Effects of delay and error in the feedback structure of ecological management.

ABSTRACT

Ecosystems face various emergent uncertainties owing to factors such as climate change and accelerating anthropogenic impacts. Uncertainty is a major challenge and a barrier that ecosystem management faces, because it is difficult to precisely predict a priori risks that can have significant impacts on ecosystems. Hence, management with adaptive capacity is recommended to deal with such uncertainties, and feedback structures are central mechanisms for such flexible management. This study used mathematical models to clarify the specific impacts of feedback structures on ecosystem management, such as resource and wildlife management. In particular, the impact of errors in estimating ecosystem status when providing feedback and the impact of the time lag before feedback effects were implemented into management were examined. Overestimation of ecosystem status or a large time lag led to undesirable temporal oscillations in ecosystem status. However, these scenarios can be avoided when combined with management practices that limit the impact of management on the ecosystem, such as input control. Ecosystem management tends to have a large spatiotemporal scale, and implementing highly accurate monitoring and sophisticated feedback structures is difficult. However, the results suggest that effective ecosystem management with a simple feedback structure can be achieved through such complementary institutional design.