The impact of variation in out-of-hours doctors' referral practices: a Norwegian registry-based observational study.

A major task for primary care doctors working out-of-hours (OOH) is to refer patients in need of acute specialized care to hospital. Acute referrals capture the major dilemma of not missing critically ill patients without overloading the hospital capacity. There is a known variation in referral practice between OOH doctors, and here we asked what impact this variation has for OOH patients. We divided OOH doctors in Norway into 4 groups according to their referral practice low, medium-low, medium-high, and high. Low had few referrals as a proportion of the total consultations, while the high group had many. If the patient saw a doctor in the high-referral group, there was an increased likelihood to be referred to hospital and given a symptom diagnosis, indicating that no severe disease was revealed. High-referral practice therefore may lead to more avoidable admissions. However, we also found the same but weaker effect for some critical conditions (heart infarction, acute appendicitis, pulmonary embolism, and stroke). Therefore, a low-referral practice may increase the risk of critical conditions being overlooked. These aspects of referral practice variation should be taken into consideration and call for strengthening the OOH framework for decision making regarding acute referrals.