Transmission trends of the global COVID-19 pandemic with combined effects of adaptive behaviours and vaccination.
Epidemiol Infect
; 151: e39, 2023 02 20.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36803678
ABSTRACT
We developed a mechanism model which allows for simulating the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission dynamics with the combined effects of human adaptive behaviours and vaccination, aiming at predicting the end time of COVID-19 infection in global scale. Based on the surveillance information (reported cases and vaccination data) between 22 January 2020 and 18 July 2022, we validated the model by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting method. We found that (1) if without adaptive behaviours, the epidemic could sweep the world in 2022 and 2023, causing 3.098 billion of human infections, which is 5.39 times of current number; (2) 645 million people could be avoided from infection due to vaccination; and (3) in current scenarios of protective behaviours and vaccination, infection cases would increase slowly, levelling off around 2023, and it would end completely in June 2025, causing 1.024 billion infections, with 12.5 million death. Our findings suggest that vaccination and the collective protection behaviour remain the key determinants against the global process of COVID-19 transmission.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemiol Infect
Asunto de la revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
China