Development of a nomogram for predicting nasogastric tube-associated pressure injuries in intensive care unit patients.

ABSTRACT

Here, we aimed to build a nomogram model to estimate the probability of nasogastric tube-associated pressure injuries (NTAPIs) in intensive care unit(ICU)patients. This prospective cohort study included 219ICU patients with nasogastric tube between September 2019 and January 2020.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to develop the nomogram model. The resulting nomogram was tested for calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. Of the included patients, 58 developed NTAPIs, representing an incidence rate of 26.5%. Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that the prediction nomogram included C-reactive protein, vasopressor use, albumin level, nasogastric tube duration, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. The value of these predictors was again confirmed using theLasso regression analysis. Internal validation presented a good discrimination of the nomogram, with an area under the curve value of 0.850, and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.177). The decision curve analysis also demonstrated preferable net benefit along with the threshold probability in the prediction nomogram. The nomogram model can accurately predict the risk factors for NTAPIs, to formulate intervention strategies as early as possible to reduce NTAPI incidence.