Sweden SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking and snus prevalence and attributable deaths.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study examines the effect of past tobacco control policies and projects the effect of future policies on smoking and snus use prevalence and associated premature mortality in Sweden. METHODS: The established SimSmoke model was adapted with population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data from Sweden. SimSmoke evaluates the effect of taxes, smoke-free air, mass media, marketing bans, warning labels, cessation treatment and youth access policies on smoking and snus prevalence and the number of deaths attributable to smoking and snus use by gender from 2010 to 2040. RESULTS: Sweden SimSmoke estimates that significant inroads to reducing smoking and snus prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tax increases, especially when combined with other policies. Smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 26% in the first few years, reaching a 37% reduction within 30 years. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost 54 500 lives will be lost in Sweden due to tobacco use by the year 2040. CONCLUSION: Besides presenting the benefits of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy, the model identifies gaps in surveillance and evaluation that can help better focus tobacco control policy in Sweden.