Neck circumference as an additional predictor of cardiovascular disease mortality: A multi-center prospective population-based study in northeastern China.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This study aimed to assess the potential of neck circumference (NC) and neck-to-height ratio (NHR) as predictors of future cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in a general population from Northeastern China. METHODS: A multi-center prospective study was conducted in Northeastern China, involving 18, 796 participants. The associations between NC or NHR and the incidence of overall CVD mortality, stroke mortality, and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality were examined using multivariate Cox regression models. Hazard ratios (HRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Reclassification analyses were conducted to determine the incremental predictive value of NC or NHR. RESULTS: NC was significantly associated with the risk of CVD mortality, independent of other anthropometric measurements for obesity. Individuals in the highest quartile of NC had a 1.83-fold (95% CI 1.29 to 2.61) and a 2.40-fold (95% CI 1.45 to 4.00) higher risk of overall CVD mortality and CHD mortality, respectively. Larger NC was significantly related to a heightened risk of ischemic stroke mortality, although no such association was observed with hemorrhagic stroke mortality. Furthermore, the risk of overall CVD mortality, stroke mortality, and CHD mortality increased by approximately 1.21 to 1.25 times per 1-SD change in NC. Similar findings were observed for NHR. The percentages of correct classification of overall CVD mortality improved by 12.1% and 16.3% after the addition of NC or NHR into established models, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: NC and NHR might be promising predictors of CVD mortality, with higher values indicating greater risk.