Long-term forecast of thermal mortality with climate warming in riverine amphipods.
Glob Chang Biol
; 29(17): 5033-5043, 2023 09.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37401451
ABSTRACT
Forecasting long-term consequences of global warming requires knowledge on thermal mortality and how heat stress interacts with other environmental stressors on different timescales. Here, we describe a flexible analytical framework to forecast mortality risks by combining laboratory measurements on tolerance and field temperature records. Our framework incorporates physiological acclimation effects, temporal scale differences and the ecological reality of fluctuations in temperature, and other factors such as oxygen. As a proof of concept, we investigated the heat tolerance of amphipods Dikerogammarus villosus and Echinogammarus trichiatus in the river Waal, the Netherlands. These organisms were acclimated to different temperatures and oxygen levels. By integrating experimental data with high-resolution field data, we derived the daily heat mortality probabilities for each species under different oxygen levels, considering current temperatures as well as 1 and 2°C warming scenarios. By expressing heat stress as a mortality probability rather than a upper critical temperature, these can be used to calculate cumulative annual mortality, allowing the scaling up from individuals to populations. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in annual mortality over the coming decades, driven by projected increases in summer temperatures. Thermal acclimation and adequate oxygenation improved heat tolerance and their effects were magnified on longer timescales. Consequently, acclimation effects appear to be more effective than previously recognized and crucial for persistence under current temperatures. However, even in the best-case scenario, mortality of D. villosus is expected to approach 100% by 2100, while E. trichiatus appears to be less vulnerable with mortality increasing to 60%. Similarly, mortality risks vary spatially In southern, warmer rivers, riverine animals will need to shift from the main channel toward the cooler head waters to avoid thermal mortality. Overall, this framework generates high-resolution forecasts on how rising temperatures, in combination with other environmental stressors such as hypoxia, impact ecological communities.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Cambio Climático
/
Respuesta al Choque Térmico
/
Anfípodos
/
Calentamiento Global
/
Organismos Acuáticos
País/Región como asunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Glob Chang Biol
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Países Bajos