Development of a Risk Prediction Nomogram for Carotid Re-Stenosis in the One Year RECAST Registry.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The long term benefit of carotid angioplasty and stenting (CAS) can be reduced by recurrent stroke related to in stent re-stenosis (ISR). An individualised predictive tool is needed to identify ISR events. A nomogram for individual risk assessment of ISR ≥ 70% after CAS is proposed. METHODS: A national observational, prospective, multicentre registry was conducted between January 2015 and December 2020. Cohorts of patients with symptomatic or asymptomatic severe carotid stenosis who underwent CAS with a follow up of at least one year after CAS were included. Duplex ultrasound was used to assess in stent re-stenosis. Pre-operative factors were compared between the non-ISR and ISR groups. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression were used for variable selection. The nomogram was formulated and validated by concordance indices and calibration curves. An in stent re-stenosis risk table was generated for risk stratification. RESULTS: A total of 354 patients were included in the analysis. The ISR rate of ≥ 70% was 7.6% (n = 27). Peripheral arterial disease (hazard ratio [HR] 3.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23 - 8.24, p = .017), anterior communicating artery absence (HR 3.38, 95% CI 1.27 - 8.94, p = .016), diabetes mellitus (HR 3.34, 95% CI 1.21 - 9.26, p = .020), female sex (HR 2.99, 95% CI 1.04 - 8.60, p = .041), and pre-procedure pathological ultrasound vasoreactivity (HR 3.87, 95% CI 1.43 -10.50, p = .008), as independent risk factors for ISR of ≥ 70%, were included in the nomogram. The concordance index at 12 and 24 months was 0.83. In low risk groups, ISR of ≥ 70% occurred in 4.8% of patients during follow up compared with 56.2% of patients in the high risk groups (p < .001). CONCLUSION: The nomogram and risk evaluation score have good predictive ability for ISR. They can be used as practical clinical tools for individualised risk assessment.