Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States.

ABSTRACT

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, R0. This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific R0 values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. We focused on MSA populations after finding that these populations were more uniformly impacted by COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for R0 range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases. ONE-SENTENCE SUMMARY: Initial contagiousness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 varied over a 4-fold range across urban areas of the United States.