Industrialization Mitigates Greenhouse Gas Intensity in China's Dairy Sector yet May Prove Insufficient to Offset Emissions from Future Production Expansion.

ABSTRACT

China's dairy farming is undergoing a critical transition from extensive to industrial systems. To achieve sustainable milk production within China's dual-carbon goals, understanding the multidimensional impacts of industrialization on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is imperative. This study comprehensively analyzed the implications of China's dairy industrialization on GHG emissions and explored future mitigation potential. Results indicated that industrial systems exhibited lower methane but higher carbon dioxide intensities, with net GHG intensity lower than other systems. During 2002-2020, China's milk production increased by 165%, while GHG emissions increased by 105% to 50.27 Tg CO2eq, accompanying an industrialization rate increased from 16% to 75%. The industrialization progress played a mitigating effect on GHG primarily through intensification within individual production systems before 2008 and transformation between systems post-2008. However, the industrialization's effect was relatively modest compared to other socio-economic factors. By 2030, 11.8 Tg CO2eq will be triggered by predicted milk production growth, but only 0.6 Tg can be offset by system transformation. Integrating measures to improve feed, herd, and manure management on industrial farms could decouple GHG emissions from milk production and achieve a carbon peak before 2030. We suggest transforming to improved industrial systems as a necessary step toward sustainable livestock production.