Cross-immunity between strains explains the dynamical pattern of paramyxoviruses.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 112(43): 13396-400, 2015 Oct 27.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-26460003
Viral respiratory tract diseases pose serious public health problems. Our ability to predict and thus, be able to prepare for outbreaks is strained by the complex factors driving the prevalence and severity of these diseases. The abundance of diseases and transmission dynamics of strains are not only affected by external factors, such as weather, but also driven by interactions among viruses mediated by human behavior and immunity. To untangle the complex out-of-phase annual and biennial pattern of three common paramyxoviruses, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), Human Parainfluenza Virus (HPIV), and Human Metapneumovirus (hMPV), we adopt a theoretical approach that integrates ecological and immunological mechanisms of disease interactions. By estimating parameters from multiyear time series of laboratory-confirmed cases from the intermountain west region of the United States and using statistical inference, we show that models of immune-mediated interactions better explain the data than those based on ecological competition by convalescence. The strength of cross-protective immunity among viruses is correlated with their genetic distance in the phylogenetic tree of the paramyxovirus family.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Virus Sincitiales Respiratorios
/
Respirovirus
/
Infecciones por Paramyxoviridae
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Modelos Inmunológicos
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Metapneumovirus
/
Protección Cruzada
Tipo de estudio:
Prevalence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Año:
2015
Tipo del documento:
Article