Holistic Approach to the Uncertainty in Shelf Life Prediction of Frozen Foods at Dynamic Cold Chain Conditions.
Foods
; 9(6)2020 Jun 02.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32498236
ABSTRACT
Systematic kinetic modeling is required to predict frozen systems behavior in cold dynamic conditions. A one-step procedure, where all data are used simultaneously in a non-linear algorithm, is implemented to estimate the kinetic parameters of both primary and secondary models. Compared to the traditional two-step methodology, more precise estimates are obtained, and the calculated parameter uncertainty can be introduced in realistic shelf life predictions, as a tool for cold chain optimization. Additionally, significant variability of the real distribution/storage conditions is recorded, and must be also incorporated in a kinetic prediction scheme. The applicability of the approach is theoretically demonstrated in an analysis of data on frozen green peas Vitamin C content, for the calculation of joint confidence intervals of kinetic parameters. A stochastic algorithm is implemented, through a double Monte Carlo scheme incorporating the temperature variability during distribution, drawn from cold chain databases. Assuming a distribution scenario of 130 days in the cold chain, 93 ± 110 days remaining shelf life was predicted compared to 180 days assumed based on the use by date. Overall, through the theoretical case study investigated, the uncertainty of models' parameters and cold chain dynamics were incorporated into shelf life assessment, leading to more realistic predictions.
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Language:
En
Journal:
Foods
Year:
2020
Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Greece