Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements.
Glob Health Action
; 5: 23-32, 2012 11 23.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-23195509
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Many studies have established a link between weather (primarily temperature) and daily mortality in developed countries. However, little is known about this relationship in urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa.OBJECTIVES:
The objective of this study was to describe the relationship between daily weather and mortality in Nairobi, Kenya, and to evaluate this relationship with regard to cause of death, age, and sex.METHODS:
We utilized mortality data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System and applied time-series models to study the relationship between daily weather and mortality for a population of approximately 60,000 during the period 2003-2008. We used a distributed lag approach to model the delayed effect of weather on mortality, stratified by cause of death, age, and sex.RESULTS:
Increasing temperatures (above 75th percentile) were significantly associated with mortality in children and non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths. We found all-cause mortality of shorter lag of same day and previous day to increase by 3.0% for a 1 degree decrease from the 25th percentile of 18°C (not statistically significant). Mortality among people aged 50+ and children aged below 5 years appeared most susceptible to cold compared to other age groups. Rainfall, in the lag period of 0-29 days, increased all-cause mortality in general, but was found strongest related to mortality among females. Low temperatures were associated with deaths due to acute infections, whereas rainfall was associated with all-cause pneumonia and NCD deaths.CONCLUSIONS:
Increases in mortality were associated with both hot and cold weather as well as rainfall in Nairobi, but the relationship differed with regard to age, sex, and cause of death. Our findings indicate that weather-related mortality is a public health concern for the population in the informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, especially if current trends in climate change continue.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Tiempo (Meteorología)
/
Mortalidad
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Screening_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
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Infant
/
Male
/
Middle aged
País/Región como asunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Glob Health Action
Año:
2012
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Kenia