Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.
Popul Environ
; 38(1): 47-71, 2016 Sep.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-27594725
ABSTRACT
This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy 1) a reference, 'normal' scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Qualitative_research
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Popul Environ
Año:
2016
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos