Understanding influenza virus-specific epidemiological properties by analysis of experimental human infections.
Epidemiol Infect
; 138(6): 825-35, 2010 Jun.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-19919730
ABSTRACT
This study aimed to estimate the natural history and transmission parameters based on experimental viral shedding and symptom dynamics in order to understand the key epidemiological factors that characterize influenza (sub)type epidemics. A simple statistical algorithm was developed by combining a well-defined mathematical scheme of epidemiological determinants and experimental human influenza infection. Here we showed that (i) the observed viral shedding dynamics mapped successfully the estimated time-profile of infectiousness and (ii) the profile of asymptomatic probability was obtained based on observed temporal variation of symptom scores. Our derived estimates permitted evaluation of relationships between various model-derived and data-based estimations, allowing evaluation of trends proposed previously but not tested fully. As well as providing insights into the dynamics of viral shedding and symptom scores, a more profound understanding of influenza epidemiological parameters and determinants could enhance the viral kinetic studies of influenza during infection in the respiratory tracts of experimentally infected individuals.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Gripe Humana
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemiol Infect
Asunto de la revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Año:
2010
Tipo del documento:
Article