Novel decision tree models predict the overall survival of patients with submandibular gland cancer.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: While the accurate prediction of the overall survival (OS) in patients with submandibular gland cancer (SGC) is paramount for informed therapeutic planning, the development of reliable survival prediction models has been hindered by the rarity of SGC cases. The purpose of this study is to identify key prognostic factors for OS in SGC patients using a large database and construct decision tree models to aid the prediction of survival probabilities in 12, 24, 60 and 120 months. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result (SEER) program. Demographic and peri-operative predictor variables were identified. The outcome variables overall survival at 12-, 24-, 60, and 120 months. The C5.0 algorithm was utilized to establish the dichotomous decision tree models, with the depth of tree limited within 4 layers. To evaluate the performances of the novel models, the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were generated, and the metrics such as accuracy rate, and area under ROC curve (AUC) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 1,705, 1,666, 1,543, and 1,413 SGC patients with a follow up of 12, 24, 60 and 120 months and exact survival status were identified from the SEER database. Predictor variables of age, sex, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, tumor histology, summary stage, metastasis to distant lymph node, and marital status exerted substantial influence on overall survival. Decision tree models were then developed, incorporating these vital prognostic indicators. Favorable consistency was presented between the predicted and actual survival statuses. For the training dataset, the accuracy rates for the 12-, 24-, 60- and 120-month survival models were 0.866, 0.767, 0.737 and 0.797. Correspondingly, the AUC values were 0.841, 0.756, 0.725, and 0.774 for the same time points. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the most important predictor variables identified using the large, SEER database, decision tree models were established that predict OS of SGC patients. The models offer a more exhaustive evaluation of mortality risk and may lead to more personalized treatment strategies.