Death is overrated: the potential role of detection in driving virulence evolution.
Proc Biol Sci
; 290(1995): 20230117, 2023 03 29.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36987649
ABSTRACT
A common assumption in the evolution of virulence theory literature is that pathogens transmit better when they exploit their host more heavily, but by doing so, they impose a greater risk of killing their host, thus truncating infectious periods and reducing their own opportunities for transmission. Here, I derive an equation for the magnitude of this cost in terms of the infection fatality rate, and in doing so, I show that there are many cases where mortality costs are too small to plausibly constrain increases in host exploitation by pathogens. I propose that pathogen evolution may often be constrained by detection costs, whereby hosts alter their behaviour when infection is detectable, and thus reduce pathogen opportunities for onward transmission. I then derive an inequality to illustrate when mortality costs or detection costs impose stronger constraints on pathogen evolution, and I use empirical data from the literature to demonstrate that detection costs are frequently large in both human and animal populations. Finally, I give examples of how evolutionary predictions can change depending on whether costs of host exploitation are borne out through mortality or detection.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Evolución Biológica
/
Interacciones Huésped-Patógeno
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Animals
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Biol Sci
Asunto de la revista:
BIOLOGIA
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos