Optimizing Real-Time Vaccine Allocation in a Stochastic SIR Model.
PLoS One
; 11(4): e0152950, 2016.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-27043931
ABSTRACT
Real-time vaccination following an outbreak can effectively mitigate the damage caused by an infectious disease. However, in many cases, available resources are insufficient to vaccinate the entire at-risk population, logistics result in delayed vaccine deployment, and the interaction between members of different cities facilitates a wide spatial spread of infection. Limited vaccine, time delays, and interaction (or coupling) of cities lead to tradeoffs that impact the overall magnitude of the epidemic. These tradeoffs mandate investigation of optimal strategies that minimize the severity of the epidemic by prioritizing allocation of vaccine to specific subpopulations. We use an SIR model to describe the disease dynamics of an epidemic which breaks out in one city and spreads to another. We solve a master equation to determine the resulting probability distribution of the final epidemic size. We then identify tradeoffs between vaccine, time delay, and coupling, and we determine the optimal vaccination protocols resulting from these tradeoffs.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles
/
Brotes de Enfermedades
/
Procesos Estocásticos
/
Vacunación
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS One
Asunto de la revista:
CIENCIA
/
MEDICINA
Año:
2016
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos