Racial/Ethnic Differences in Arrest Probability Trajectories after Traumatic Brain Injury: A Model Systems Study.

Background: Previous literature has documented racial/ethnic differences in traumatic brain injury (TBI) risk, cause, treatment, and rehabilitation. The purpose of the current study was to investigate potential racial/ethnic differences in arrest probability trajectories over the first 10 years after TBI and whether injury and sociodemographic characteristics accounted for these differences. Methods: The current study included 13,195 participants with moderate-to-severe TBI in the TBI Model Systems National Database who had arrest data from at least one follow-up time point (Years 1, 2, 5, and/or 10). A series of hierarchical linear models assessed racial/ethnic differences in trajectories of arrest probability over these 10 years post-injury and then included socio-demographic and injury-related covariates. Results: White individuals with TBI had lower arrest probability trajectories than Black and Native American individuals, and Asian individuals with TBI had lower arrest probability trajectories than White, Black, Latinx, and Native American persons. In many cases, racial/ethnic disparities persisted even when injury and sociodemographic characteristics were covaried. Conclusion: These results suggest that rehabilitation clinicians should assess for post-injury arrest risk factors such as age, sex, education, pre-injury unemployment, arrest history, and substance abuse, particularly in Black, Latinx, and Native American groups, and integrate programming to lessen post-injury arrest probability and improve overall rehabilitation outcomes.