Predicting Progression in Parkinson's Disease Using Baseline and 1-Year Change Measures.
J Parkinsons Dis
; 9(4): 665-679, 2019.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31450510
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Improved prediction of Parkinson's disease (PD) progression is needed to support clinical decision-making and to accelerate research trials.OBJECTIVES:
To examine whether baseline measures and their 1-year change predict longer-term progression in early PD.METHODS:
Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative study data were used. Participants had disease duration ≤2 years, abnormal dopamine transporter (DAT) imaging, and were untreated with PD medications. Baseline and 1-year change in clinical, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and imaging measures were evaluated as candidate predictors of longer-term (up to 5 years) change in Movement Disorders Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) score and DAT specific binding ratios (SBR) using linear mixed-effects models.RESULTS:
Among 413 PD participants, median follow-up was 5 years. Change in MDS-UPDRS from year-2 to last follow-up was associated with disease duration (ß=â0.351; 95% CIâ=â0.146, 0.555), male gender (ß=â3.090; 95% CIâ=â0.310, 5.869), and baseline (ß=â-0.199; 95% CIâ=â-0.315, -0.082) and 1-year change (ß=â0.540; 95% CIâ=â0.423, 0.658) in MDS-UPDRS; predictors in the model accounted for 17.6% of the variance in outcome. Predictors of percent change in mean SBR from year-2 to last follow-up included baseline rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder score (ß=â-0.6229; 95% CIâ=â-1.2910, 0.0452), baseline (ß=â7.232; 95% CIâ=â2.268, 12.195) and 1-year change (ß=â45.918; 95% CIâ=â35.994,55.843) in mean striatum SBR, and 1-year change in autonomic symptom score (ß=â-0.325;95% CIâ=â-0.695, 0.045); predictors in the model accounted for 44.1% of the variance.CONCLUSIONS:
Baseline clinical, CSF, and imaging measures in early PD predicted change in MDS-UPDRS and dopamine-transporter binding, but the predictive value of the models was low. Adding the short-term change of possible predictors improved the predictive value, especially for modeling change in dopamine-transporter binding.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Enfermedad de Parkinson
/
Progresión de la Enfermedad
Tipo de estudio:
Clinical_trials
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Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
/
Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Parkinsons Dis
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos