Impacts by expansion of human settlements on nature reserves in China.

Expansion of human settlements affects nature reserves in various ways. Planning ahead can help to divert or mitigate the impacts but a good understanding of these impacts is a prerequisite. In this study, we estimated the impacts caused by the expansion of human settlements on nature reserves in China by 2050 under different development and conservation scenarios. Our results show that 5016 km2 of nature reserves may be encroached by the expansion of human settlements under the scenario of high growth and weak protection, a ten-fold increase compared to 2010. In addition, new settlements may fragment landscapes in 243 nature reserves and increase the level of fragmentation in 109 nature reserves. Furthermore, expansion of human settlements in surrounding areas may expose 164 nature reserves to threats of human activities and increase the threat levels to 540 nature reserves. The impacts will be lower if protection is stronger or economic growth is slower. Among all nature reserves, those administered at the county level will be affected the most. Nature reserves that protect forests and inland wetlands will be affected more than nature reserves protecting other objects. Nature reserves in East and South China will be influenced more than reserves in other regions. Findings from China show that the expansion of human settlements poses serious challenges to nature reserves in the future, especially in places where economic growth is fast and nature reserves are weakly protected. Proactive conservation strategies have to be developed and implemented forcefully to manage these impacts. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the potential conflict between human settlements and nature reserves.