Risk Model Development and Validation for Prediction of Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease in a North American Population.
J Am Heart Assoc
; 8(11): e011319, 2019 06 04.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31130036
ABSTRACT
Background Accurate prediction of coronary artery aneurysms ( CAAs ) in patients with Kawasaki disease remains challenging in North American cohorts. We sought to develop and validate a risk model for CAA prediction. Methods and Results A binary outcome of CAA was defined as left anterior descending or right coronary artery Z score ≥2.5 at 2 to 8 weeks after fever onset in a development cohort (n=903) and a validation cohort (n=185) of patients with Kawasaki disease. Associations of baseline clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables with later CAA were assessed in the development cohort using logistic regression. Discrimination (c statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) of the final model were evaluated. A practical risk score assigning points to each variable in the final model was created based on model coefficients from the development cohort. Predictors of CAAs at 2 to 8 weeks were baseline Z score of left anterior descending or right coronary artery ≥2.0, age <6 months, Asian race, and C-reactive protein ≥13 mg/ dL (c=0.82 in the development cohort, c=0.93 in the validation cohort). The CAA risk score assigned 2 points for baseline Z score of left anterior descending or right coronary artery ≥2.0 and 1 point for each of the other variables, with creation of low- (0-1), moderate- (2), and high- (3-5) risk groups. The odds of CAA s were 16-fold greater in the high- versus the low-risk groups in the development cohort (odds ratio, 16.4; 95% CI , 9.71-27.7 [ P<0.001]), and >40-fold greater in the validation cohort (odds ratio, 44.0; 95% CI, 10.8-180 [ P<0.001]). Conclusions Our risk model for CAA in Kawasaki disease consisting of baseline demographic, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables had excellent predictive utility and should undergo prospective testing.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Aneurisma Coronario
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Síndrome Mucocutáneo Linfonodular
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
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Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
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Child
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Child, preschool
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Female
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Humans
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Infant
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Male
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Am Heart Assoc
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article