Could differential under-reporting of loneliness between men and women bias the gender-specific association between loneliness duration and rate of memory decline? A probabilistic bias analysis of effect modification.

ABSTRACT

Gender is an observed effect modifier of the association between loneliness and memory aging. However, this effect modification may be a result of information bias due to differential loneliness under-reporting by gender. We applied probabilistic bias analyses to examine whether effect modification of the loneliness-memory decline relationship by gender is retained under three simulation scenarios with various magnitudes of differential loneliness under-reporting between men and women. Data were from biennial interviews with adults aged 50+ in the US Health and Retirement Study from 1996-2016 (5,646 women and 3,386 men). Loneliness status (yes vs. no) was measured from 1996-2004 using the CES-D loneliness item and memory was measured from 2004-2016. Simulated sensitivity and specificity of the loneliness measure were informed by a validation study using the UCLA Loneliness Scale as a gold standard. The likelihood of observing effect modification by gender was higher than 90% in all simulations, although the likelihood reduced with an increasing difference in magnitude of the loneliness under-reporting between men and women. The gender difference in loneliness under-reporting did not meaningfully affect the observed effect modification by gender in our simulations. Our simulation approach may be promising to quantify potential information bias in effect modification analyses.