Prognostic factors in patients receiving third line targeted therapy for metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Several prognostic models have been proposed for metastatic renal cell carcinoma but none has been validated in patients who receive third line targeted agents. We evaluated prognostic factors in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma who received a third line targeted agent. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed data on 2,065 patients with clear cell metastatic renal cell carcinoma who were treated with targeted therapy at a total of 23 centers in Italy. Included in final analysis were 281 patients treated with 3 targeted agents. Overall survival was the main outcome. Cox proportional hazards regression followed by bootstrap validation was used to identify independent prognostic factors. RESULTS: Three clinical characteristics (ECOG performance status greater than 1, metastasis at diagnosis and liver metastasis) and 2 biochemical factors (hemoglobin less than the lower limit of normal and neutrophil count greater than the upper limit of normal, respectively) were prognostic. Patients were classified into 3 risk categories, including low-zero or 1, intermediate-2 and high risk-more than 2 risk factors. Median overall survival was 19.7, 10.1 and 5.5 months, and 1-year overall survival was 71%, 43% and 15%, respectively. The major limitation was the retrospective nature of this study and absent external validation. CONCLUSIONS: This nomogram included clinical and biochemical prognostic factors. In clinical trials it may be useful to select patients and define the prognosis.