Tuberculosis trends in Central Serbia in the period 1956-1996.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To estimate tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends in Central Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Vojvodina provinces) in the period 1956-1996. DESIGN: The incidence and mortality data of tuberculosis in Central Serbia in the period 1956-1996 were analysed based on the annual reports of the Institute for Lung Diseases and Tuberculosis in Belgrade and the official data of the Republic Health Institute. RESULTS: During the period under observation, tuberculosis incidence decreased from 324.0 to 34.8/100 000 population, fitting the exponential model (y = 389.066e-(0.0689); F = 847.60; P = 0.000). Mortality rates decreased from 76.0 in 1956 to 0.9/100000 in 1982. Over the whole period (1956-1996) the decrease in mortality rates fitted the exponential model (y = 66.83e-(0.0922); F = 150.95; P = 0.000). The increase in mortality rates in the period 1982-1996 fitted cubic model (y = 7.647 - 2.674x + 0.359x(2)-0.013x(3); F = 12.17; P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Decreasing trends in tuberculosis incidence are the result of good control programmes. Changes in mortality trends are related to migration from war zones and poor economic conditions which hinder the detection and treatment of tuberculosis.