GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance.

This year's Lasker-Bloomberg Public Service Award goes to GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, for providing sustained access to childhood vaccines around the globe, saving millions of lives, and highlighting the power of immunization to prevent disease.

Artists Create Puzzles, Scientists Solve Them.

The Spanish artist Diego Velázquez created a puzzle-painting 360 years ago that to this day remains unsolved, but still mystifies and intrigues. Unlike artists who get their thrills by creating puzzles that stimulate the imagination, scientists get their kicks by solving puzzles that advance biomedical research.

Highest ocean heat in four centuries places Great Barrier Reef in danger.

Mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia between 2016 and 2024 was driven by high sea surface temperatures (SST)1. The likelihood of temperature-induced bleaching is a key determinant for the future threat status of the GBR2, but the long-term context of recent temperatures in the region is unclear. Here we show that the January-March Coral Sea heat extremes in 2024, 2017 and 2020 (in order of descending mean SST anomalies) were the warmest in 400 years, exceeding the 95th-percentile uncertainty limit of our reconstructed pre-1900 maximum. The 2016, 2004 and 2022 events were the next warmest, exceeding the 90th-percentile limit. Climate model analysis confirms that human influence on the climate system is responsible for the rapid warming in recent decades. This attribution, together with the recent ocean temperature extremes, post-1900 warming trend and observed mass coral bleaching, shows that the existential threat to the GBR ecosystem from anthropogenic climate change is now realized. Without urgent intervention, the iconic GBR is at risk of experiencing temperatures conducive to near-annual coral bleaching3, with negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems services. A continuation on the current trajectory would further threaten the ecological function4 and outstanding universal value5 of one of Earth's greatest natural wonders.

Ancient Rapanui genomes reveal resilience and pre-European contact with the Americas.

Rapa Nui (also known as Easter Island) is one of the most isolated inhabited places in the world. It has captured the imagination of many owing to its archaeological record, which includes iconic megalithic statues called moai1. Two prominent contentions have arisen from the extensive study of Rapa Nui. First, the history of the Rapanui has been presented as a warning tale of resource overexploitation that would have culminated in a major population collapse-the 'ecocide' theory2-4. Second, the possibility of trans-Pacific voyages to the Americas pre-dating European contact is still debated5-7. Here, to address these questions, we reconstructed the genomic history of the Rapanui on the basis of 15 ancient Rapanui individuals that we radiocarbon dated (1670-1950 CE) and whole-genome sequenced (0.4-25.6×). We find that these individuals are Polynesian in origin and most closely related to present-day Rapanui, a finding that will contribute to repatriation efforts. Through effective population size reconstructions and extensive population genetics simulations, we reject a scenario involving a severe population bottleneck during the 1600s, as proposed by the ecocide theory. Furthermore, the ancient and present-day Rapanui carry similar proportions of Native American admixture (about 10%). Using a Bayesian approach integrating genetic and radiocarbon dates, we estimate that this admixture event occurred about 1250-1430 CE.

Entwined African and Asian genetic roots of medieval peoples of the Swahili coast.

The urban peoples of the Swahili coast traded across eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and were among the first practitioners of Islam among sub-Saharan people1,2. The extent to which these early interactions between Africans and non-Africans were accompanied by genetic exchange remains unknown. Here we report ancient DNA data for 80 individuals from 6 medieval and early modern (AD 1250-1800) coastal towns and an inland town after AD 1650. More than half of the DNA of many of the individuals from coastal towns originates from primarily female ancestors from Africa, with a large proportion-and occasionally more than half-of the DNA coming from Asian ancestors. The Asian ancestry includes components associated with Persia and India, with 80-90% of the Asian DNA originating from Persian men. Peoples of African and Asian origins began to mix by about AD 1000, coinciding with the large-scale adoption of Islam. Before about AD 1500, the Southwest Asian ancestry was mainly Persian-related, consistent with the narrative of the Kilwa Chronicle, the oldest history told by people of the Swahili coast3. After this time, the sources of DNA became increasingly Arabian, consistent with evidence of growing interactions with southern Arabia4. Subsequent interactions with Asian and African people further changed the ancestry of present-day people of the Swahili coast in relation to the medieval individuals whose DNA we sequenced.

Genetic continuity and change among the Indigenous peoples of California.

Before the colonial period, California harboured more language variation than all of Europe, and linguistic and archaeological analyses have led to many hypotheses to explain this diversity1. We report genome-wide data from 79 ancient individuals from California and 40 ancient individuals from Northern Mexico dating to 7,400-200 years before present (BP). Our analyses document long-term genetic continuity between people living on the Northern Channel Islands of California and the adjacent Santa Barbara mainland coast from 7,400 years BP to modern Chumash groups represented by individuals who lived around 200 years BP. The distinctive genetic lineages that characterize present-day and ancient people from Northwest Mexico increased in frequency in Southern and Central California by 5,200 years BP, providing evidence for northward migrations that are candidates for spreading Uto-Aztecan languages before the dispersal of maize agriculture from Mexico2-4. Individuals from Baja California share more alleles with the earliest individual from Central California in the dataset than with later individuals from Central California, potentially reflecting an earlier linguistic substrate, whose impact on local ancestry was diluted by later migrations from inland regions1,5. After 1,600 years BP, ancient individuals from the Channel Islands lived in communities with effective sizes similar to those in pre-agricultural Caribbean and Patagonia, and smaller than those on the California mainland and in sampled regions of Mexico.

Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change.

A large scholarship currently holds that before the onset of anthropogenic global warming, natural climatic changes long provoked subsistence crises and, occasionally, civilizational collapses among human societies. This scholarship, which we term the 'history of climate and society' (HCS), is pursued by researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians, linguists and palaeoclimatologists. We argue that, despite the wide interest in HCS, the field suffers from numerous biases, and often does not account for the local effects and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of past climate changes or the challenges of interpreting historical sources. Here we propose an interdisciplinary framework for uncovering climate-society interactions that emphasizes the mechanics by which climate change has influenced human history, and the uncertainties inherent in discerning that influence across different spatiotemporal scales. Although we acknowledge that climate change has sometimes had destructive effects on past societies, the application of our framework to numerous case studies uncovers five pathways by which populations survived-and often thrived-in the face of climatic pressures.

Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1-4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the twentieth century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6. However, confidence in predictions of future IOD change is limited by known biases in IOD models7 and the lack of information on natural IOD variability before anthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is strong and unambiguous, to produce a semi-continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of the last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were rare before 1960. However, the most extreme event on record (1997) is not unprecedented, because at least one event that was approximately 27 to 42 per cent larger occurred naturally during the seventeenth century. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between the variability of the IOD and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was characterized by weak interannual variability before approximately 1590, which probably altered teleconnection patterns, and by anomalously strong variability during the seventeenth century, which was associated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency towards clustering of positive IOD events is evident in our reconstruction, which-together with the identification of extreme IOD variability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling-may have implications for improving seasonal and decadal predictions and managing the climate risks of future IOD variability.

Isotopic constraint on the twentieth-century increase in tropospheric ozone.

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a key component of air pollution and an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas1. During the twentieth century, the proliferation of the internal combustion engine, rapid industrialization and land-use change led to a global-scale increase in O3 concentrations2,3; however, the magnitude of this increase is uncertain. Atmospheric chemistry models typically predict4-7 an increase in the tropospheric O3 burden of between 25 and 50 per cent since 1900, whereas direct measurements made in the late nineteenth century indicate that surface O3 mixing ratios increased by up to 300 per cent8-10 over that time period. However, the accuracy and diagnostic power of these measurements remains controversial2. Here we use a record of the clumped-isotope composition of molecular oxygen (18O18O in O2) trapped in polar firn and ice from 1590 to 2016 AD, as well as atmospheric chemistry model simulations, to constrain changes in tropospheric O3 concentrations. We find that during the second half of the twentieth century, the proportion of 18O18O in O2 decreased by 0.03 ± 0.02 parts per thousand (95 per cent confidence interval) below its 1590-1958 AD mean, which implies that tropospheric O3 increased by less than 40 per cent during that time. These results corroborate model predictions of global-scale increases in surface pollution and vegetative stress caused by increasing anthropogenic emissions of O3 precursors4,5,11. We also estimate that the radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 since 1850 AD is probably less than +0.4 watts per square metre, consistent with results from recent climate modelling studies12.

No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era.

Earth's climate history is often understood by breaking it down into constituent climatic epochs1. Over the Common Era (the past 2,000 years) these epochs, such as the Little Ice Age2-4, have been characterized as having occurred at the same time across extensive spatial scales5. Although the rapid global warming seen in observations over the past 150 years does show nearly global coherence6, the spatiotemporal coherence of climate epochs earlier in the Common Era has yet to be robustly tested. Here we use global palaeoclimate reconstructions for the past 2,000 years, and find no evidence for preindustrial globally coherent cold and warm epochs. In particular, we find that the coldest epoch of the last millennium-the putative Little Ice Age-is most likely to have experienced the coldest temperatures during the fifteenth century in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, during the seventeenth century in northwestern Europe and southeastern North America, and during the mid-nineteenth century over most of the remaining regions. Furthermore, the spatial coherence that does exist over the preindustrial Common Era is consistent with the spatial coherence of stochastic climatic variability. This lack of spatiotemporal coherence indicates that preindustrial forcing was not sufficient to produce globally synchronous extreme temperatures at multidecadal and centennial timescales. By contrast, we find that the warmest period of the past two millennia occurred during the twentieth century for more than 98 per cent of the globe. This provides strong evidence that anthropogenic global warming is not only unparalleled in terms of absolute temperatures5, but also unprecedented in spatial consistency within the context of the past 2,000 years.

Representativeness is crucial for inferring demographic processes from online genealogies: Evidence from lifespan dynamics.

Crowdsourced online genealogies have an unprecedented potential to shed light on long-run population dynamics, if analyzed properly. We investigate whether the historical mortality dynamics of males in familinx, a popular genealogical dataset, are representative of the general population, or whether they are closer to those of an elite subpopulation in two territories. The first territory is the German Empire, with a low level of genealogical coverage relative to the total population size, while the second territory is The Netherlands, with a higher level of genealogical coverage relative to the population. We find that, for the period around the turn of the 20th century (for which benchmark national life tables are available), mortality is consistently lower and more homogeneous in familinx than in the general population. For that time period, the mortality levels in familinx resemble those of elites in the German Empire, while they are closer to those in national life tables in The Netherlands. For the period before the 19th century, the mortality levels in familinx mirror those of the elites in both territories. We identify the low coverage of the total population and the oversampling of elites in online genealogies as potential explanations for these findings. Emerging digital data may revolutionize our knowledge of historical demographic dynamics, but only if we understand their potential uses and limitations.

The story of how cancer got its name.

The disease called cancer was named after the animal known as the crab. According to ancient tradition, cancer was named after the crab because of the aggressivity or obstinacy of the crab or because of the appearance of the crab's tangled legs.

Sons Shorten Mother's Lifespan in Preindustrial Families with a High Level of Infant Mortality.

AbstractIn dimorphic vertebrates where males are larger than females, the energetic costs of producing and rearing sons can exceed those of daughters. In humans, differences in maternal energy intake suggest that sons require 10% and 7% more energy than daughters during pregnancy and lactation, respectively. Due to a trade-off between reproduction and somatic maintenance, having sons is expected to have a more pronounced detrimental impact on a mother's lifespan than having daughters. A limitation of previous studies investigating this hypothesis is that the increased mortality cost of having sons was assumed to affect all mothers equally. Using a dataset from a preindustrial Quebec population monitored over two centuries, we found that the number of sons decreased postmenopausal lifespan only in mothers experiencing high infant mortality. Our study highlights the importance of interindividual variation in environmental conditions and maternal health when studying effects of offspring sex on reproductive costs.

Reviewing the Rich History of Fibrin Clot Research with a Focus on Clinical Relevance.

Fibrin, described on a single-lens microscopy for the first time by Malpighi in 1666 and named by de Fourcroy, has been extensively studied by biochemists, biophysicists, and more recently by clinicians who recognized that fibrin is the major component of most thrombi. Elucidation of key reactions leading to fibrin clot formation in the 1950s and 1960s grew interest in the clinical relevance of altered fibrin characteristics. Implementation of scanning electron microscopy to image fibrin clots in 1947 and clot permeation studies in the 1970s to evaluate an average pore size enabled plasma clot characterization in cohorts of patients. Unfavorably altered fibrin clot structure was demonstrated by Blombäck's group in coronary artery disease in 1992 and in diabetes in 1996. Fifteen years ago, similar plasma fibrin clot alterations were reported in patients following venous thromboembolism. Multiple myeloma was the first malignant disease to be found to lead to abnormal fibrin clot phenotype in the 1970s. Apart from anticoagulant agents, in 1998, aspirin was first shown to increase fibrin clot permeability in cardiovascular patients. The current review presents key data on the rich history of fibrin research, in particular, those that first documented abnormal fibrin clot properties in a variety of human disease states, as well as factors affecting fibrin phenotype.

Medical findings and congenital anomalies in Vermeer's paintings.

The 17th century was a time of scientific discovery in Europe. Leading academic centers provided the general population with an opportunity to view anatomic dissections of human bodies. Rather than portray idealized versions of individuals, Dutch painters were committed to accurately representing their models. This was true for Johannes Vermeer. The 2023 exhibition of Vermeer's paintings at the Rijksmuseum in Amsterdam provided an unprecedented opportunity to observe 28 of his 37 existing paintings simultaneously in person. Here the authors suggest that in at least eight paintings a visibly pregnant woman is present. Vermeer's wife was pregnant or lactating most of the time during their 22-year marriage. Further, evidence of specific medical findings and congenital anomalies such as polydactyly, ectrodactyly, alopecia, kyphosis, and hyperthyroidism were observed in the paintings. These have not been previously reported in the medical or art history literature.

Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures.

Cooling during most of the past two millennia has been widely recognized and has been inferred to be the dominant global temperature trend of the past 11,700 years (the Holocene epoch). However, long-term cooling has been difficult to reconcile with global forcing, and climate models consistently simulate long-term warming. The divergence between simulations and reconstructions emerges primarily for northern mid-latitudes, for which pronounced cooling has been inferred from marine and coastal records using multiple approaches. Here we show that temperatures reconstructed from sub-fossil pollen from 642 sites across North America and Europe closely match simulations, and that long-term warming, not cooling, defined the Holocene until around 2,000 years ago. The reconstructions indicate that evidence of long-term cooling was limited to North Atlantic records. Early Holocene temperatures on the continents were more than two degrees Celsius below those of the past two millennia, consistent with the simulated effects of remnant ice sheets in the climate model Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3). CCSM3 simulates increases in 'growing degree days'-a measure of the accumulated warmth above five degrees Celsius per year-of more than 300 kelvin days over the Holocene, consistent with inferences from the pollen data. It also simulates a decrease in mean summer temperatures of more than two degrees Celsius, which correlates with reconstructed marine trends and highlights the potential importance of the different subseasonal sensitivities of the records. Despite the differing trends, pollen- and marine-based reconstructions are correlated at millennial-to-centennial scales, probably in response to ice-sheet and meltwater dynamics, and to stochastic dynamics similar to the temperature variations produced by CCSM3. Although our results depend on a single source of palaeoclimatic data (pollen) and a single climate-model simulation, they reinforce the notion that climate models can adequately simulate climates for periods other than the present-day. They also demonstrate that amplified warming in recent decades increased temperatures above the mean of any century during the past 11,000 years.

Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that has an essential role in Earth's climate, redistributing heat and influencing the carbon cycle1, 2. The AMOC has been shown to be weakening in recent years 1 ; this decline may reflect decadal-scale variability in convection in the Labrador Sea, but short observational datasets preclude a longer-term perspective on the modern state and variability of Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC1, 3-5. Here we provide several lines of palaeo-oceanographic evidence that Labrador Sea deep convection and the AMOC have been anomalously weak over the past 150 years or so (since the end of the Little Ice Age, LIA, approximately AD 1850) compared with the preceding 1,500 years. Our palaeoclimate reconstructions indicate that the transition occurred either as a predominantly abrupt shift towards the end of the LIA, or as a more gradual, continued decline over the past 150 years; this ambiguity probably arises from non-AMOC influences on the various proxies or from the different sensitivities of these proxies to individual components of the AMOC. We suggest that enhanced freshwater fluxes from the Arctic and Nordic seas towards the end of the LIA-sourced from melting glaciers and thickened sea ice that developed earlier in the LIA-weakened Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC. The lack of a subsequent recovery may have resulted from hysteresis or from twentieth-century melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet 6 . Our results suggest that recent decadal variability in Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC has occurred during an atypical, weak background state. Future work should aim to constrain the roles of internal climate variability and early anthropogenic forcing in the AMOC weakening described here.

Inter-sexual Mate Competition in Humans: A Historical Example from Seventeenth Century Portugal.

Inter-sexual mate competition occurs any time opposite-sex individuals simultaneously seek to acquire or maintain exclusive access to the same sexual partner. This underappreciated form of mate competition has been anecdotally documented in several avian and mammalian species, and systematically described among Japanese macaques and humans. Here, we extend the concept of inter-sexual mate competition by reassessing a remarkable series of Portuguese letters, penned in 1664 and later discovered and translated by Mott and Assunção (J Homosex 16:91-104, 1989). The letters comprise one side of a correspondence between two males, former lovers who were scrutinized by the Portuguese Inquisition. After ending the relationship, the recipient of the letters was betrothed to a woman, which provoked a jealous response from his jilted male lover and pleas to reunite. We argue that the letters portray a prolonged sequence of inter-sexual mate competition in which a male and female competitor vied for the same man. An established taxonomy of mate competition tactics was applied to the behavior of both competitors illustrating many parallels with contemporary examples of inter-sexual mate competition. Through this comparison, we show that modern mate competition taxonomies can be fruitfully applied to historical texts and that inter-sexual mate competition occurred hundreds of years before the present. Other examples of inter-sexual mate competition are likely to exist in the historical record, providing a rich source of scientific information if appropriate theoretical frameworks are employed. Indeed, any time individuals are attracted to sexual partners who behave in a bisexual manner, then inter-sexual mate competition can ensue with members of the other sex.

Proto-Endocrinological Theories of Masculinity/Femininity (1490-1904).

From the mid-seventeenth century, resorption of a testicular "ferment" and resorption of some part of the semen constituted reputable accounts of secondary sexual characteristics. Only in the early twentieth century was the latter, "recrementitious secretion" theory, explicitly considered superseded by one of internal secretion, an advance ushering in the hormone era. A reconstruction of these proto-endocrinological concepts is offered onward from the first, 1490 print edition of Galen's On Semen. Early modern physicians picking up from Galen deliberated widely on the medium and pathway of male and female testicular influences on "the entire body," including the mind, causing "femininity" and "masculinity" in physical, mental-temperamental, and behavioral terms. A switch is discernible from "heat and strength" (Galen) to blood-borne "virility" or testicular vapor (such as proposed in 1564 by Tomás Rodrigues da Veiga), to iatrochemical postulations of a "seminal ferment" (suggested in the late 1650s, perhaps independently, by Thomas Willis at Oxford and Lambert van Velthuysen in Utrecht), finally to a "seminal recrement" or "reabsorbed semen" concept soon after (emergent in the posthumous work of Giovanni Alfonso Borelli, among others). During the late eighteenth century, mounting controversy surrounded both the very idea of that concept and the involved anatomical pathways, informed by multiple experiments.

A depiction of poliomyelitis in a 17th -century Piedmontese fresco?

INTRODUCTION: A potential representation of poliomyelitis is investigated in an Italian artwork. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 17th century Piedmontese fresco is analyzed by combining historico-medical, palaeopathological and clinical approaches. Alternative diagnoses are considered. RESULTS, DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The man appearing in the fresco holding a crutch is characterized by an atrophic left leg reminiscent of poliomyelitic atrophic. Other congenital anomalies or cerebrovascular causes appear less likely. A reflection on the difficulty of retrospectively diagnosis poliomyelitis is offered.