Time-varying effects of FOXA1 on breast cancer prognosis.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Results of previous studies on the associations between Forkhead box A1 (FOXA1) expression in breast cancer tissues and the prognosis varied depending on the follow-up durations. The present study would investigate whether there is a time-varying effect of FOXA1 in breast cancer tissues on the prognosis. METHODS: FOXA1 expressions were evaluated in 1041 primary invasive breast tumors with tissue microarrays by immunohistochemistry. Cox models with restricted cubic splines and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used to examine the associations between FOXA1 and the prognosis. Flexible parametric models were applied to explore the time-varying effect of FOXA1. RESULTS: Overall, the association between FOXA1 expression and the prognosis was not significant but varied on the time of follow-up. Compared to FOXA1 ≤ 270 of H-score, the hazard ratios (HRs) of death for those with 271-285 of FOXA1 expression increased from 0.35 (95% CI 0.14-0.86) at 6 months after diagnosis to 2.88 (95% CI 1.35-6.15) at 120 months with a crossover at around 36 months. Similar patterns were also observed for FOXA1 > 285 of H-score and for progression free survival (PFS). Moreover, when allowed both FOXA1 and estrogen receptor (ER) to change over time in the model (considering that ER had a similar time-varying effect), these time-varying effects remained for FOXA1 on both overall survival (OS) (P < 0.01) and PFS (P = 0.01) but were attenuated for ER (P = 0.13 for OS). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed an independent time-varying effect of FOXA1 on breast cancer prognosis, which would provide an insight into the roles of FOXA1 as a marker of breast cancer prognosis and may help optimize the medication strategies.