG prevalence ranged 2%-70% and SEOV RT-PCR positivity ranged 0%-70%. Human laboratory-confirmed cases were significantly associated with rat IgG positivity and RT-PCR positivity (P = .03 and P = .006, respectively). Genomic sequencing identified >99.5% homology between SEOV sequences in this outbreak, and these were >99% identical to SEOV associated with previous pet rat infections in England, the Netherlands, and France. Frequent trade of rats between home-based ratteries contributed to transmission of SEOV between facilities. CONCLUSIONS: Pet rat owners, breeders, and the healthcare and public health community should be aware and take steps to prevent SEOV transmission in pet rats and to humans. Biosecurity measures and diagnostic testing can prevent further infections.

Active Targeted Surveillance to Identify Sites of Emergence of Hantavirus.

BACKGROUND: Endemic outbreaks of hantaviruses pose a critical public health threat worldwide. Hantaan orthohantavirus (HTNV) causes hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in humans. Using comparative genomic analyses of partial and nearly complete sequences of HTNV from humans and rodents, we were able to localize, with limitations, the putative infection locations for HFRS patients. Partial sequences might not reflect precise phylogenetic positions over the whole-genome sequences; finer granularity of rodent sampling reflects more precisely the circulation of strains. METHODS: Five HFRS specimens were collected. Epidemiological surveys were conducted with the patients during hospitalization. We conducted active surveillance at suspected HFRS outbreak areas. We performed multiplex polymerase chain reaction-based next-generation sequencing to obtain the genomic sequence of HTNV from patients and rodents. The phylogeny of human- and rodent-derived HTNV was generated using the maximum likelihood method. For phylogeographic analyses, the tracing of HTNV genomes from HFRS patients was defined on the bases of epidemiological interviews, phylogenetic patterns of the viruses, and geographic locations of HTNV-positive rodents. RESULTS: The phylogeographic analyses demonstrated genetic clusters of HTNV strains from clinical specimens, with HTNV circulating in rodents at suspected sites of patient infections. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a major shift in molecular epidemiological surveillance of HTNV. Active targeted surveillance was performed at sites of suspected infections, allowing the high-resolution phylogeographic analysis to reveal the site of emergence of HTNV. We posit that this novel approach will make it possible to identify infectious sources, perform disease risk assessment, and implement preparedness against vector-borne viruses.

Seoul Orthohantavirus in Wild Black Rats, Senegal, 2012-2013.

Hantaviruses cause hemorrhagic fever in humans worldwide. However, few hantavirus surveillance campaigns occur in Africa. We detected Seoul orthohantavirus in black rats in Senegal, although we did not find serologic evidence of this disease in humans. These findings highlight the need for increased surveillance of hantaviruses in this region.

SARFIMA model prediction for infectious diseases: application to hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and comparing with SARIMA.

BACKGROUND: The early warning model of infectious diseases plays a key role in prevention and control. This study aims to using seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (SARFIMA) model to predict the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and comparing with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to evaluate its prediction effect. METHODS: Data on notified HFRS cases in Weifang city, Shandong Province were collected from the official website and Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2018. The SARFIMA model considering both the short memory and long memory was performed to fit and predict the HFRS series. Besides, we compared accuracy of fit and prediction between SARFIMA and SARIMA which was used widely in infectious diseases. RESULTS: Model assessments indicated that the SARFIMA model has better goodness of fit (SARFIMA (1, 0.11, 2)(1, 0, 1)12: Akaike information criterion (AIC):-631.31; SARIMA (1, 0, 2)(1, 1, 1)12: AIC: - 227.32) and better predictive ability than the SARIMA model (SARFIMA: root mean square error (RMSE):0.058; SARIMA: RMSE: 0.090). CONCLUSIONS: The SARFIMA model produces superior forecast performance than the SARIMA model for HFRS. Hence, the SARFIMA model may help to improve the forecast of monthly HFRS incidence based on a long-range dataset.