Temporal variation in the effect of heat and the role of the Italian heat prevention plan.
Public Health
; 161: 154-162, 2018 Aug.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29751981
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
The aim of the article is to evaluate the temporal change in the effect of heat on mortality in Italy in the last 12 years after the introduction of the national heat plan. STUDYDESIGN:
Time series analysis.METHODS:
Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the association between maximum apparent temperature and mortality in 23 Italian cities included in the national heat plan in four study periods (before the introduction of the heat plan and three periods after the plan was in place between 2005 and 2016). The effect (relative risks) and impact (attributable fraction [AF] and number of heat-related deaths) were estimated for mild summer temperatures (20th and 75th percentile maximum apparent temperature [Tappmax]) and extreme summer temperatures (75th and 99th percentile Tappmax) in each study period. A survey of the heat preventive measures adopted over time in the cities included in the Italian heat plan was carried out to better describe adaptation measures and response.RESULTS:
Although heat still has an impact on mortality in Italian cities, a reduction in heat-related mortality is observed progressively over time. In terms of the impact, the heat AF related to extreme temperatures declined from 6.3% in the period 1999-2002 to 4.1% in 2013-2016. Considering the entire temperature range (20th vs 99th percentile), the total number of heat-related deaths spared over the entire study period was 1900.CONCLUSIONS:
Considering future climate change and the health burden associated to heat waves, it is important to promote adaptation measures by showing the potential effectiveness of heat prevention plans.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Mortality
/
Hot Temperature
/
National Health Programs
Type of study:
Etiology_studies
/
Evaluation_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
En
Journal:
Public Health
Year:
2018
Type:
Article