Predictive value of body mass index and waist circumference for metabolic syndrome in 6-12-year-olds.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To determine the predictive value of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) and their optimal cut-off points for metabolic syndrome (MetS), and also the incidence of MetS. METHODS: This study included 888 children, aged 6-12 years, who were followed for a mean of 6.6 years. BMI, WC and their optimal cut-off points to predict MetS were investigated. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of MetS was 10.7%. The adjusted ORs for age, sex and family history to predict MetS for BMI and WC z-scores were 2.6 (95% CI, 2.0-3.5) and 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9-3.5), respectively. In their correspondent models, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.68-0.79) for BMI z-scores and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.67-0.78) for WC z-scores with no statistically significant difference. The optimal cut-off values for BMI were 16.5 kg/m(2) for boys and 16.3 kg/m(2) for girls and those for WC were 57.5 cm for boys and 56.5 cm for girls. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that both BMI and WC have the same power to predict MetS and also children with higher BMI or WC are more susceptible to MetS. Moreover, a high incidence of MetS in children highlights the importance of interventional strategies during early childhood.