A cost-benefit analysis of WildFireSat, a wildfire monitoring satellite mission for Canada.
PLoS One
; 19(5): e0302699, 2024.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38781185
ABSTRACT
In anticipation of growing wildfire management challenges, the Canadian government is investing in WildFireSat, an Earth observation satellite mission designed to collect data in support of Canadian wildfire management. Although costs of the mission can be reasonably estimated, the benefits of such an investment are unknown. Here we forecast the possible benefits of WildFireSat via an avoided cost approach. We consider five socio-economic components suppression costs (fixed and variable), timber losses, property, asset and infrastructure losses, evacuation costs, and smoke related health costs. Using a Monte Carlo analysis, we evaluated a range of possible changes to these components based on expert opinions. The resulting Net Present Value (NPV) estimates depend on the presumed impact of using WildFireSat decision support data products, with pessimistic and conservative assumptions generating mission costs that typically exceed potential benefits by 1.16 to 1.59 times, while more optimistic assumptions generate benefits in excess of costs by 8.72 to 10.48 times. The analysis here excludes some possibly significant market and non-market impacts expected from WildFireSat due to data limitations; accounting for these additional impacts would likely generate positive NPVs under even cautious impact assumptions.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Análisis Costo-Beneficio
/
Incendios Forestales
Límite:
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS One
Asunto de la revista:
CIENCIA
/
MEDICINA
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Canadá