Evaluation and Prediction Analysis of 3- and 5-Year Relative Survival Rates of Patients with Cervical Cancer: A Model-Based Period Analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer remains a threat to female health due to high mortality. Clarification of the long-term trend of survival rate over time and the associated risk factors would be greatly informative to improve the prognosis of cervical cancer patients. METHODS: This retrospective study was based on data extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of the United States. The 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates of patients with cervical cancer during 2002-2006, 2007-2011, and 2012-2016 were analyzed. Period analysis was used to assess the variation in survival rate stratified by age, race, and socioeconomic status during the 15-year study period and then predicted the relative survival rate in the following period from 2017 to 2021. RESULTS: During 2002-2016, the 3-year relative survival rate of cervical cancer patients increased from 73.1% to 73.5% with a high jump between 2007 and 2011. This upward trend is expected to continue to 74.3% between 2017 and 2021. Patients older than 60 years, black ethnicity, or medium and high poverty status were likely to have a lower relative survival rate. CONCLUSION: This study confirmed the increased relative survival rate of cervical cancer patients over years and identified relevant risk factors. Targeted initiatives for elderly and socially underprivileged individuals may be able to mitigate inequality.

Why was the study conducted? Cervical cancer is one of the most common cancers endangering global women's health. Although there are currently relevant screening methods and vaccines, cervical cancer still leads to a higher risk of death in infected women and poses a serious threat to women's health. Therefore, it would be informative for future policy making if the risk factors affecting prognosis were assessed and the trend of long-term survival rate of patients with cervical cancer over time was predicted.What did the researchers do? We extracted data on cervical cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2002 and 2016 and used a model-based period analysis to assess the characteristics of the 3- and 5-year relative survival rates of cervical cancer patients stratified by age, race, and socioeconomic status. The relative survival rate for the period from 2017 to 2021 was projected.What did the researchers find? Our study found that the 3-year relative survival rate for cervical cancer patients increased from 73.1% to 73.5% between 2002 and 2016, with a jump between 2007 and 2011. Patients older than 60 years, those of black ethnicity, or those with medium and high poverty status were more likely to have a low relative survival rate.What do the findings mean? Our study confirms that the relative survival rate of cervical cancer patients has increased in recent years and has maintained an overall upward trend. Our findings suggest that age, race, and socioeconomic status are relevant risk factors. These findings would help us to predict future trends, better allocate medical resources, and optimize health policies to improve the prognosis of cervical cancer, such as targeting the elderly and other vulnerable groups.