A nomogram predicting the relationship between recanalization time and successful endovascular recanalization of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion in a Chinese population.

ABSTRACT

Different recanalization times for endovascular interventions may affect the success of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion procedures. Nomograms can provide personalized and more accurate risk estimates based on predictive values. Therefore, we developed a nomogram to predict the probability of success of endovascular recanalization procedures for non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion. We performed a single-center retrospective analysis of data collected from patients who underwent endovascular treatment for non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion between January 2015 and December 2022. Multifactorial logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors affecting the success rate of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion procedures and to create nomograms. The model was differentiated and calibrated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) and calibration plots. Internal validation of the model was performed by using resampling (1000 replications). In total, 46 patients were identified and a total of 39 patients met the study criteria. Predictors in the nomogram included vascular occlusion proximal morphology, reversed flow of the ophthalmic artery, and recanalization time. The model showed good resolution with an ROC area of 0.917 (95% CI 0.814-0.967). The nomogram can be used to personalize, visualize, and accurately predict the surgical success of endovascular treatment of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion.