Transmission dynamics of Zika virus with multiple infection routes and a case study in Brazil.
Sci Rep
; 14(1): 7424, 2024 03 28.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38548897
ABSTRACT
The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a serious global public health crisis. A major control challenge is its multiple transmission modes. This paper aims to simulate the transmission patterns of ZIKV using a dynamic process-based epidemiological model written in ordinary differential equations, which incorporates the human-to-mosquito infection by bites and sewage, mosquito-to-human infection by bites, and human-to-human infection by sex. Mathematical analyses are carried out to calculate the basic reproduction number and backward bifurcation, and prove the existence and stability of the equilibria. The model is validated with infection data by applying it to the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic in Brazil. The results indicate that the reproduction number is estimated to be 2.13, in which the contributions by mosquito bite, sex and sewage account for 85.7%, 3.5% and 10.8%, respectively. This number and the morbidity rate are most sensitive to parameters related to mosquito ecology, rather than asymptomatic or human-to-human transmission. Multiple transmission routes and suitable temperature exacerbate ZIKV infection in Brazil, and the vast majority of human infection cases were prevented by the intervention implemented. These findings may provide new insights to improve the risk assessment of ZIKV infection.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Aedes
/
Epidemias
/
Virus Zika
/
Infección por el Virus Zika
Límite:
Animals
/
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
America do sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
China