An Assessment and Extension of the Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age-Period-Cohort Models.
Demography
; 54(2): 721-743, 2017 04.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-28281275
ABSTRACT
Many methods have been proposed to solve the age-period-cohort (APC) linear identification problem, but most are not theoretically informed and may lead to biased estimators of APC effects. One exception is the mechanism-based approach recently proposed and based on Pearl's front-door criterion; this approach ensures consistent APC effect estimators in the presence of a complete set of intermediate variables between one of age, period, cohort, and the outcome of interest, as long as the assumed parametric models for all the relevant causal pathways are correct. Through a simulation study mimicking APC data on cardiovascular mortality, we demonstrate possible pitfalls that users of the mechanism-based approach may encounter under realistic conditions namely, when (1) the set of available intermediate variables is incomplete, (2) intermediate variables are affected by two or more of the APC variables (while this feature is not acknowledged in the analysis), and (3) unaccounted confounding is present between intermediate variables and the outcome. Furthermore, we show how the mechanism-based approach can be extended beyond the originally proposed linear and probit regression models to incorporate all generalized linear models, as well as nonlinearities in the predictors, using Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the observed biases resulting from departures from underlying assumptions, we formulate guidelines for the application of the mechanism-based approach (extended or not).
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Proyectos de Investigación
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Modelos Estadísticos
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Exactitud de los Datos
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
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Health_economic_evaluation
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Demography
Año:
2017
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Países Bajos