Quantifying the spatial risk of Avian Influenza introduction into British poultry by wild birds.
Sci Rep
; 9(1): 19973, 2019 12 27.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31882592
ABSTRACT
The transmission of pathogens across the interface between wildlife and livestock presents a challenge to the development of effective surveillance and control measures. Wild birds, especially waterbirds such as the Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are considered to be the natural hosts of Avian Influenza (AI), and are presumed to pose one of the most likely vectors for incursion of AI into European poultry flocks. We have developed a generic quantitative risk map, derived from the classical epidemiological risk equation, to describe the relative, spatial risk of disease incursion into poultry flocks via wild birds. We then assessed the risk for AI incursion into British flocks. The risk map suggests that the majority of AI incursion risk is highly clustered within certain areas of Britain, including in the east, the south west and the coastal north-west of England. The clustering of high risk areas concentrates total risk in a relatively small land area; the top 33% of cells contribute over 80% of total incursion risk. This suggests that targeted risk-based sampling in a relatively small geographical area could be a much more effective and cost-efficient approach than representative sampling. The generic nature of the risk map method, allows rapid updating and application to other diseases transmissible between wild birds and poultry.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Virus de la Influenza A
/
Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral
/
Aves
/
Gripe Aviar
/
Animales Salvajes
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Animals
País/Región como asunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Reino Unido